MillvilleWx

I'm actually not sure how they implement it. I know we don't use Kuchera out here unless we are under an ULL since our ratios are typically 7-8:1 in the valleys and Permian Basin and 10:1 in the mountains above 4k ft. I'm not a big fan of Kuchera in most setups because I believe it smooths and takes an average despite clear as day highs and lows pending mesoscale banding. I usually use QPF and then adjust based on expectations and local climo. We have a tool at our office that also generates snowfall based on certain thermo criteria and we can adjust for time frames to get a total. Great to utilize on GFE for gridded forecasts.

Man, you might need a cigarette if that verified. It's going to be a gorgeous morning down that way on Sunday. I've been honking the mid-level fronto for a few days. It's been hefty on guidance.

I wouldn't take the precip maps (QPF) to verbatim because there will be some pretty good bands and pockets of where others will see a lot more precip and others will suffer. Nature of the beast in the meso sense. Still a good moisture advection signal, but the uniformity of 1+" QPF is very unlikely in this setup. 0.6-0.8 uniformity back to perhaps US15 is possible with 1+" jacks in between a certainty with whoever can get sustained banding. Also, take into consideration some orographic enhancement over Parrs Ridge and the Blue Ridge out west. Should be some decent snow totals out of this. 3-6" with local to 10" is still my call for the area I just outlined. If NAM amplification is to be taken verbatim, might have to push my heaviest westward extent to I-81. Jury still out, but some snow will fall back that way, imo no matter what.

Man, @Disc and @Buddy1987 will love this run. Should be a nice quick nuking down in their hoods

This is going to be a run where people west of the Fall line will appreciate. Looks like a nice hit incoming for I-95 east to Cambridge. S/w is beginning to take a negative tilt beyond that point I mentioned yesterday (Longitudinally from Nashville/Indy on east).

Agreed. I know my back prefers that as well. I remember I visited my friends doing the OWLeS project in upstate NY in the winter of 2013-14. They were housed off the finger lakes (Lake Seneca) in Penn Yan, NY. It snowed everyday while I was up there and it was the fluffiest damn snow I've ever seen. They used to just take a big broom and clear the walk ways. I was like, "Man, now that's what I'm talking about!!"

Just through the night runs, I like your spot and with a bit more amplification of the s/w trough, the jack could extend up to your area. I still like a bit south of you right now as a place like Dover to Smyrna looks like they will be a great location for this one.

That's, "Clear your driveway like blowing out candles on a cake" type of snow

This the main reason I see the jackpot region being to the west of SBY as I think some warm air intrusion within the lower boundary layer will change precip over to sleet or even rain pending rates. Highest prob for rain will be the immediate coast and points 10 miles inland.

I heard on the radio this morning that it's Shower with your Friend Day. I know what you'll be doing later today

I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you!

I see exactly what you mean. It's even more pronounced at hour 9. Storm cancel?

A LITERAL line of storms in Alabama/Mississippi right now. I'm actually stunned

I almost feel like the ICON is not bad inside 48 hrs looking back on the recent storms, but outside 48 it struggles mightily and can be prone to doing weird things with the surface.

I'll tell you...Easton, MD is looking like a prime spot for this one right now. That and Kent and Arrows area in Queen Anne's. I really hope @CAPE gets crushed someway, somehow.

This is NSFW right here

Trough takes on a negative tilt about 3 hrs before the NAM parent. The Nest basically looked like a beefed up GFS at 5H. I'd be damn happy with that run for anyone in here.

Same man. Same! Give me the snow and I'll go enjoy every damn flake that falls.

The 7H frontogen is just stupid and it's likely to be the case with a storm like this. I said it before in my winded post earlier, but 1-2"/hr rates are 100% possible if this vort remains as prolific as it shows.

Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding.

Agreed. The trend to the SE was really a small blip but there was positive takeaways that leave this for room to be a bigger boom compared to even the earlier runs. I'm curious to see how the 3km run finishes out.

That would be a beautiful Sunday morning for the District. Grab a cup of coffee or favorite morning beverage, a bagel sandwich, and walk around the mall during the height. Gonna be the picturesque kind of snow too that clings to everything

I'll say this @CAPE ain't gonna be complaining at all about this run. Woof

It's funny you say that because I was literally just looking at the 25H panels and the jet placement is actually little better than previous runs. The strength is a touch lower than 18z, but further back, so wouldn't be surprised if this still gets the job done for areas east of US15.