MillvilleWx

I've been more interested in this event than the one that was being talked about for tomorrow. That's why I didn't delve into details much. I've been busy at work preparing for my Radar Certification coming up, so I've been pre-occupied. I'll try to get more involved with this upcoming event. I like its prospects.

Jeb. You and I need to take a trip to the Sierra's one day. Head up to Mammoth and tote the greatest Jebwalk there ever was. Blinding snow, 4"/hr rates, wind. We can have it all! Texas won't do it for us, so we need to head to it

It's actually ZR signal past the initial snow. Temps in the 20's to near 30 when the rain hits I hate the precip algorithm on TT for the Icon. I also just hate the Icon

He's using the 8 bit maps on NOAA to analyze the meso-low in Botswana that will ultimately lead to a -PNA induced NAO

He doesn't drink anymore, but if you make a mean seafood dish, steamed crabs, or a delicious steak, he'd rush right over

Completely agreed. My dad is still there though, so Bethany should be good anyway. He'd see snow in Miami if he moved there. It's uncanny

Weekend too. DFH annual road trip back on? Stop by the Cottage Cafe in Bethany for incredible burgers and fries, or Homemade pot roast. Mmmmmm In all seriousness, this usually is the time where models start creeping north, but that confluence will not just scoot out a ton, but a 50 mile adjustment isn't out of the question.

Imagine that. Southern DE trying to find its way into the heavier stripe lol

March '58 or bust! This pattern blows man. I'm gonna be in the 80's today and in the freezer by next week with no snow to show for it I have seen 16 total flakes this winter

Still all snow just south of you too according to my sister near Cub Hill. She lives at my old house where I grew up with her kids. That place was a crazy little micro-climate.

Being serious, Idk how people can do that noodling thing. It's insane how dangerous it is to do that. Apparently it's a big thing in Oklahoma. My co-worker is from there and she actually mentioned her friend at OU grew up in south-central Oklahoma and people would fish and noodle during the summer. I told her that's a special breed of people down in those parts lol

Definitely a rookie at a Rush concert. My old neighbors told stories about heading to Rush concerts stoned taking the bus. They almost got kicked off one day because they got into an argument on the bus and my neighbors friend took off his shoe and threw it at the guy and almost hit the bus driver up front lol

Nah. Some local dude holding a craft brew is outside picketing and yelling at all the administrators as they walk by. Might just be a delay

You might get your wish of icing on top of your caked snow

One of the funniest things I ever read on Bill Murray was a story about some dude who was eating at a Wendy's in Boston area. Well, Bill Murray had been in the area that day and according to the dude telling the story, he said he was casually eating his lunch towards the entrance at a table when a man walked by and jacked a few of his fries off the tray before heading into line. Guy said he was like, "Hey!", and Bill Murray turned and looked at him. The guy was stunned, and all Bill Murray said was, "No one is going to believe you." I lost it because that is hands down one of the most Bill Murray things you could imagine. Gotta love him.

Yeah. That part is pretty abnormal. Like I said, we have really haven't seen much like this in the past for down here. It's an anomaly that will need to be further investigated to put all the pieces together. I think guidance will adjust with the SOI and MJO progression and dampen the SE ridge over the next week, but some remnant version will stick in place is my feeling. We're kind of in a tough spot here because spring is approaching and we've missed on multiple good rain chances to our north. That's going to put us in a rare spot where a slight positive ENSO might exhibit an average to above average Fire Wx season. Trough along the PAC coast doesn't want to help us at all outside of some wind.

I drive that area sometimes to get to my parents using the back way and avoiding Rt 50. It's crazy how many deer roam that area.

We were talking about it at the other day at work. We think the MJO/SOI is just ruling the roost for the entire longwave pattern. It's unusual to have something dominate like it has, but that's really the only thing we can come up with. The Nino not budding like what was projected has also shifted focus to other teleconnections with very little influence over the pattern. We've been skipped over all winter down here, which is unusual for a Nino. In fact, going back, we don't really have much of an analog for what has transpired. It's like a mixture of a few, but we had normal precip in those years. I'm not a long range guy, I love the mid and short term. That's part of the reason I rarely interject in the long range thread. It's like pulling teeth, and I'm more of a shooting fish in a barrel kind of guy lol

Bunnies are pretty extinct in the Rockville area after December. Should be good up your way though. Just watch out for Bambi

My golf game is typically just the beating and cursing at my clubs. Anywho, wound up systems into the Midwest will favor a stronger 850mb jet and strong low level WAA. The cold drainage from the high to the north will hold surface temps as long as the flow remains out of a northeast to easterly component. Any southerly shift will allow for weakening surface inversion and a much higher chance of pure rain as temps can climb above freezing. We absolutely need H5 to be flatter in order to avoid a quick degradation of the thermal environment with a weaker, and further east surface low. This would allow for a weaker LLJ and maintaining cold air longer. Areas most prone to turning rain reside along the 95 corridor east, and south of I-70 because of the slightly warmer 850 temps leading into the initial WAA precip, so less to work with. The northern crew can still hold frozen through the whole event, but ZR/IP signals are marginal with temps near freezing. Best case scenario is moisture field comes in quicker and more robust with 850mb frontogen placed over the region to provide decent rates to rack up snowfall and produce better ice crystal formation. As we warm aloft, we’ll see more clumped aggregates transition to sleet as the nose aloft pokes enough warm air. It’s going to change over to a mix for everyone at this point looking at guidance, but how long can we stay frozen is the question. That’ll be answered more over the weekend. Be sure to monitor Meso trends starting 0z Sunday as they will provide a better look at the initial thermals in place. .

Can't like this enough. I said multiple days ago it would not be until the weekend until we get closer to ground truth and even then, it's going to be short term trends in Mesoscale guidance that will have a better handle on the depth and magnitude of the cold air available prior to moisture making it into the area.

This is just a heads up for future reference; positive snow depth change map is actually pretty terrible in relation to something like Kuchera. Also, snow maps in general are pretty terrible for the most part at range. Best thing to do is look at soundings, look at Bufkit, and factor in climo to get a better ratio analysis for any snow/sleet. They are pretty to look at and can signal certain trends in an event, but they have been way off. If I had to pick one, gun to head, it would be Kuchera since its algorithm factors in ratios better with ice crystal formation. Still not exact science though. This event will run 8-12:1 mean over the sub with lower ratios further south due to increasing depth of warm air and clumped aggregates. WAA snows tend to run down that path.

He's still trying to dig and thaw out from his Upstate NY trip

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen.

This is my feeling as well Bob. CAD events like this have been known to improve in the short term as models get a better handle on the depth of the cold air.