MillvilleWx

I was seeing that too. Something tells me one or two are going to break right in the upcoming pattern. Definitely love the cold air filtering on this side of the pole in the extended. I might miss my snow chance being home, but would love for y'all to score one way or another. At this rate, ice storm potential keeps going up in these parts the longer this pattern holds. Lots of PAC energy to work with. All about timing for here too. Let's Roll

Despite the Euro Deterministic eroding the cold air quickly at the day 9-10 time frame with the southern system coming out, there ECM does a good job signaling how persistent and deep the CAD wedge is. This is important because the current setup is a strong isentropic upglide signature with southerly flow aloft with north/northeast flow positioned at the surface due to the surface ridge over the northeast. At range, globals will will struggle with handling any kind of pronounced CAD, but means on the ensembles will give a better depiction. Below is a gif from the ECM showing 2m T anomalies (deg C). Notice how strong the wedge sig on this one. With H85 winds directed out of the south, there would be a moderation above the deck, so it's a classic look of snow to mix to zr to potential rain pending latitude. We know how our climo works. I agree with WxUSAF, that signature would not scour the cold that fast. That's got winter wx written all over it. Only 8-9 days away!

I have some skin in the game for the Dec 13-16th time frame. I'll be home to see family then. Let's bring one home y'all

I just read this and I am busting a gut for some reason Btw, Happy Belated CAPE!

I wasn’t saying it was... I was saying the look verbatim is how you get ice storms down here. It was a crazy run. And as a meteorologist, you never throw away an ensemble run and run with one model. That’s dangerous. Closer in, then we can start giving weight. .

January 1998. The Great North American Ice Storm. North Country of NY State up into Quebec were demoralized from 2-6" of freezing rain accretion. Trees in northern NY state are still bent over in spots to this day and will forever be that way from the weight of the ice. At the height of the storm, freezing rain fell into air as cold as 14 degrees.

So, looking at the GEFS, I pray that the signal it is showing doesn't actually come true. Good lord. It's got the look though for a legit ice storm out this way. PV rotating down north of the Lakes with strong surface ridge nosing down the lee of the Apps with the height rises. Add a piece off the Pac to cut underneath. That's an ice storm lovers dream. Dang man The more I look at it, the more impressed I am. Heck, @Eskimo Joe would approve of this run. Wow. And that look at H5 is CLASSIC for a southern plains Ice storm.

I can actually see my lights go out on that run. I can also hear the tree in Midland snapping. #BigYikes .

You can have all the flakes you want if you switched your shampoo or moved to Hagerstown. .

I like where the Ravens sit, but the Chiefs and Pats still creep me out come playoff time. We haven’t beaten the Chiefs yet and I’ll never discount Belicheck .

I also see this and one of the reasons I bumped my snow for BWI higher than anyone else. Just looking at recency bias would lend credence to a more active coastal track with baroclinic proxy somewhat closer to the coast. Have had a lot of lows actually positioned very well so far in fall with QPF fields in good placement. Still missing the all important cold air to sustain any winter precip, but it was still out of climo. Roll that same kind of H5 height pattern into latter December through early March, and you have to like chances to get a good storm or two. We shall see. Unlikely I'll see any snow this year unless I chase it. Looks like ice would be our biggest threat down here, but you never know. A good snow here is actually not a good precursor for back home, so I'll take my ice or cold rain lol

Looks like weather might play a huge role in the game for Sunday. Ravens been practicing with wet footballs all week in prep. Last time SF played in the rain, it was against WSH earlier this year. A low scoring affair with SF coming out on top. That defense is pretty solid. If the Ravens can keep up what they've been doing, they should be fine. It'll be a good one.

I can agree with this. It certainly seems like that's the narrative lately. Hopefully for y'all sake it continues. I'm not super bullish on this winter by any means, but I do see a fair amount of chances incoming for the season. Actually bumped my snow fall forecast a bit as a result in the contest. And my wife and I are doing okay out in Texas. We do miss home. Hope to get back to or at least closer to the ole stomping grounds in time. Really taking advantage and learning the intricacies of forecasting in the NWS. It's pretty awesome. I love what I do, but I need my snow

Nice look Showme. Pretty consistent pattern evolving next few weeks with higher heights building over the western US heading into December. A prime split-flow pattern with ample disturbances traversing the sub-tropical jet. Still a bit hesitant from what I'm seeing on the ensembles in the extended, but I wouldn't worry too much about that now. In fact, both ECM/GEFS begin to take on a better look after mid-month. Source region for cold will be solid, so even a shutout will have some benefit for later in the extended (i.e beyond mid-December). I'd take that look anytime.

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Quite the slate of football this weekend locally, NFL wise. Ravens at home vs Texans, Philly vs New England in Philly, Redskins game with Haskins starting his first contest. Even the Cowboys fans in the sub have an interesting road test vs Lions. Should be a fun one.

Hey y'all. Wanted to pass along something that was created by someone in NWS for GR2 placefiles and color curves. There's a site called Placefile Nation which includes templates and color curves that can be utilized by anyone who is interested and invests in GR2. The site will be updated in time and I'm sure they would appreciate any feedback for additions and other ideas. Link is below. This is a really nicely organized site. Highly recommend! https://placefilenation.com/index.php

If they lose tomorrow, I will be screaming a whole lot of profanities in our Upper Air building while prepping the balloon

I second this

Didn't obviously want to post this in the long range thread pertaining to here, but some crazy numbers I was able to pull up via deterministic and ensembles from models for our area. Our average hi/lo for Tuesday next week is 68/40. This is the time frame post front (Monday afternoon/evening FROPA). Current 850 temp progs on guidance are anywhere from 18 to 28C BELOW NORMAL for the time of year. MOS guidance on both the Euro and GFS are running around 24 for a low Tuesday morning with a high barely breaking 40 degrees, which is astonishing at long leads. This sets a total departure potential of -15 to 20F for the low and -25 to 30F for the high. This time of year is uncommon to see these kinds of temperatures impact the area, and especially these numbers at leads. Given the antecedent conditions over western Canada and the Hysplit motioning the air parcels over already ice/snow covered ground, the potential for record breaking cold is increasing with each passing day. Considering model changes for the H85 temps have actually chilled on today's runs, it's very likely this will be one of the colder early season spells in sometime east of the Rockies.

If this look keeps up, I might be posting earlier than normal this year. Fingers, toes, and a** cheeks crossed. .

Thank god the Ravens went away from what they were doing early in the game. Can’t be having too much success against the Pats. Why would we ever do that? Smh Cyrus Jones better be selling snow cones after this game. .

BWI: 26.5" DCA: 17.8" IAD: 27.2" RIC: 11.8" Tiebreaker (SBY): 13.1" *Guesses subject to change based on future outlooks, model delusions, and a night with a bottle of Crown Vanilla

Thanks! I look forward to getting back into the swing. Our spring was crazy and summer was hot and dry. Ready for some winter action. In the meantime, I'll enjoy my west Texas fall

Is everyone here enjoying the chill? I had mine yesterday. 16 degree low, shattering all time October record low. Twas bliss .