MillvilleWx

First time I have looked into this thread and man, some of y'all have some great photo skills. Absolutely gorgeous pictures capturing the best of winter back home. Keep them coming please

In the plains, no. In the Mid Atlantic, extremely rare. It takes one heck of a setup to pull this off. This certainly is the definition of, “One heck of a setup”.

ULL to the rescue!

I apparently ran out of likes to give this afternoon, which sucks. But, I want to say I love so much of these reports and pictures. Living vicariously through the sub

3.4” according to sister in Carney, MD at my old home where I grew up as of 5 min ago. Still dumping there, but a few sleet pellets are sneaking through recently.

Clarksburg is a beautiful microclimate for snow in that area of MoCo. Enjoy!!

Yeah. They are over 3” and it’s coming down in sheets. I wouldn’t be surprised if areas north of Germantown hit 4-5” before the flip. A place like Damascus where @jnislives could hit 5” at this rate. Im just living vicariously! Have fun out there

Absolutely pounding snow in northern MoCo according to my in-laws. They think they are going to hit 4” easily before any flip. Good storm for everyone. Enjoy!

I just realized you are in VA. Man, I need more coffee lol East-west gradient definitely works in your favor. 2-4" I think is a lock with a crust of sleet/ZR in the mix before any flip to rain. A true barrage of all the elements.

I would walk in knee deep snow with nothing on but a bathing suit and tank top while dragging a cinder block just to have half of one of those muffins. My goodness

I think 4" is possible for the western half of Howard Co if everything breaks right. Fingers crossed!

Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont.

Ninja’d

It’s not. That’s pure snow. GFS algorithm is off there. Would say it’s an artifact of the site calculation. Wouldn’t worry too much about the GFS at this range. Stick to hi-res guidance and observations. It’s go time!!

One of the trends I like seeing on the RAP/HRRR combo is the downward adjustment of the surface temp for later this evening. It might not make it down to 32 for area east of Rt 15 beyond 03z, but it's trending colder west of their, and that spells a greater threat for ice. Also, the surface is extremely cold, especially the elevated areas where ice may occur while temp is between 32-34 degrees. Some slick spots will show up late, even for those in the rain. Keep an eye on that. Snow forecast looks pretty solid right now. I might bust a bit low on some of my ranges here if the trend holds. Ground truth to the south says this will be a better event than what we were anticipating 24 hrs ago. Love reverse, positive trends

Hey Trix! Suggestions for spots in the Keys; My wife and I love the Marathon area, preferably up near Duck Key on the north end of town. On the opposite side of the 7 Mile, Big Pine is always a nice spot, but Cudjoe Key is very pretty a little further down. Boca Chica near KEY is home to lots of people that work near the Naval Base there, but it can get super pricey due to proxy of Key West. Summerland Key is low key beautiful, but houses are smaller. I would go for a place like Marathon myself since the infrastructure is more built up. I will say the internet in the Keys is very hit or miss. AT&T has a monopoly down there basically, and they suck from what I heard. Didn't know if that would make a huge influence or not. Either way, that's one of my wife and I's potential landing spots for the NWS. Key West office is in my top 5 for now. Good private schools down near Key West, which is helpful if we have kids. Enjoy the time down there btw! Have a Hurricane for me on Duval

The NAM is that one friend who you know is gonna show up to the party, but when they do, they are drunk already

I like 4-8" for your area. Should come down pretty hard on the front end thump. Enjoy!

Pretty much none, but I think a longer period of ZR is possible for areas NW of the Piedmont. Rates may prevent high accretion, but temps staying at or below freezing could definitely occur

3km NAM actually jives with my forecast now. All the main players are well within reason. Love to see it. 12km NAM will come around on Tuesday

Good morning y'all If anyone wants to hear my forecast for their respective area, feel free to tag me and ask me and I'll come up with a forecast for snow/ice.

Final Call Slight adjustment to the snow and ice totals. Moved a delineation point a bit to the east to add more of Carroll/MoCo/Loudoun to the light blue shading representation. Let the chips fall today as they may. Enjoy everyone

The last time we had a pressure perturbation like that, it was after I had the three enchilada combo at Abuelo’s .

Hey guys! Just a heads up with the European output. It is a model that struggles a lot of time with the finer transition periods and is likely missing some ZR in the mix. There will likely still be some freezing rain to contend with, despite what the model signifies. This is where mesos come in handy. Some areas may see little ice, but other areas that typically hold the cold better will, so keep that in the back of your thoughts for the storm.

No problem! There's a method to the madness. One of the biggest things I utilize is the CIPS analogs with recognition of key features and then compare to previous events. I also have a pretty good memory for weather, so I remember setups with a similar evolution in certain areas of the forecast and weight that towards guidance. Blending guidance can be good for a complex situation, but sometimes intuition with the meteorology at hand can take precedence, especially for something historical or heavy climo based (Elevation dependent storms are big with this). Knowing your geography and how things typically unfold is important. Nailing forecasts exactly is extremely difficult, but the key is to stay within a bounds that can verify an Advisory or Warning when you put one out. As an NWS met, I think about being within reason and adjustments up are okay compared to adjustments down. Impact based forecasting. I want to be as close to right as possible, but not missing too much. In this case, it's hard to create a forecast when the transition time frame is uber important. That can make or break a forecast.