MillvilleWx

Snow Squall Warning might be broken out if the current Hi Res depiction for this afternoon comes true. Northern crew could get whacked pretty good with steep low level lapse rates mixing to 700mb. Gusts into the 40's pretty likely if that occurs with maybe even near 50 mph.

It very well could be. Squalls are a mess to contend with. I dealt with a few while I was at school in PA. Bring vis down below a 1/4 mile in a snap of the fingers.

Squalls are tough to gauge leading up to the event. It'll bounce around overtime and models mishandle them so often. It'll be a game time type of deal since it's convective based.

Steep low level lapse rates with mixing to just under 700mb would bring upper 30's to 40's under any of those squalls. Potential brief whiteout possible with these as they blow through. Very high ratio snow too. 15-20:1 without question.

The biggest issue with the NAM's is the model is prone to massive swings with just subtle changes in the upper levels. Idk if it's a spatial resolution issue or just the physics in the model are not capable of minor adjustments at the surface given the shifts aloft. The ground truth will probably lie somewhere between the current meso depiction and the global's. The jet streak strength and positioning over PA is really important for today. A more pronounced jet will likely generate a better qpf field and overall dendritic process.

The squall depiction on the NAM Nest still looks pretty prolific for north of I-70. Could be a fun day tomorrow for some. Potential low vis and brief heavy snow with big, fluffy dendrites.

The constant flips are probably why they aren't being weighted as heavily as the global's at this point. The whole long and shortwave pattern is probably difficult to discern for the NAM's at this point, but you have to lend some merit to it this close in. I would love to see what WPC and LWX are using for the basis of their forecast. Might be a blend of global handling of the H5 and H25 setup, coupled with the Super Ensemble plumes which are right where they have the forecast right now.

3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics.

I was noticing that too. There is a pretty stout area of PVA moving through in the PM around that time, so I wonder if a rumble of thunder is not out of the question. With lift like that through the DGZ, there should be some charge build up. We shall see

The 3km is showing a healthier expansion of the qpf further west due to the increased H7 frontogen along the Allegheny Front. Coupled with a solid jet streak placement over PA placing the area in the right entrance of the jet, this would provide the region with better lift, maxing both qpf and dendritic growth as the greatest omega will be positioned right within the DGZ (See pic below). This is all solid trends for west of the bay, but east of the bay might maintain a tongue of warmer air aloft, limiting the chances of seeing more prolific snowfall. However, as the trough axis swings overhead, a decent area of PVA will accompany the trough base, so a secondary burst of precip on the eastern shore is possible before exiting. Places like Parr's Ridge are obviously in the best spot due to the slightly colder temps locally and the added orographic enhancement as the front swings east. It'll be important to monitor the trends in guidance at 12z. Mesos SHOULD have a better handle on the setup closing in, so any step forward or backward could be pivotal to the final outcome. Have to like the trends this morning.

My wife doesn't want to move north of NC latitude, so I guess my snow days are done at home. I'll be renting a cabin in the mountains that's for sure lol

Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess. .

I had a great time visiting family and friends over the last 8 days. Got back into Midland last night and crashed with my wife once we got to the apartment. Wanted to see some people from the forum, but driving 1374 miles in 8 days and seeing people, my schedule was extremely booked. I’m def making time next time I’m in town. I haven’t paid any attention to weather in a several days. Mind a break. I saw nothing my whole trip except stupid cold last Monday. We’ll be shoveling feet of wind in Midland today. Texas way of welcoming me back lol. Will be in the 70’s with sun this coming weekend. What a stark change to back home. .

I told you covering yourself in Crisco is bad. #Crispy .

Weekend at my parents was great. Man, what a stark change Sunday morning was to this morning. Goodness. At the in-laws now. Still snow covered with a straight glacier now. Mappy and H2O are great people btw. It’s crazy how childish some people are. Keep doing great work guys! .

Near 60 along the coast. Crazy to think it’ll be 10 here tomorrow morning. .

46F and mist on the shore. I had 3-4” of crab soup though. I’ll call it a success .

Dang. That stinks .

Lmao! I’ll let you know! .

In Dallas now waiting for my departure for BWI. Let’s dial up some snow end of next week, shall we?@H2O Break out those sheets! .

Might be Massanautun (I can't remember how to spell that at all lol). I'd say Saturday if she doesn't mind the rain during the afternoon or evening. Sunday morning is when the front rolls through and we should improve precip wise by the afternoon. It'll be pretty windy though. I'd say Sunday just so she's safe from the precip.

And Cat 5's up the bay. Poor Bob

Camp David jack

FYP