MillvilleWx

Alright guys, took a look at a few things this morning with regards to the November system. I will not be entertaining the December 5th storm for awhile yet, although that is a very favorable time frame considering history around these parts. No rhyme or reason to it, but Dec 5th is just a great period for winter last 20 years. Anyways, a couple things I noticed off the bat that show the distinct differences in outcomes for the region, and a lot can be deduced from 5H on both the Euro and GFS. Taking a look at some highlighted areas, there are two areas to watch. The first is the obvious s/w digging through the Great Lakes and interacting with a s/w piece that ejects from the Tenn Valley. Notice here the interaction already taking place as the s/w over WI digs quickly and starts to catch up to the southern stream vort. There's a bit of enhancement of the southern wave with greater difluent pattern over western VA into DC/MD. This is why the GFS has entertained the greater potential for snow because the dynamics are favorable as the mean s/w pattern presents some PVA traversing the area, allowing for ascent to be maximized at this time frame over the Mid Atlantic hood. The second area of note is the ridge axis out west and the accompanying stream of s/w's entering British Columbia. This is important as the ridge axis is favorable in both amplitude and orientation. This is why the later frames show a capture at 5H and generate a closed low over the Delmarva before scooting off the NJ coast. As long as this remains favorable, the area can score some flakes. If the ridge pumps further, the s/w over WI would likely gain more favorable amplitude and the threat for more snow is possible. But, there's also the other way, which is kind of what the Euro wants to imply. Now lets look at the 00z Euro run for the same time frame. Notice the orientation of the ridge out west AND the amplitude being less prolific? Well, you can thank a more powerful s/w disturbance causing a flattening of the ridge over BC which would have downstream implications for the Mid Atlantic. The two eastern s/w's are present, but the flow is not meridional, it's more zonal as you head Tenn Valley on east. This causes the energy over WI/MI to not dig as far south as necessary to really cash in on the better dynamics, leading to weaker ascent over the area with less southern coverage of precip. Now, there is some snow for part of the area, but it's confined to I-70 on north as the energy does provide some PVA for a time and we cash on what ascent is necessary. The key is having the ridge out west better aligned over ID and the s/w's entering BC to be held back or less amplified. This is certainly possible, but something to monitor. The last piece circled over the Canadian Maritimes is the previous low that bombs over Nova Scotia and would favor a better chance for the pattern to be less progressive and keep the energy driving out of Canada at play. So far, both models are similar in that regard, but you would absolutely want that in the picture. If that goes, might be a tough trickier to get a favorable amplitude on the digging mean trough east of the Mississippi. That's all I got. I'll be chiming in, when I can the next succession of days.

I love you guys Settling into work. Pretty mundane out here today. Will look at stuff this morning and give you guys a scoop.

It could snow soon More details tomorrow as I am currently out celebrating a coworker birthday But….it’s got a formidable shot imo .

Doing well over here. Just getting ready for the holidays and winter over in TX. Pretty excited this year .

That period from November 29th thru December 10th will see a cornucopia of s/w's that will be interesting to follow. Also, if anyone wants my take on winter for the Mid Atlantic this year, there are two periods I like for bigger events this winter; the first 3 weeks of December and most of the month of February into March. I do see a January thaw, once again considering the evolution of ENSO and the analogs based on the current unfolding of everything. I really like @40/70 Benchmark writeup and forecast and is very in-line with the progs from other LR forecasts from mets across the east. The core of the cold still needs to manifest itself after a late start, but it's certainly building over the Yukon, AK, and Siberia, so patience will be a virtue. Hopefully there are multiple storms everyone can cash, but I will warn, this could be a dud winter as well with the Nina, so expectations should be tempered. My forecast is slightly above normal temp wise with below normal snow, but potential for snow to bust high is legit 50/50 considering how things can break second half of winter. I'd say 80-90% confidence in AN temps and lean 60% below normal snowfall, but around 50-75% of normal with higher risk of ice west of the BR for later in season.

I guess it's that time of year I come out of hibernation. Who's ready for winter?!?!

Those microclimates in Germantown and surrounding areas are pretty insane. I saw that first hand for the 3 years I worked/lived in the area before moving out here.

Literally 6-12 hrs sooner on the 500mb closing off or 150 miles further west on the SLP track and we'd have been singing zippity dooda with that one. It was near miss that haunts us, but it was stupid close

I'm totally game for this. This would be a fun to test our prior to winter so we can meet and greet. Then during storms, we can have a good meteorological discussion on what's impending. This would be a great way for people to engage in a way that also emphasizes tone, which can be lost in internet discourse.

That's gonna be me on Wednesday. 84 here today with no clouds. Wednesday will be drizzle, mist and 57 max. Kind of looking forward to it. Tired of the warm weather lol

Ji would still be disappointed

I just decided to take a look at the cesspool myself and...........we need the meteor, like yesterday. Good lord

We could use some snow

BWI: 14.3 DCA: 8.6 IAD: 19.2 RIC: 8.1 SBY: 6.8

Just creepin. Did I miss anything the past month or so? I already know winter was canceled in July, so I'm caught up there

Idk what's worse; having a quick turnaround this morning after working a swing shift, or watching the Ravens defensive and offensive fronts look like complete and utter garbage for the umpteenth time in the past several years. I'm starting to realize that our scouting team are complete dog water when assessing OL talent outside the 1st round.

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Bringing this over to this thread as well from the Banter thread.

A nice upgrade coming to the CMC for the upcoming fall and winter. Implementation expected early next week (9/14). Here's a bit of a summary of the findings based on reanalysis of the parallel vs the current ops.

Ida is on its way guys. Buckle up tonight. This is the time frame of interest now.

It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope.

Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs.

Just can't seem to get over that hurdle yet. Tonight should be interesting to say the least. Quite a picturesque cane for what it is so far.

It's been trying a while. I think the prime time for the hurricane models has been after 7 PM CDT tonight into tomorrow. Still got time to really get cranking, but it's teetering on the edge of taking off. Once it can clear out, there will be no stopping this buzz saw.

My EM friends said there really was no way to enact a contraflow because it take A LOT of resources and at minimum 2 days to prep for contraflow. Plus, other states are involved in the planning, so this isn't an easy task. Otherwise, I would've been telling people to get out yesterday. They tip toed too much around it. Faster moving system. Need to make a decision ASAP. Also, resources stretched thin due to the Pandemic. It's a logistical nightmare.