MillvilleWx

I'm curious looking at the run, but it almost looks like some kind of inverted trough feature on the GFS right across central MD. This actually isn't the first model to show this feature either. I wonder if there could be something sneaky like this in the cards that won't be solved fully until closer in?

It was a clean 700mb low pivot under the area on a transfer. The low intensified over near the coast, allowing for the 700mb jet to enhance overhead. This is a classic maturing phase of a cyclone prior to full occlusion. This is also one of the reasons why the surface low sits off OCMD and just doesn't move.

Anthony is 100% spot on. The RGEM was a great example where it wasn't textbook in terms of 5H propagation and overall axis still slightly positive tilted, but it still delivered. The atmospheric dynamic is prone to subtle changes, so for a situation where transfers of energy are in question, the fluidity of everything will have significant feedback concerns in downstream trough/ridge orientations and that in turn translates immediately to the surface. Hopefully some of the questions about feature placement and strength get answered soon, but I have a feeling we might see subtle differences up to the 11th hour since the sensitivity of the setup is that privy to change. Get the whiskey on hand

All good! My timing is just impeccable. The RGEM and ICON certainly would calm the nerves of many in here. Pretty solid runs for both. The intricacy of these little vorts can cause mass chaos with setups like these. Need a clean transfer for this to work no matter what. I'm curious for the GFS and Euro and see where they have that vort over New England.

Damnit @stormtracker, I had a post all set in the other thread and you closed it as I was submitting Anywho, I was going to say the RGEM is much cleaner on the transfer, the 7H low passes cleanly underneath with a strengthening as it pivots south of the area. This allows for the 700mb jet to enhance and point into the region, leading to strong 7H frontogenic forcing placed along I-95 and points just southeast.

I think that's a very solid forecast imo given the trends right now. I like 3-6" with max to 8" for areas south of I-70. This has the 270 corridor from Urbana on SE as the jackpot spot given the WAA trajectory.

This was the biggest takeaway mulling over guidance this morning. This is shifting from any mega storm potential for around here. A solid WSW is still on table for sure, but 1'+ is looking less likely with the trough looking like that. 7H was meh until too late too

The 7H low really doesn't get going until its to the southeast of the area. It's fairly mature into the OH Valley, but then becomes discombobulated as it tries to pivot under the area. It doesn't get its act together until late, so the area just gets some passing snow showers. It's a much better run for NYC/LI as the low CCB gets cranking around CNJ and then moves north. It was close, but no cigar for the area. Still has a solid front end piece that will whiten the area and it's still colder than any GFS run in terms of thermals.

Yes, normally. You can slowly adjust up and most of the public will not notice. Start high and it busts, you lose trust. Bottom line. 99% of the public has zero clue about weather, just like a large chunk don't understand many other aspects of normal services provided, they just follow them.

This. I was looking at the model trend loop at 5H for the Euro and this has been a big shift in the last 4 runs. The positive tilt would cause the surface reflection to scoot further east before being captured. Last night, the ULL actually became a bit diffuse and then redeveloped just off to the southeast. It would pretty much put any major storm idea to bed. Most of the model suite does not do it as this extreme level and still manages to crush everyone without such a dramatic shift. The GFS thermal profile is absolutely laughable, and it was so for our Historic event in west TX the very end of last year. It was AWFUL. We refused to use it because of its thermals. Idk why it's as bad as it is. I'm keeping an eye on the RGEM/NAM/Nam Nest today for any possible hints at changes down the line. They may not be the best at a long term scale due to the nature of model chaos, but they can signify little trends that might be signals down the line. The one thing I would like to see today is a continuation of of the WAA piece aiming at the area directly and either maintaining its QPF field or becoming more juiced to get places closer to WSW criteria before any thought of the coastal.

After staying up for 24 hrs yesterday, I passed out so hard and woke up a hour ago. What did I miss? lol Quite the trend in models last night. I don't have much to add that hasn't been touched on. I'll be around for the 12z runs today.

I'm working to get to Sterling, State College, or Boston. Lot of hard work to get to those offices, but I'm doing my best

Texas has some things going for it. My area doesn't, but I love San Antonio and Dallas/Plano area. Those are fun as hell to visit.

@stormtracker I know we're not allowed to post porn on here, but I'm sure you can make one exception.....

Not so much hate as missing home. Out here just ain't me or my wife's flavor. I am jealous I'm not back home for this one though haha

I will do my best! I'll be giving my two cents often in the MA sub, but I'll pop in for thoughts for y'all as well.

No problem! Someone in here is gonna get nuked. Question is who? Still a bit more to answer, but I love an area like true south-central PA for this one. Harrisburg/York/Gettysburg

That was a pretty funny, unintentional post in the MA sub. I see this being a big storm that'll make many happy in both sub-forums. Wish I was back east for it! I'll be popping in occasion to check in. Got a nice 4 day weekend after a string of mid shifts. Let the good times roll

I'd be real damn excited if I were any of you living from I-80 to the PA line

Good lord I hope this model is right for once

I was just peeking at the 3H level to see the jet structure. On the last panel, you can see the increased ridging downstream as the upstream trough amplifies. The SLP will nestle right inside the right entrance region of the jet, so the low center in NC would likely move N to NNE for a period, but as the trough axis goes negative and the 5H low cuts SE into WV/VA, that's when you'll see the surface reflection hit the brakes and get pulled back towards the coast. It's something the Euro has outlined pretty well for last few days. GFS was too progressive in nature with the trough, allowing the low to be further out to sea before getting pulled back as trough went negative late. So, if you drew a line from the low center, draw it NNE up off Wallops, then cut west, drift, then slide ENE. That's a favorable motion for this type of setup.

Occlusion is when the cold conveyor belt (CCB) catches up to the warm conveyor belt (WCB), or for a lack of better terms, when the cold front on the base of a low wraps up to the warm frontal boundary. Occlusions are the peak maturity of a baroclinic cyclone. Storms that vertically stack reach occlusion phase and move at a slower pace.

It doesn't read like Tip because it's not a thesis with indexes and a freakin table of contents (I love Typhoon Tip btw. Incredible poster). HM wouldn't troll. Bob is probably sharpening his shovel