MillvilleWx

Hope y'all are enjoying the snow today. It may not have been the 6-10" potential a few days ago, but snow is snow. Especially during a day like Super Bowl Sunday. Sit back, grab a cup of joe, and watch the parachutes fall if you got'em. Enjoy

Thanks Katie! Used an ArcGIS site to create my own map from previously made shapefiles. Lots of awesome stuff on that website. I saved my map for future use too

This might actually work

Probably want to post this in the right thread

Final call map below Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating.

I'm trying to picture someone going outside to catch a snowflake in their mouth, and get nailed in the forehead by a bratwurst

I forgot to convert to metric. It's actually 10cm. But it'll be falling so hard, you'll be able to hear the flakes

It's like we're the same person, but I'm taller and face is different

May want the pick axe too

He's.....something haha

Damn dude. I would literally forecast 4" for you haha. I'd take the under right now, but 3-4" is pretty good bet atm.

Are you insinuating that I don't know the facts of the storm? What you posted isn't a fact. It's a marginal dissemination of 1/30th of a model run with a projected sounding from one piece of guidance, 2 hrs before a fairly dynamic disturbance propagates into the Mid Atlantic. I don't see a remote breakdown of guidance from you in any post for this storm. It's basic model regurgitation that can be done by a novice. When I started on this forum, I did a lot of sit back and listening. I chimed in when I had a question and when I had something of merit. It helped me learn. A lot of people could really benefit from that. I appreciate your love for meteorology, which is one of the reasons you are here, but man oh man, you gotta read the room or provide some context as to why you feel this storm will flop. It might not be juggernaut, but it's still going to produce something of reason, even with a marginal environment.

Why are you bringing up the beginning of the precip time frame? This is well ahead of the 7H frontogenesis band that WILL develop to the south and move north as the SLP along the coast move NE into your latitude. The lowest boundary layer, which has been hammered ad-nauseum, is the biggest deterrent for the higher end potential for the event. It would've taken a potent s/w (which was modeled by most guidance as early as 24 hrs ago) to overcome that type of setup. It's trended a bit weaker with the s/w and in turn has limited the potential of the event. Also, you live in basically DC. You know your climo. Marginal events don't work super well for you unless you get significant cooling aloft down into the lowest confines of the boundary layer. You don't have elevation on your side either, so you can't take advantage of orographic enhancement that happens all the time with these setups. You're going to get snow tomorrow, but posting the snow depth map (which I know you have some kind of fascination with despite it being ultra conservative 99% of the time), consistently bad mouthing a setup where it'll snow and likely a few moderate to heavy bands at that, and the fact 70% of this forum lives in a better climo than you should cause you to just sit back and take what's given unless you have some meteorological premise to back up all your posts. Persistent pessimism is not only frowned upon, it's extremely debilitating for others on this site trying to learn. You've been here long enough, you should know that. I'm 1900 miles away putting in time and effort to a forecast I'm gonna nothing from, but I want others to learn from what is being shown on guidance and how to forecast. Please, next time, if the setup starts looking bleak for you, move to Banter, or follow along with nothing to say and enjoy whatever snow falls. People want to learn, and this constant back and forth of the same diatribe and handwringing is absolutely a detriment to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals of meteorology and the process in forecasting.

I will absolutely be making an update to my map after glossing over things. It's apparent that the 5H depiction has lost its luster with the orientation is flatter and not as negative of a tilt. Without persistent, strong forcing, this will be more of a WWA event than anything else given the boundary layer temps. Someone can still sneak 6" out of the this, but the writing is on the wall for unlikely widespread WSW event. Having said that, it's not completely done by any means as we've seen crazier things happen with banding and these types of setups. Snow is snow, and it's better than nothing. I'll have a full update later this evening.

Noted! I'll try to pick a better basemap for the Final Call. I was hesitant on what to use, but now that I have some advice, I will use it. Gracias

I'll take an 8/10 everyday in a short time frame. Been doing better with the PPT map creation. Got the hang of things over course of trial and error. Gonna try to look for a better basemap. If you have any suggestions, feel free to give me a PM. Appreciate the critique!

Guys remember, I haven't looked at EVERYTHING and this was an on the fly forecast with a perusing through a few things. I may adjust numbers for a final call. For now, the thermal profile north and west of the fall line are pretty climo oriented, so just a matter of precip in liquid equivalent and potential banding during the best mid-level frontogen.

Still my first call and I'm at work, so I'll do a fine tooth comb and have a Final Call later today. Might make some adjustments. But in either case, this is a storm where banding will be key. You get a few good waves and 4" is easy money for my PA brethren

You really just gonna sub-context that to that person?

I want a @mappy grading of my map from a map creation standpoint, and a use of PowerPoint standpoint

Bryan? lol

Hey guys! Here's my first call map for the storm. Not everyone in here will be covered, but it shows the general idea!

Hey guys. First call map. I'll have a Disco later today with a Final Call tonight

It's fairly new. There's a few kinks to it however, one is the speed at which it updates while in use, but the GIS systems and overall physical appearance of data is pretty amazing.