MillvilleWx

The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now.

Do you accept DOGE Coin?

You'll be watching TV by candle light

Agreed. He's made awesome strides. Keep it up @Cobalt!!

Be careful with those maps! That is not accretion being shown but QPF of liquid falling into temps below 32 degrees! There's a lot of physical properties that occur for freezing rain to occur.

I would think by the end of the weekend, the envelope of possibilities SHOULD close by that point, which will aid in the forecast possibilities reflected in the lower levels.

I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi.

The Euro on this run consolidates the PV with a rotation back west into Manitoba. That'll allow for a higher amplitude ridge to develop east of the Mississippi and lock the cold air to the north and west. It's the most aggressive model run showing that depiction at range, but is something that is obviously still on the table.

We shall see! Certainly looks like a decent snowfall is in the cards for you and @CAPE. I'm hoping y'all can cash

The Euro is still the most SE of all the guidance right now, but partly due to a slightly weaker 5H vort as it exits the southern plains. It was close to the NAM 12km strength and orientation, but still a touch flatter. The best 7H ascent is focused along and SE of I-95. Could very well be right, but the trends are for a bit more emphasis to the NW within a strengthening mid-level frontogenic piece that moves NNW as the low tracks to the NNE, instead of NE like the Euro. That would push the higher QPF back further west. I still like a blend of GFS/Euro surface with mesoscale premise of the NAM Nest and HREF blends. They seem to be rock steady in the development of the precip back further west due to large scale ascent from a strengthening 25H jet streak to the NE. All Hi-res guidance has a prolific 3-6 hr period of snowfall across the western half of the eastern shore over to about US15. There could be a secondary western band that develops due to orographic enhancement and passage of the 5H trough as it pivots ENE out of WV. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible during the storm height with 8-10:1 ratios fairly common in a wide swath of the sub-forum. There will be slightly higher ratios within the heart of any bands developing on the northern fringe of the mid-level frontogenic band as it moves north. Also, areas out west into the Blue Ridge and Alleghany front will see higher ratios due to colder mid and upper level temps due to passage of the s/w trough mentioned earlier. I'm sticking with wide spread 3-6" with a max of 10" the likely scenario given the marginal lower boundary layer temp profile, as well as the quick storm motion that will limit training banding potential that is common with captured disturbances.

Oh.....

Yup. I think it's to prevent spamming from bots. All good!

Eh. Who needs power anyway?

I'm out of likes apparently, so take my vocal "like"

I like your spot for this one! Could be nuking snowballs for multiple hours before it pulls out. Might need to set and alarm and brew the coffee beforehand, but might be worth it!

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range.

It has that "Look" for a pattern that would support the potential. That, and snow squalls as the PV pivots to the east over Ontario and we get a strong PVA signature with the push of the arctic boundary. Both are on the table with this one. GFS and ICON show basically a pure ice hell scenario.

The GFS is the 7th circle of hell if you like light ZR with temps in the mid-20's

GFS has a really nice negatively tilted trough axis on 06 & 12z Sunday. Good placement too for everyone. Definitely a very nice run

Might be some orographic enhancement that coincides with the mid-level frontogen as it propagates to the north and west. There's typically a westward band that develops with southern stream disturbances as the s/w trough pivots underneath and creates a small area of enhanced upper forcing to the north. I can see that happening with this as well. There will be a lucky winner on the western fringes of this system I feel. Where is anyone's guess. I'd say your hood out to Tucker and Pocahontas Co, WV up into Alleghany Co MD will have the best chance due to topography and their positioning to the north of the s/w trough.

If you LOVE it, then I MUST go try it since you seem to have great food taste and cooking skills

You should see some high ratio fluff on Sunday morning. Will be a beautiful morning out there.

12z HRW WRF-NSSL looks mighty tasty for the region. I like this model for non-complicated setups. It does a great job, and is part of the HREF (Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast) grouping.

But have we measured the angle of the cold?