MillvilleWx

Almost fully recovered from my first bout with Covid. 0/10 don't recommend Good news is Paxlovid is amazing if you can take it while having Covid. The headaches and fatigue were brutal. The cinderblock feeling in the chest also was not appreciated. And trying to mess with my blood glucose levels being diabetic. Overall, dissatisfied customer. Will be speaking with the manager....

This storm is a classic case of CAD with the fall line and west the primary beneficiary of any winter precip. Judging by initial thermals off guidance, the storm will start as some snow out by I-81 and MAYBE a short period in the beginning for places along and west of the fall line. 925/850mb winds increase out of the SE during the 12-15z time frame, likely when we see the advection of warm air within the boundary layer that's pivotal to ptype. At the surface, the wedge of cold air will be tough to erode west of the BR with 30-35F likely to hold through a majority of Thursday. NBM 25th percentile shows places like Winchester/MBG/Cumberland hanging tight around 31-33F for an extended period of time with a textbook ZR signature on soundings from deterministic models. A light icing event is probably best suited for places east of US15 with more ice located west of the US15 divide, especially in valleys where cold air will take longest to scour out. Currently looks like a high-end Advisory event for I-81 and west with some WSW potential if the CAD signature shows more staying power. The 925-700mb is getting torched no matter what, so don't feel disgruntled if you see the snow chances eroded with mainly ZR/IP as the primary ptypes during the event. The metros should see very little icing, but a light glaze prior to 9am is possible before we see temps mix efficiently above 32F as SE flow ramps up the second half of the morning, through the rest of the day. Obviously if cold trends point to a colder start, then everyone could see Advisory level icing with warnings out by I-81 and the eastern WV hill country. We've seen that before, but as @WxUSAF mentioned, cold air within the BL gets eroded faster than normal. Especially early season where local water temps are hovering in the 50s.

You just want to go to Dogfish Head Brewery in the snow again, don't you Squidward?

Final Guess Here. Upped a few totals. Hope I bust low BWI: 15.5" DCA: 12.2" IAD: 18.3" RIC: 5.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.8"

I am intrigued by this 5H evolution down the pike. Might have to wander out of hibernation

Just a smidge too north. Otherwise, heart of this is looking good. Might have low balled…

Heck yeah we do! I wish I was up there for this one my man. We want to travel next year, so we may be up in your neck of the woods. I’ll hit you up! Enjoy the mountains of snow

Could be a little too south given the flow. Again, pretty quick forecast. May adjust about 20-25 miles north either side.

My quick and non-sophisticated map/forecast for the event.

So, been on midnight shifts the past week and felt a disturbance in the force. Looks like some snow eh?

Heavy Leaf Warning for areas east of the Chesapeake Bay Leaf rates of 250-300/hr Total Accumulation: 1000-2000 leaves plus 2 Aleve

Early Guess. Will update later in the month BWI: 14.2" DCA: 10.4" IAD: 16.3" RIC: 5.5" Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.8"

Also, Key Lime pie from Sparky’s in Marathon, FL might be one of the five best things I’ve ever eaten. Everytime we go back, it’s like I slipped into heaven, so they had to take me back in a wheel chair and somehow pie is served. St. Peter is a nice dude

I can agree with this. I would do unspeakable things for a really good German Chocolate Cake. I think you found a flaw in my statement

Carrot Cake > Chocolate Cake All interviews and threats can be made in my PM's I will not be taking questions at this time

I’m heading to bed, but the last thing I want to mention is the longevity at which hurricane force winds will be felt from this storm from the coast to the central portion of the state. Damage from prolonged winds of that magnitude tend to be worse than a typical hit and run. The vegetation in that area of FL will be altered for years to come, and salt water inundation will cripple tree root systems to the point where they’ll have to be rehabbed back to life. This happened in the Lower FL Keys with Irma. It’ll be the same for the coastal locales running from Bonita Springs up to Englewood. Brutal

Went from EWRC to going gang busters without a hitch. Def not always the case historically. Going to be a beast of burden up until landfall. Thankfully my parents got the heck out of dodge (Up near Sarasota).

This storm is as healthy as its ever been in its life cycle. Good lord

No doubt about that. Their house is built to withstand Cat 5, so not concerned about that part. But what the wind blows into it is a whole other story. Flooding will def be terrible

Excellent write-up @Terpeast I'll be following along this winter on this cause-effect regime possibility

Posted this in the Mid Atlantic Thread: They moved in back in early May after getting it built near Lakewood Ranch. Tough intro to living down their permanently. Hopefully everything is okay when they get back. I've been working midnight shifts and keeping tabs on the storm. I was staying in touch with @WxWatcher007during his excursion to Nova Scotia earlier in my string of shifts. Glad everything went well there. Now for round two with Ian. Can someone turn off the Tropics please.....

Well, it finally happened. My parents moved into their new home near Sarasota (15 miles inland) and will be evacuating tomorrow to Ft Lauderdale. Looks like they will take a hit head on for their area. Their house is a fortress, so not too concerned about its integrity, but it'll certainly be an unwelcomed present.

Hello gang! Long time no talk. Hopefully everyone is doing well back east. I am currently staying as cool as I can in the eternal oven that is Texas. I wanted to drop in and say hello, and let y'all know I have some applications submitted to jobs back closer to home (All east of the Mississippi at least). Fingers crossed I'm back closer to where I want to be! Have a great rest of the summer and let's get to fall!

Man, I am just now checking in on this event for back home. I'm glad everyone is safe, but losing power in the summer sucks and all the tree damage is depressing. I was on the road traveling back to TX from Nashville this weekend, so I had no clue until my friend at home texted me. Saw the radar images and they are pretty astounding for back east. Definitely one to remember.