MillvilleWx

Where in NE Baltimore you from Losetoa? My dad was from Armstead Gardens area. Grew up there in 60s and 70s.

My meteorologist sister in-law sent me a video this morning of the snow and she was talking in the background and mentioned it was, “Puking fatties.” I taught her that lingo. I’ve never been more proud. She lives near Woodbridge, VA if anyone was wondering .

Wow. You have really hit the winter jackpot in those parts. Sorry to hear about the pipes though This has been a historic cold pattern with an anomalous PV positioning in terms of latitude, as well as strong surface high reflection with cold roots over the arctic. Plus a wavy trough/ridge pattern is to blame for the snow, which leads me to believe the Nina is not the driver of the pattern. Obviously will have some stake, but some of the coldest outbreaks in TX are actually from Nina's, so it's not super unprecedented. Although, the plethora of storms WITH the cold is. Truly a marvel and one I'll be doing a mega write up on in the coming weeks. Stay warm down there my friend, and as always, keep on walking

How you been holding up over there Jeb? I know this stretch has been one for the record books to the northwest

This is correct. Wx Balloons have specified mins for launch and we increase the amount of He in a balloon based on wx elements during the launch process. It takes less than 10 mins to reach between 850-700 mb, so even with a powerful LLJ, it won't be too far removed from the geographic launch point.

@high risk is correct. Most offices utilize a Sippican GPS radiosonde that has 1 sec or less response with GPS coordinates updated to the nearest 0.0001 of a degree, so it's insanely accurate when properly calibrated. We go through a process prior to sending up the sonde to make sure it's within tolerance levels specified via the company involved. The Upper Air process is very very thorough to have the most accurate data possible for a specific geographic region.

Warm air is a biotch. It only takes a small layer to screw things over. Had the rug pulled on my area for snow today too at the 00z runs. Everything shifted back further southwest. Now I get to drive to work on iced to hell roads for maybe a dusting for me and someone else gets bombed. Now I feel like I’m at home. Sorry y’all. As crazy as this winter run has been out here, it has not been fun since we don’t have the infrastructure to handle this at all. I have a long blurb on what transpired here soon. It was....something. Be safe with the ice today .

There will certainly be a few fatties falling there tomorrow. There will likely be some snow too

Shaken, not stirred?

It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso!

Hey y'all. I know yesterday I promised a map for the storm, but I got called into work today as another winter threat trended north right back into my neck of the woods. I haven't been able to look at much, but I do think there will be a decent snow for areas north of I-66. 3-6" with locally higher over NoVA west of DC, 1-4" for areas south of DC and 1-4" for inside the Capital Beltway. 3-6" line will extend NE through MoCo up to I-70. I like 4-8" with local to 10" for north of I-70 and out west of US15. Sleet will bomb areas south and east of US15. It's going to be a wintry scene for the area. I'll be following along a bit when I can, but I'll be in tomorrow for our own storm where 2-4" with locally more are possible due to convective snow elements. Good luck to all and enjoy the snow

I'm gonna make a first call map tomorrow after the 12z runs. I have some personal thoughts on this type of event and how it might unfold. I'll lay them out tomorrow. Until then, a colder trend into game time across the boundary layer would work wonders

12-18" is possible here. We almost had that very end of last year, but the TROWAL setup 40 miles to the east and they got 15-18". Our area is great at missing the worst and areas to the northeast are the winners in most winter events. We have our own jackpot crew here too

Good. Wife and I are fortunate we have had power through all this. We got 6" of snow with temps between 7-9 degrees on Sunday. Everything is at a crawl around here still. Thawing will really commence on Thursday. Texas as a whole got crushed. Easily a top 5 winter storm for these parts. Tons of ice and snow since last Thursday evening.

Whatever falls Thursday AM will be ripping into the afternoon. And yes, there's a slight signal for some thunder across central MD between 18-22z. Looks like fun

Thanks Canderson for the kind words. I'm just mentally trying to get back into things. Today was a day to come back from what happened yesterday. I'm going to enjoy history made here. Thankfully I have that going for me.

Just now seeing this. Had a rough past 24 hrs for something personal. I won't get into it, but I am physically healthy and no one is ill. I'll leave it at that. As for the snow, it's going to be something fairly surreal for me, especially considering my geographic location. I don't think people down here, including some of our own forecasters understand how rough some models are with handling the type of arctic boundary, coupled with a strong s/w trough. They are gonna miss convective snow elements and be all over the place with intensity and location. The impacts will be very high for down here. It's already enhanced with the ice around with more to come tonight and tomorrow. It's pretty insane, I'll tell you that. We are now forecasting a low of 1 on Monday morning. I'm calling -3 with the snow cover, at the highest. I've seen this song and dance before back home. It'll be a top 5 coldest day ever in Midland on Monday. I'll try to take some pictures.

I'm gonna have to stay up and go out, if I can, on Sunday night with this next storm. Midnight Sunday could be something I've never seen before. Heavy snow with temps between 4-8 degrees. Absolutely incredible

That NAM split is probably one of the most astonishing misses for an area I've ever seen. Just.....wow

Just want to let you guys know that 2mT verification on the Euro is not good right now for areas south of I-80. It's got a significant warm bias as it struggles with the shallow cold airmasses. Just a reminder when looking at model temps verbatim as it could be too warm within the boundary layer. This will be significant for the weekend potential.

That's sort of what we're looking at here too. Not as prolific mid-level frontogen, but decent 5H PVA with large scale ascent increasing east of the Continental Divide. It's got great potential if it holds together to drop 3-6" of pure powder and even more if the 5H presentation can close off near NM. That's what dreams would be made of there.

If I could control the weather, we'd look like downtown Buffalo here and back home

My wife is in the room with me and that's reserved for Mozilla Firefox......Wait.........

LOL .