MillvilleWx

In laws near Laytonsville with just under a foot. 11.9” official with light snow. What a great storm to follow. I’ll be back for this weekend and next weekend though. Let’s reel in a few more shall we .

Walking off all those Cheetos. Leaves room for celebratory Cheetos .

I mean, it could, but the look to the north over the Atlantic is what’s leading to a pause in that occurring. If there was blocking, that would aid in having the low press south far enough and cutting off near our latitude. With a ridge, the system has more of an ability to cut closer to our latitude. The one thing we want is as strong of a high as possible to press the boundary just out of shear mgnitude. GFS was 1049 over Midwest before advancing eastward. The timing of the TPV progression is important too. Stars would need to align in order to get this to an all snow imo. I honestly think we end up with a snow to ice to snow west of the bay in this type of setup and apps get rocked with snow and a full out blizzard. Still a chance this fully cuts to our west, but ensemble guidances leans a little more southeast of the low progression, so I think that’s a better choice. This cold incoming means serious business. .

That’s why I said verbatim. The overall look screams a mix and that’s my feeling as well. The timing of the pressing arctic high will be the most important. You want to press the baroclinic ribbon far enough south so the surface low can cut under us. GFS does it enough to get snow at first, but once the low reaches our latitude, strong warm air advection off strong 850mb southeast flow generates nasty warm layer that runs back to the BR. You want that low to pass across Southern VA and exit at ORF to maintain a full snow profile. GFS would absolutely bring sub freezing temps west of bay, but that warm layer would crush a favorable snow environment. As is, it’s a high impact system with snow and ice and strong winds likely generating some power loss concerns. That’s something that will be on the table with this setup. .

This GFS Run was really close to an all out blizzard for Mid Atlantic. Really nasty for central and NW part of the sub verbatim. Fun times ahead. .

Getting some influence from the upper level feature moving in. I call it ULL, Upper Level Love. When it's a well defined and closed ULL, it's double the fun

Yeah. I watched the whole extended radar loop from the night and you were just missing the good stuff to the south. Hampstead probably cashed it was that close. At least it snowed to break the snowless drought and my god does the long range look sweet. I can't wait to be home for next week. I fly in by Noon Friday and by then, we should be tracking a pretty formidable event or two in the near future. Enjoy the snow with your fam. And you know, that whole football game today

Your area is right within my forecast right now. Not a bust anywhere in the entire region as far as I can see. Maybe the MD line, but that's it. Sorry @psuhoffman

This has been a fun storm to follow and watch unfold. Glad many are waking up to some pretty good scenery and higher than forecast totals. I'm not going to do a grade on my forecast until everything shuts off. Upper level piece later on should make for some fluffy snow and high ratios as it pulls through. Models are back and forth on where the best axis of snow will setup, but my guess is somewhere near I-95, then pulling east. I think a low key spot to enjoy the upper level fun will be interior eastern shore. Good times though and multiple areas should get 8+ out this system. That was not even on most people's expectations 36 hours ago. Southern stream systems are fun. Should be a nice start to what will be a very active 8 weeks incoming. Enjoy y'all

BUT THE HRRR!!! /s .

Hey guys. Here's my updated snowfall totals. After getting up at 315am this morning, I'm dog tired and will not be doing a long post this go around. We all know what's been transpiring in terms of model guidance. I think I'm still hedging conservative in spots, but this is my final call for the storm. Now, here's a great storm for everyone in here. Enjoy!! I'll be watching from the sidelines in the Lone Star state. Snowfall Forecast by Zone: Zone 1: Havre de Grace: 1-4" Bel Air: 2-5" Baltimore County Hereford Zone: 3-6" Timonium/Towson/Western Baltimore County: 3-7" Eastern Baltimore County: 3-6" Baltimore City: 3-6" Northern Carroll: 4-9" with local highest along Parr's Ridge (Manchester/Westminster/Hampstead/Mt Airy) Southern Carroll: 4-8" Howard County: 4-8" Eastern Frederick County: 3-7" Northwest MoCo: 4-8" Zone 2: East of Bay including all MD/DE counties: 4-10" with highest totals across interior areas including Easton/Kent Co/Interior Sussex Co. 3-7" along the Atlantic shore AA County: 5-10" with max to the south South-Central MD counties, including PG Co: 5-11" Central and Southern MoCo: 5-10" NW DC: 5-10" SE DC: 6-12" Center City DC: 4-9" NoVa: 6-12" Frederick County: 4-10" with highest in Western Fdk Co and along South Mountain/Catoctins BWI: 5-10" IAD: 5-10" DCA: 4-8" Zone 3: Valley Areas with elevation below 1200': 5-10" Appalachians and Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 1200-2400': 8-14" Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 2400': 10-16" Zone 4: Shenandoah Valley areas: 7-12" Central Va: 8-13" with highest to the east Southern MD: 6-12" SBY to OC: 4-9" Richmond and Areas south of Dashed Line: 2-8" with highest to northwest of Richmond. Mixing issues possible south of dashed line.

If that run came true, I'd run laps around my neighborhood with nothing but shorts and a smile

I thought we weren't allowed to post porn on this site?

Enjoy my man! Hope you get wrecked out there. Looks promising from everything I've seen along I-81 in VA

Radarscope and it's not even a question. Download that app now

I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything.

Can't not like the look. It's certainly looking to be a nice storm for many. Enjoy a good stout for me!

It's a little more than the previous run, but nothing eye popping by any means. The jet structure was a little better from hr 18 moving forward, but nothing that would scream a NAM like outcome. Still not bad. GFS isn't the model I would be following right now. Euro is probably the only global I would give credence to. ICON is hug worthy, but it's the ICON so..... lol

The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think?

Completely agree. I'm sitting on the sidelines out here in Texas, so I'll have my popcorn ready reading on here and watching web cams back home. I'll be back in less than a week for a vacation to see the family, so hopefully I get a nice storm in the future. Been boring as heck out here this winter.

Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall.

The deformation banding on that run was absurd. Even if 50% right on the total precip, that's a bonafide warning snowfall all the way to the border. I would not base any forecasts off that for the time being. But, if we see trends like that run continue, then maybe some triggers will be pulled. I'm with Wes, I would hate to be in Sterling's shoes right now.

The storm is about to happen, which means he's looking for the next one.

It's top 5 for the circumstance, but it has a long way to go before approaching the #1 status lol. 36-48 hours before Nemo in Feb 2013 in Boston, it had 55-60" near the metro. Nothing has come close haha