MillvilleWx

Yeah, I just mentioned that to Mappy. It's doing decent job south of I-70. Not sure what was happening north of there. Oh well. Radar or not, it's snowing up in your hood. Enjoy! And next time you're at the Casino, $20 on black for me. I'll Venmo

I actually noticed that as soon as I typed that response. Weird that is was off up there. It's doing a great job south of I-70 at least. It's shaking off the rust . Enjoy the snow!

That is honestly my favorite radar to follow during an event. It's extremely good at pinpointing the changeover line(s).

Still worthless in this setup! That's it. That's the update

Some great photos down by Roanoke via Spann Twitter. Looking forward to seeing similar obs later from y’all .

HREF mean snowfall for the region is between 2-4" for a majority of NoVa west of I-95 all the way to the north in Central MD. Probability threshold for >4" accumulation is fairly low for a majority of the area, but there is a focal centered north of I-70 from Northern Frederick to the east across Carroll and Baltimore counties. The 1hr snow mean is actually pretty impressive for a 4 hr span beginning at 20z through 0z for the central MD crew showing a general 0.5/hr accumulation. but pockets of up to 0.75"/hr. Remember that what is shown is a mean, and not necessarily a slam dunk. 1-1.5"hr for an hour or two is very much in the cards, so localized amounts exceeding 4" north of I-70 is possibility. We know the usual suspects A sharp gradient in snowfall totals is depicted as well toward the bay. Areas east of I-95 may struggle to reach 1 inch. A few in here have been pessimistic about their chances of receiving over an inch. It has merit, but that is just climo. Nothing much you can do. Final forecast is 1-3 " for inside the beltway(s), Alexandria, Arlington, and southwest of DC. 2-4" for areas north of the Potomac in MD, WV Panhandle, and northern neck of VA. 2-5" for areas north of I-70 stretching from Hagerstown to northern Harford County near Jarretsville. Best chance for the higher end is Parrs Ridge, MD line crew on a triangle of Emmitsburg/Mt Airy/Jarretsville.

Laytonsville is in a good spot for this storm. 2-4" is a pretty solid bet for the area. Gburg and northern MoCo will be 2-4" in general. Potential max of 3-5" up near Damascus/Mount Airy line along 27

That reminds me, how did your Fabio costume turn out this past Halloween?

The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously

They have plenty of time to make adjustments. They are doing a decent job so far imo. 00z runs on guidance will be the biggest time frame for areas to the NE. SW portion of the CWA is a slam dunk WWA.

Agreed. You can kind of pick something out on the NAM that shows that signal. Looks like prime time is during the morning across VA and between Noon-5PM for areas to the northeast. Orientation of the precip field, as well as the orientation of the thicknesses over Central MD indicate an inverted trough type feature. Fairly progressive disturbance, so the window is still 4-7 hrs.

I would think that was first step for that area specifically because it falls inside 24 hrs for the start for those counties. Further to the northeast, they could in theory hold off a little longer, although they probably will pull the trigger on something. That's just my theory given recent history of Sterling and posting Winter Wx products.

The updated package will be out in 1-2 hrs. That's still from the morning package prior to newer guidance.

One of the things I like about these runs is the increasing low level flow out of the southeast leading into the system. This has helped really moisten the lower column, allowing minimal time for the boundary layer to have to moisten up with the onset of precip. We should see precip fall very quickly once the returns are overhead. Also, the H7 VV's on models are pretty significant across the area during the peak of the storm. There will be solid 6 hr period of solid lift across the Shenandoah and areas to the NE before we see precip tapering off. When the flow shifts to the NW, that'll be the time frame when you know the snow will be coming to an end in a few hours as dry air filters in behind the departing low. General 1-3" for areas impacted, but higher elevations in the BR and the valley's of VA could easily see 3-5". A nice little event incoming

The difference between the NAM and globals is all contingent on the timing of the low transfer to the coast. With an earlier transfer off NC coast, the southeast low level flow is much stronger over the eastern areas and the H7 VV's are much more favorable for banding potential on the NW side of the low. For both the GFS/Euro, the best lift concentrated to the west with the parent low and H5 vort pass providing better difluence across WV and western VA. Extension further back to DC area due to the surface low is going to be harder to come by unless we get that surface low tucked in closer to the coast. So rooting for baroclinic setup to be a little closer to shore would be best case, along with the NAM earlier transfer. The mid-level dry air advection at Hr 60, onward will also dissolve the western extent of the precip field as the trough pivots through the region. It's a tight window and the best chances for snow right now would be out toward central and southern WV, SW VA, and the Delmarva due to the better precip enhancement from the secondary low center moving to the northeast. Hopefully the NAM is on to something with the earlier transfer. Edit: I should add that the rooting for the earlier transfer is more for the city gang and further east. Those west of the fall line out to I-81 will probably want what the Euro is showing with the solid vort pass and difluent area as the trough pivots eastward. This is a setup that is tricky to get everyone involved. Someone will likely be left out.

Have you tried the nearest Golden Corral?

Oh.......Oh lord. What have I done?

Want me to send you some new ornaments for your Christmas in July?

That's a game changer

Hey y'all. I posted a long thread on twitter talking about my Top 10 weather events, I've witnessed, over the course of the decade. If you want, take a read, and perhaps a follow . I post a lot of sports, humor, gaming, and weather and am pretty active. Hope to follow some of y'all!

Yup. Bill and Brady gone, it's back to square one. Bill is the cog that turns the wheel in that organization. He is the HC and GM. He makes almost all the decisions and he loves it. He's likely the best to ever do it, and he learned from the master (Walsh). Once he's gone, the hill they will have to climb will be long and tough. Unless he stays in a GM role, which he could, they will be back to being fairly irrelevant like they were for many years.

Yesterday was pretty much a perfect day in the NFL. Ravens won without even playing some of their top guys, broke records along the way. Pats lost to Dolphins. Eagles/Cowboys drama was settled. Bengals beat the Stains. Pats lost. I won some money in DraftKings. The Dolphins somehow beat the Pats. The Seattle/SF game was a hell of a way to end the regular season. And the most important thing is the Patriots lost AT HOME to the Dolphins. I was literally laughing hysterically at the Twitter feed from the Pats handle when they posted the final score. It was both sweet and salty from all the tears of Pats fans. It's going to be great when Brady and Bill retire, and they fade into obscurity.

This always seems to fit this time of year. Hopefully Santa can work some magic .

Merry Christmas to the best bunch of weather weenies this side of the Mississippi! It's always a pleasure to come back to this forum and talk weather and make friends. We all share a love for weather and that's one of the best gifts ever. May your days be Merry and bright!

Smart parent