MillvilleWx

Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carroll/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6also in the running. Nice little storm

I want to remind people in here that short term trends in the NS vort are absolutely going to occur. Even a marginal trend in the latitudinal gain would make a significant difference to the proposed forecast. Considering the primed thermal environment on the lead up, the main factor for best accumulation will be the location of mid-level ascent within the DGZ that can really make snow accumulation maximized. Right now, the best frontogen is displaced to the SE towards the eastern shore from a line extending through South-Central VA up to Cambridge and over to Rehoboth. A bump 30-50 miles north is within reason, and would put NoVA/DC/Northern Neck of the Eastern Shore within play for better snow accumulations. Keep the faith!

I literally just saved this in my extensive "Restaurants Around the US" list on Google. It's deep and I've only tried like 8 on it, but I'm on a mission. Thanks for the rec!

Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here.

Canadian has the southern stream wave approaching Mexico City this run lol

1-2" during rush hour is actually looking formidable at this point. Love areas north of I-70 for this one with a secondary max over NoVA into Central MD when a weak wave ridges up the boundary after 12z.

That southern vort that hangs back ejects behind the northern stream vort and becomes a weak coastal. Basically what might happen if the wave in the south does hang back. Enough spacing to allow it to come north before being kicked.

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic.

Since you put it that way, I think I have to agree with you lol

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago.

NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error.

Checking with blended guidance this AM and with the current model depictions, thus far, here's my "Way too Early" thoughts on the snow potential for the end of week/weekend. Some updating will occur next few days if there's meteorological reasoning. I could see this adjusting each way, but actually think it'll come a bit NW of what's being shown at this time.

I am not a fan of the Icon overall, but it took a step in the right direction at 5H. NAM was heading that way too.

What about New Hampshire Ave?

ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one.

SECS: 6-12" MECS: 12-20" HECS: 20+" This is how I always look at it. 20+ would be top 10 storms worthy of their own recognition and name/date combo (ie. Blizzard of 96, Snowmagedon, PDII, etc.)

First time I have looked into this thread and man, some of y'all have some great photo skills. Absolutely gorgeous pictures capturing the best of winter back home. Keep them coming please

In the plains, no. In the Mid Atlantic, extremely rare. It takes one heck of a setup to pull this off. This certainly is the definition of, “One heck of a setup”.

ULL to the rescue!

I apparently ran out of likes to give this afternoon, which sucks. But, I want to say I love so much of these reports and pictures. Living vicariously through the sub

3.4” according to sister in Carney, MD at my old home where I grew up as of 5 min ago. Still dumping there, but a few sleet pellets are sneaking through recently.

Clarksburg is a beautiful microclimate for snow in that area of MoCo. Enjoy!!

Yeah. They are over 3” and it’s coming down in sheets. I wouldn’t be surprised if areas north of Germantown hit 4-5” before the flip. A place like Damascus where @jnislives could hit 5” at this rate. Im just living vicariously! Have fun out there

Absolutely pounding snow in northern MoCo according to my in-laws. They think they are going to hit 4” easily before any flip. Good storm for everyone. Enjoy!