MillvilleWx

I'm out of likes apparently, so take my vocal "like"

I like your spot for this one! Could be nuking snowballs for multiple hours before it pulls out. Might need to set and alarm and brew the coffee beforehand, but might be worth it!

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range.

It has that "Look" for a pattern that would support the potential. That, and snow squalls as the PV pivots to the east over Ontario and we get a strong PVA signature with the push of the arctic boundary. Both are on the table with this one. GFS and ICON show basically a pure ice hell scenario.

The GFS is the 7th circle of hell if you like light ZR with temps in the mid-20's

GFS has a really nice negatively tilted trough axis on 06 & 12z Sunday. Good placement too for everyone. Definitely a very nice run

Might be some orographic enhancement that coincides with the mid-level frontogen as it propagates to the north and west. There's typically a westward band that develops with southern stream disturbances as the s/w trough pivots underneath and creates a small area of enhanced upper forcing to the north. I can see that happening with this as well. There will be a lucky winner on the western fringes of this system I feel. Where is anyone's guess. I'd say your hood out to Tucker and Pocahontas Co, WV up into Alleghany Co MD will have the best chance due to topography and their positioning to the north of the s/w trough.

If you LOVE it, then I MUST go try it since you seem to have great food taste and cooking skills

You should see some high ratio fluff on Sunday morning. Will be a beautiful morning out there.

12z HRW WRF-NSSL looks mighty tasty for the region. I like this model for non-complicated setups. It does a great job, and is part of the HREF (Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast) grouping.

But have we measured the angle of the cold?

I'm actually not sure how they implement it. I know we don't use Kuchera out here unless we are under an ULL since our ratios are typically 7-8:1 in the valleys and Permian Basin and 10:1 in the mountains above 4k ft. I'm not a big fan of Kuchera in most setups because I believe it smooths and takes an average despite clear as day highs and lows pending mesoscale banding. I usually use QPF and then adjust based on expectations and local climo. We have a tool at our office that also generates snowfall based on certain thermo criteria and we can adjust for time frames to get a total. Great to utilize on GFE for gridded forecasts.

Man, you might need a cigarette if that verified. It's going to be a gorgeous morning down that way on Sunday. I've been honking the mid-level fronto for a few days. It's been hefty on guidance.

I wouldn't take the precip maps (QPF) to verbatim because there will be some pretty good bands and pockets of where others will see a lot more precip and others will suffer. Nature of the beast in the meso sense. Still a good moisture advection signal, but the uniformity of 1+" QPF is very unlikely in this setup. 0.6-0.8 uniformity back to perhaps US15 is possible with 1+" jacks in between a certainty with whoever can get sustained banding. Also, take into consideration some orographic enhancement over Parrs Ridge and the Blue Ridge out west. Should be some decent snow totals out of this. 3-6" with local to 10" is still my call for the area I just outlined. If NAM amplification is to be taken verbatim, might have to push my heaviest westward extent to I-81. Jury still out, but some snow will fall back that way, imo no matter what.

Man, @Disc and @Buddy1987 will love this run. Should be a nice quick nuking down in their hoods

This is going to be a run where people west of the Fall line will appreciate. Looks like a nice hit incoming for I-95 east to Cambridge. S/w is beginning to take a negative tilt beyond that point I mentioned yesterday (Longitudinally from Nashville/Indy on east).

Agreed. I know my back prefers that as well. I remember I visited my friends doing the OWLeS project in upstate NY in the winter of 2013-14. They were housed off the finger lakes (Lake Seneca) in Penn Yan, NY. It snowed everyday while I was up there and it was the fluffiest damn snow I've ever seen. They used to just take a big broom and clear the walk ways. I was like, "Man, now that's what I'm talking about!!"

Just through the night runs, I like your spot and with a bit more amplification of the s/w trough, the jack could extend up to your area. I still like a bit south of you right now as a place like Dover to Smyrna looks like they will be a great location for this one.

That's, "Clear your driveway like blowing out candles on a cake" type of snow

This the main reason I see the jackpot region being to the west of SBY as I think some warm air intrusion within the lower boundary layer will change precip over to sleet or even rain pending rates. Highest prob for rain will be the immediate coast and points 10 miles inland.

I heard on the radio this morning that it's Shower with your Friend Day. I know what you'll be doing later today

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

I see exactly what you mean. It's even more pronounced at hour 9. Storm cancel?

A LITERAL line of storms in Alabama/Mississippi right now. I'm actually stunned