MillvilleWx

Noticed that after you said something. That was really close to a bigger hit. Literally a 3 hr sooner closed 85H and Woof

I hope @stormtracker is alone and not in public right now

There will be so many fatties ripping for a 3-6 hour period, you'd think you were at a Grateful Dead concert

Man, I was on the phone talking to my friend and watching the run come in. I get off the phone to come here and say it was another nuking and I saw people about to ledge jump at hr 27. The lift was still there and everything. Some of y'all worry too much lol

Thanks Bob. These are the kind of storms I know you like too. Hot and heavy, no wait, puking fatties, and perfect for that extra long dog walk

Awesome post man. Agreed. I always use caution with a CAM dominant model during synoptic due to those issues you described above. I mentioned earlier that the uniformity we see from globals and even the 12km Parent are likely not going to occur with a setup like this where intense frontogenic forcing at 7H and 85H will be the drivers of banding potential and who gets maxed. I was thinking Easton area over to Kent Island up to CAPE and south of frd might be the jack, and still could, but the I-95 and NW crew up near the line could see the most of the frontogen placement and strength depicted materializes because they will also have the orographic factor to increase the local lift within the lowest confines of the boundary layer. I just got the vaccine, so I’m sitting in a parking lot to make sure I don’t have a reaction or something. Them I’m gonna go home and look more at soundings. Hopefully you guys can get whacked with this one [emoji41] .

This isn't even in the same stratosphere as the last system. Evolution and moisture transport are totally different. Upper levels are different. This will come down to rates and evap cooling of the lowest 3000' in the boundary layer. Baltimore still looks good, but areas west of I-83 need to watch for anymore NW trend.

The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now.

Do you accept DOGE Coin?

You'll be watching TV by candle light

Agreed. He's made awesome strides. Keep it up @Cobalt!!

Be careful with those maps! That is not accretion being shown but QPF of liquid falling into temps below 32 degrees! There's a lot of physical properties that occur for freezing rain to occur.

I would think by the end of the weekend, the envelope of possibilities SHOULD close by that point, which will aid in the forecast possibilities reflected in the lower levels.

I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi.

The Euro on this run consolidates the PV with a rotation back west into Manitoba. That'll allow for a higher amplitude ridge to develop east of the Mississippi and lock the cold air to the north and west. It's the most aggressive model run showing that depiction at range, but is something that is obviously still on the table.

We shall see! Certainly looks like a decent snowfall is in the cards for you and @CAPE. I'm hoping y'all can cash

The Euro is still the most SE of all the guidance right now, but partly due to a slightly weaker 5H vort as it exits the southern plains. It was close to the NAM 12km strength and orientation, but still a touch flatter. The best 7H ascent is focused along and SE of I-95. Could very well be right, but the trends are for a bit more emphasis to the NW within a strengthening mid-level frontogenic piece that moves NNW as the low tracks to the NNE, instead of NE like the Euro. That would push the higher QPF back further west. I still like a blend of GFS/Euro surface with mesoscale premise of the NAM Nest and HREF blends. They seem to be rock steady in the development of the precip back further west due to large scale ascent from a strengthening 25H jet streak to the NE. All Hi-res guidance has a prolific 3-6 hr period of snowfall across the western half of the eastern shore over to about US15. There could be a secondary western band that develops due to orographic enhancement and passage of the 5H trough as it pivots ENE out of WV. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible during the storm height with 8-10:1 ratios fairly common in a wide swath of the sub-forum. There will be slightly higher ratios within the heart of any bands developing on the northern fringe of the mid-level frontogenic band as it moves north. Also, areas out west into the Blue Ridge and Alleghany front will see higher ratios due to colder mid and upper level temps due to passage of the s/w trough mentioned earlier. I'm sticking with wide spread 3-6" with a max of 10" the likely scenario given the marginal lower boundary layer temp profile, as well as the quick storm motion that will limit training banding potential that is common with captured disturbances.

Oh.....

Yup. I think it's to prevent spamming from bots. All good!

Eh. Who needs power anyway?

I'm out of likes apparently, so take my vocal "like"

I like your spot for this one! Could be nuking snowballs for multiple hours before it pulls out. Might need to set and alarm and brew the coffee beforehand, but might be worth it!

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range.