MillvilleWx

Well, I finally got to look at things for the storm and man, it's a pretty dynamic setup that should drop the hammer SOMEWHERE in this sub-forum, but the question is....where? Let's take a look at the 500mb setup There's a prolific 500mb shortwave (s/w) currently rotating around the base of a mean trough with closed reflection over northern AL. Historically, this is a great position for the sub-forum to cash in, so long as the ULL doesn't mess itself on the trek eastward. As you can see, it is forecasted to not only hold, but actually strengthen as it crosses the App front with a negative tilt of the shortwave trough. This provides a textbook level divergent signature downstream ahead of the ULL and attendant s/w. What happens is an explosion of the precip field with convective prevalence due to maxed ascent on the left exit region of the 500mb jet max. Also, here's another piece to tickle the fancy.... Here is the 700mb presentation on Monday morning. A closed 700mb low cuts across the NC/VA line which is a fantastic track for areas near Rt 50 and south as VV's will be off the charts on the northern periphery of the 7H low. This puts the NoVA area from Fairfax to the east in the core of the ascent within the mid-level profile. Looking at the 7H frontogen picture using the NAM Nest, you can see a distinct signature over NoVA into SoMD and the lower Eastern Shore with a convergent pattern within and just north of the main frontogenic forcing. This is where the most prolific banding would occur for those with winter precip. Another maximum will occur on the lead side of the low due to the moisture fetch off the Atlantic from SE flow (This is actually important for the snow lovers on the Lower Eastern Shore). Now, go back and look at the 500mb gif I posted above, There's a s/w zipping eastward out of the northern Midwest that will put a straight edge to the northern side of the precip field. It's a developing confluent signature that will create a sharp cutoff on the northern side of the mid-level moisture field, which means someone will get hung out to dry, literally where this ends up developing. I will say there is a distinct northern mini max potential about 30-50 miles south of the main convergent area created by the confluence. This area typically maxes with the localized ascent, plus the favorable thermodynamics at play. Don't be surprised of some interesting totals coming out of areas within that zone to the north of where the main area gets slammed. So, when it comes to the dynamic nature of the mid and upper-levels, there will be no shortage of ascent to work off, and that in turn will help establish a healthy area of precip for the event, especially those within the perfect setting of the mid and upper closed lows. Now, lets talk about the caveat to the setup, thermal profiles. Right now, we have modest cold air advection (CAA) areawide with drier boundary layer air working behind the front that slid through earlier. This is important as wet-bulbing at both the lowest 100m of the boundary layer AND the layer b/w 600-800mb will generate the ptype separation a few hrs after the precip begins. Right now, thermals are borderline for the first 3-6 hrs of the event as sleet will likely mix or be the predominant ptype for the very beginning. As the mid and upper levels traverse eastward, you'll see a considerable cooling aloft that will mix into the boundary layer and change everything to snow from northwest to southeast. Areas on the very northern edge might only see a brief period of liquid and/or sleet before completely changing to snow. I think the area from Rt 50 south to the AKQ area will be the sleet zone for the first stage of the event. This area is also in the benefit of being within the "crush zone" for precipitation due to the expected ascent from the mid-level frontogen. There will probably be a period where sleet/snow mixes with massive flakes before shifting to all snow and then raging with continuous large aggregates. Boundary layer will be improving through the AM, so ratios will start pretty meager, but quickly shift to a climo norm, perhaps final 3 hrs ending around an avg of 12:1 with some places seeing 15-20:1 pending local banding. As I see it, there will be a line about 30-50 miles wide of pretty decent snowfall with the northern edge tapering back in a gradient caused by the confluent area to the north. Here's my current thoughts on snow totals. This is all from everything I've looked at and adjusted based on current ground temps needing some time to recover from the warmth earlier today. Hope everyone here gets some snow. Enjoy y'all!!

Shortwave trough over AL is pretty fierce this evening. Friends in AL reporting TSSN in Tuscaloosa. That ain't too shabby. Looking at stuff now. Will report back in time.

I spent 4 years of my life torturing myself with a myriad of math and science that most people would cry over. I slaved over derivations, exams, and post-mortem analysis just to be able to watch New England and everyone else enjoy the weather 75% of the time over myself. I also spend time clamoring over storms that I won't see, so never underestimate my no-life levels sir

Guys. I still have no clue what is going on. Haven’t seen a single model run today. I will try to look at stuff tonight and come up with a blurb, but I’m very late to the party. .

31/13 light dusting of dust .

I’ve been gone for 72 hours and this happens. What the F is going on? I honestly haven’t looked at anything, but I did see a tweet posting the 5H look becoming increasingly less progressive allowing for a deeper, more neutral tilt to the shortwave trough. Considering the thermal gradient provided by the east bound cold air mass, we’ll probably see a nice area of baroclinicty on the lead side of the trough/ULL. The attendant height rises ahead of the deepening trough help bring a great NW pull of the precip field as the low pressure ramps up. If you look at the 7H moisture panel, it tells a lot of the story. Sneaky little sucker here. Like areas along and south of Rt 50 for the time being, but areas north could get into the fun. I’m on the road all day tomorrow, so won’t be able to look at much. Will peruse when I can. Good luck y’all .

Thanks again you guys for the well wishes for my wife. Greatly appreciated. Forecast for Taos Ski Resort is 1-2' of powder from Friday AM thru Saturday afternoon. I'll be sending pictures

Thanks Matt! I try to write things in a semi-technical format that is both scientifically and layman's terms appropriate. I know this is a good forum to let the nerd come out, so I'll try my best to make it sound cohesive lol Appreciate the kind words and well wishes on behalf of my wife. It means a lot from everyone

The troughing and anomalous ridging in AK is the biggest culprit right now, which plays favorably into a sturdy Nina ENSO state. To make matters more pronounced, the ridging position and strength has actually been significantly daunting as standard dev of heights over the western half of AK are ~+5-6 sigma with a accompanying temp deviation of +4 sigma within the typical confines of the boundary layer. This allows for a significant downstream trough along the PAC coast with the opposite in terms of height field anomalies. Anytime you see snow and cold in Seattle, it's not a good sign downstream in our area. This provides a solid signature for a budding/resilient SER that will fight tooth and nail any cold prevalence for the Mid Atlantic. Now, if the ridge can relax and PNA can revert to slight neg signature, or neutral preferably, this would allow for cold temps to have an ability to move eastward creating a nice baroclinic zone from the plains to the Mid Atlantic. Waves of cold can carve out the baroclinic ribbon overtime, so that's why the winter isn't completely out of the question, imo. If the base state of the PAC remains undisturbed and we only see minor undulations of the PNA and ridge reflection over AK, then yes, the area is in huge trouble. Even still, a modestly carved baroclinic zone can still yield chances in the prime cold season. Southern stream is likely to be somewhat muted outside a few cases this winter because this is very typical of what happens in successive Nina ENSO's. Don't give up hope, but also don't anticipate some huge rebound this winter unless there's a wild change in the base state of the PAC.

Thanks! Staph is really scary. Never believed how much damage it can do to you until I saw what it did to my wife's hand. Crazy what is out there. Have a glass of the good stuff for me, will ya?

Thank you. It was one of the scariest moments I've ever personally been affected by. Modern medicine is a marvel, I can tell you that much. I'm happy I get to spend New Years in a beautiful place like that with her. Always wanted to do something like this and thought this was a time to do it.

So, some of you have know about what happened to my wife from Twitter, but I never posted here since I've been crazy busy. My wife came down with an acute hand infection that ended up tunneling 3-4" along the side of her right hand. It was so bad, she was admitted to the hospital and ended up staying for three nights. They pumped her with antibiotics and had to do surgery to remove an abscess that grew near the infection site. Well, turned out it was an aggressive form of staph, and she was put on a strong antibiotic that through sensitivity tests determined it was what would knock out the infection for good. Considering my wife's health history with her heart, I was pretty worried to say the least, but she's well on the mend and doing considerably better. She will make a full recovery and I've helped her all through the process, all while returning to work the day after she finally came home. This all happened a few weekends ago, so she's been on the healing trend for a while now. To celebrate, we are embarking on a trip to Taos, NM where a beautiful ski town awaits to take in the beauty of Northeast NM. A forecast of at least 4-8" of fresh snow is currently progged at Taos Ski Resort when we head up for New Years Eve and Day, and really judging by guidance, could very well go higher than that thanks to upslope. Needless to say, it'll be a beautiful way to ring in the New Year and to celebrate health and love. We are looking forward to a bit of unplugging and enjoying nature and company. Will try to pop in with pictures when I can

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate in the sub-forum!! I hope your day is relaxing, and filled with joy with family, friends, and that random cousin who keeps mentioning hour 384 on the GFS

You guys are absolutely killing me over here

That's it. I'm coming over

2022-23 gonna be rockin! Hopefully I'll be home for it by then

Idk if anyone bets on here, but the line for Davante Adams just opened at 94.5 yards on multiple major betting sites. Go bet the over with your entire 401k. You're welcome

Generally speaking, MA climo has a propensity to have some decent snow chances following epic cold regimes due to the baroclinic zone pushed south for a time which usually precludes a wave to the south that eventually pulls back north when the harsh cold relaxes and the moisture field from the wave moves up into a primed antecedent airmass. SWFE events typically have some of the nicer snowfalls in the area, but of course they can switch over to IP/ZR thanks to the enhanced SW flow causing boundary layer warming. Our biggest snowfalls are always phased, split stream events that align perfectly, but those are so far and between, but that's why they are special. Having a -NAO is very important for us to get those bigger storms, most of the time at least because they cause a slow down of the upstream wave pattern and allow for increased meridional components, thus opening the door for phasing or waves passing south of 37N, which to me is the magic latitude for potential in these parts. We have our sweet spots, and ours is around that 34-37N lat where as places like Philly want it a little further to the north.

Literally what I wrote above haha. A dang shame that the lead wave just completely petered to insignificant in the short term, but it happens. Looks like the "winner" of any snow in the sub will probably be confined to the Lower Eastern Shore or back into VA somewhere. 1" max, if we can even get that to occur.

Looking at the changes at 5H on the 00z GFS from last night to tonight's 00z run is pretty significant in the grand scheme of things. The height rises out ahead disappeared with less amplification of the lead wave, leading to a flat disturbance that leaves much to be desired. I mentioned this morning that the GFS was likely too gung-ho on the potential and the Euro too paltry with mainly nothing. I did think they would meet in the middle to a T-2" snow somewhere in the sub, and that seems plausible, although T-1" may be more applicable considering the short term trend in the strength of the lead s/w and the fact the digging s/w over Minnesota keeps getting held back a touch, which is key in its interaction with the wave over KY/WV as it moves eastward. The weaker the interaction, the de-amplification pattern downstream would hold merit, leading to a light northern edge with a sharp cutoff due to confluence over Quebec. Still something to monitor, but could be more in the realm of mood flakes for the Rt 50 corridor over to @usedtobe neck of the woods. Tough break, but it is early in the season still. Welcome to Nina's

GFS certainly bullish with the trailing s/w diving out of Minnesota leading to enhanced jet core dynamics over you guys. Euro is weaker, but actually carries a more formidable 5H jet on the lead wave. Might be a little under done on the Euro side, but still not like the GFS. I would say there's some compromise likely between the two models. I think GFS is too amped, but the Euro is too light given the favorable 5H setup. Still a T-2" deal for some in the region, but better than a shut out. That lead wave needs to stay amped regardless, or it will be curtains.

Can count on one hand the number of times those events worked out. It's not all my fingers either, I can tell you that haha. Best one in my memory was one when I was in college in November of all months. Back in Baltimore.....meh

There's not much more that needs to be dissected in the upper air pattern on the GFS and Euro to see why the two are so different. Here's the Euro for 12z Wednesday. Look at the amplitude of the flow out ahead of the s/w that's moving through the Tenn. Valley. The height rises are almost non-existent, meaning the diffluent pattern is aimed at VA with weak PVA over MD to offer some light snow chances that'll amount to T-1" totals with 1-3" south of Fredericksburg. Now, let's look at the 06z GFS.... Look at the vigor of the s/w over the Tenn. Valley and the attendant height rises out ahead of the disturbance. It's night and day where the diffluent pattern downstream is all the way up into MD/PA, meaning the mean QPF shield would be focused in our neck of the woods. Now, the thermal profile is more touchy in the beginning with some sleet/zr depictions at first, but when the upstream s/w over Minnesota catches up to the lead s/w, it amplifies the disturbance nearby and the dynamics aloft aid in changing precip back to snow for the back half of the storm, especially for areas north Rt 50. This is the best type of progression for a light-mod event with 2-5" possible for a larger coverage of the sub-forum. Keep an eye on those features as they are the main players in this ordeal. Flow will be fast, so don't expect any super amplification on this one. Quick and dirty is how you rack up stats in these parts outside the KU's and SWFE's.

Certainly not a bad look if you want precip chances, especially any prospects of winter weather. Looks like the Eastern CONUS will be under some formidable ridging around mid-month with undulations in the upper flow every 5-7 days or so prior. After that, the gradient pattern starts to develop with the extension of the SE Ridge along the Gulf coast up to Mid Atlantic lat. This will probably be a period to watch as any waves passing underneath can deliver some snowfall and/or wintry precip. This is defined pattern that's not capable for KU's, but this is a textbook way to score a few minor to even moderate events, if things break right. Source region of cold is building into something fairly formidable for later in the winter as Siberia over to NW Canada and Alaska have been extremely cold with more snow/ice build up further southeast into Manitoba expected next few weeks. The cards are shuffling, but can the area get dealt pocket pair or 2/7 off?.... We shall see!

If Antonio Gibson can do work, I will be happier than a hog eating poo.