MillvilleWx

I'm not liking the looks of this one for Louisiana. I'll be monitoring closely and praying for my friends at Slidell (WFO New Orleans).

Thanks! I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night

I know a few from the sub do it every year. I mentioned in the main thread in Sports Zone, I will be joining the ruckus as well. Someone has to beat @H2O and bring down his ego

There is too much volatility in long range forecasting due to the inherent chaos of atmospheric principles that bring us our ambient weather on a daily basis. There are also prognostications like teleconnections that are a main driver for cyclical patterns in North America, which are absolutely a driving force behind winter weather forecasting due to the addition of long wave amplitudes that accompany the cold/warm pushes from poleward moving airmasses. At a time like this, there's only takes on trends and comparing to previous cycles from years past to get a glimpse of the, "What might happen.." portion of long range, winter forecasting. There are too many variables to discern as to whether the season is prime for a drubbing or a dud. Until then, I wouldn't even sweat it and come back in the mid-fall time frame where some of the indications becoming clearer, but still a ways from solving any riddles on what might happen in the months ahead.

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Glad y'all are getting some rain back home. We've been getting crushed for months. It's so green here, but these mosquitos are AWFUL. Growing very old lol

This is exactly what is happening down here. Midland Memorial Hospital has seen a wicked surge with well north of 150 Covid patients seen on a daily basis. They don't have room for people, so they are sending them home with oxygen tanks and checking on them everyday. Pediatric facilities are seeing an insane number of Covid positive and RSV positive infants and toddlers which to me is the worst part in all this. This surge is worse than last summer and fall/winter for down here. Midland Co has a vax rate around 37% with over 130k people. People down here are anti-vax or anti-covid. Stories of people legit gasping for air before being ventilated, but telling the nurses and doctors this isn't Covid, it's something else....yada yada. Families fighting with hospital on death certificates is something else that has happened despite every single metric proving Covid. It's both a sign of malignant ignorance and disinformation campaigns that fuel a sadly uneducated and gullible mass of people down here. Education system down here is total crap. I'm so glad I grew up in an area that actually values education.

I certainly enjoy this forum and will stay and post. People like @WxWatcher007 are one of the reasons that I keep coming back. We chat off site during the year, and he's such a genuine person who loves weather and wants people to get along and share in the love for this crazy hobby...err addiction Idk what happened to prompt this response, and I don't really want to know. All I know is that people need to act like adults and engage in civil discourse without becoming a malignant sore in the public eye. You guys are great and I really hope to land back into the sub-forum for good in the future. I'll sit out any drama and post about weather, food, sports, and the occasional sarcastic snip to liven up the candor. Now back to your regularly scheduled summer roasting.

I actually came well within the budget I set. The dinner at Perry's was the most expensive, by far, but her best friend actually picked up the brunch the next day, so not too bad. All in all, it was a success and absolutely outstanding.

Are you saying it's gonna snow on December 5th?

Going to be a bit of a long post, but plenty of great food and beverage pics. Wife and I went to Austin last weekend with her friend of 26 years surprising her (All set up) to join us for the food and wine festivities. We’ll start with our first spot at SLAB BBQ & Beer in north Austin. The food was spectacular, especially the brisket nachos which we devoured. I had their award winning rib sandwich and the wife had the OG Texas Brisket sandwich. Both very good. Next on the trip for great food ended up being Waffle House, followed by a 3 winery tour where the girls put down basically 16 shots or double shots of wine lol. They were feeling great! Vineyards were beautiful. This one was my favorite in Fredericksburg called Grape Creek Vineyards. In all, we came home with 6 bottles of the good stuff. Picture of their separate Sparkling Wine Tasting area on the premises. Was a great experience. Next up, the dinner at Perry’s Steakhouse in Center City Austin. 5 star all around. This was out of this world. View of the dining room we were seated. Now for the food and drink! First up, appetizers!! The bottom was the Perry’s Famous pork chop bites. A delicate, semi-sweet BBQ sauce with homemade applesauce on the base. The chops were outstanding. I need to get the full pork chop dinner, which they are famous for next time. The top is a Fried Asparagus with a hollandaise sauce type, topped with chunks of lump blue crab. Need I say more? Incredible start. My drink for the night was a tasty Pineapple and mango cocktail that included two top shelf combos of rum and vodka. The orange in the middle provided a nice citrus sweet to balance it all out. Was refreshing. This was a heavy pour of Dom 2018 which of course was outstanding. I love a good champagne. This was a pallet cleanser. We all got the filet with Perry’s own finishing butter. It was outstanding. Wife here in the photo got hers with a lobster tail and drawn butter. It was grilled and had that perfect texture off the grill. Coupled with the butter, she said it was fantastic. Her friend and I also split these beauties. Giant King crab legs with a drawn garlic and herb butter for dipping. The presentation was awesome, but the taste was even better. Actually the best king crab I’ve ever eaten. I could’ve eaten several pounds of that by itself lol Now for the appetizers. A quadruple fix for a king and queen. A roasted cream corn on the bottom left, truffle Parm steak fries on the bottom right, a steamed broccoli in a butter sauce at the top center, and a King crab Mac at the top left. All of them otherworldly. I would do unspeakable things for that mac n cheese again. Of course, there’s dessert!! This was mine. A Bananas Foster made in front of me, including the beautiful flambé and all. This might have been one of the best bites of the whole weekend. Loved it. I didn’t get a picture of the other desserts. Wife had a Bday trio of a small Creme brûlée, chocolate gnache, and orange marmalade cheesecake. Her friend had a huge Creme brûlée. Nothing was left, of course. Now for Sunday’s brunch! Went to a place called Carve American Grille. Unbeknownst to me, it is also owned by Perry’s, so this was going to be awesome, which it delivered. Fresh fruit, a carafe of a peach mimosa in this picture. Below is a duo of Filet Benedict’s that I actually need get myself next time we go. It looked spectacular and was confirmed by both my wife and her friend. Also, we have the Truffle Parm steak fries again, cuz why not!! I had a French Dip style steak sandwich topped with a fried egg, served with a side of au jus and crispy onion strings. That au jus was ridiculously good. For dessert, because of course there was…. A trio of deconstructed banana cream pie, chocolate mousse, and butterscotch bonino. We got a little more banana cream pie ones too cuz it that freakin good. Superb Oh, we also kept drinking at Deep Eddy’s distillery after we were done. Man, it was a great way to cap off a phenomenal weekend of eating and drinking. We finished with authentic Mexican enchiladas that day, but I never took a picture. Whoopsie! We had a blast and I highly recommend visiting Austin if you’re a food lover. It is the cream of the crop for Texas. We will 100% be back to try more places. Until then, we will reminisce on this adventure until next time!

I would pay good money to have this at a restaurant. Wow!

I stole all your cold last year. This was probably the worst winter here in recorded history for impact and number of events. Our infrastructure is not built for it though, so I would like for it to not occur again. Me and the wife are likely gonna take a weekend up in Cloudcroft or Taos area in NM during the winter. Get our winter fill and enjoy the landscape. Drink some spiked ciders and hot cocoa. It'll be fun. Hopefully I can land back in the MA soon enough so I can enjoy some brutal winter misses and wins with y'all again

Why has teleportation not been invented yet?! Enjoy! Portland is absolutely beautiful

I need to visit Alaska at some point. I know a few people who work in the NWS offices up there, as well as the State Climatologist. There's just sooooooo much good hiking up there. I still want to go to Fairbanks in the winter, but the wife said, "Absolutely not!" Idk why she would think that

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One of the key notes for this is the marine forecasts involved and the winter products disseminated during the season. In this case, say we have a WWA out for much of the area, but it's borderline. The storm then becomes more aligned with a WSW. Well, that's a brand new VTEC code that goes out, replacing the old WWA. In a sense, you get double. Also, Sterling is more aggressive with severe warnings due to the plethora of tree damage likely with higher winds in the region. The criteria for a severe is similar everywhere, however the tree damage still verifies a warning, regardless if the winds did breach the 58mph threshold. There's a lot of variability between offices, but each office has their own feelings on issuing warnings. I think Sterling does a superb job considering the circumstance of the region they cover and always being under the microscope of DC. The most impressive out of all the offices to me is Norman with 14k+. That's a large majority of severe and flooding that make up those VTEC code usages. Last fun fact: Brandon Black is my good friend at KMOB in Alabama. He's a great met and awesome person. Met him at New Hire in KC a few years back. We chat a lot.

Man. Is there anything more annoying than taking care of a barrage of emails and logistical stuff when you get back from a vacation? Even one that was 4 days long, came back to an avalanche of focal duty stuff and an assortment of "News". Can't wait to do it again in September after my 2 week getaway

My first caffeine beverage is almost consumed. I'll probably have a few today to get through. Just rough waking up at 215 this morning. Oyy

Covering the backend of a mid shift for a sick coworker (3-7am), then I go into my scheduled 7am-3pm shift. Please send all the caffeine and vibes my way

The angle of the cold may not be good enough though

I'll do a quick drive-by forecast here. Took a look at the parameters for tomorrow. Basically, the area I have outlined has the best shot for severe winds and MAYBE hail to quarter size, although that would be for the more robust storms with a sustained updraft. Shear is lacking overall with effective shear only between 20-30kts max. Best shear is located up over New England where the jet streak will still be close by to give a shear ~30-35kts, which is better for sustained updrafts. MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg with mid-level lapse rates around 6-7C will prompt a chance at severe downdrafts in a couple storms. Not a big day, but non-zero!

2 more mid shifts and 45 minutes stand between me and a 4 day birthday weekend. I am so excited.....and tired

I completely stopped watching any national news agencies in April of last year. Boy, it's refreshing. I make my decisions based on data at hand. It's one of the points of being a meteorologist too. You make a forecast based on a multitude of factors and guidance and not just zeroed into one specific derived outcome. There are several variables that come into play when it comes to making decisions in life. Media is certainly not what it used to be. Propaganda at every turn feasting on human emotion. It's a barbaric practice, but money money money I guess. Oy