MillvilleWx

Color me skeptical, but give me the under on Wake Forest, NC at 24" haha I will say the Carolina's certainly need to keep an eye on this one. Everything, no matter the setup seems to drill them. The sub-forum I believe did gain life with that run. It was a wild swing, that's for sure. I want to see the ensemble guidance.

That is a crazy step towards a MECS up into the sub-forum lat. Still a bit off, but the delay in s/w out west was beginning to allow enough time for the TPV over Quebec to move out and provide spacing for northward movement. A crazy shift in the setup for this run. It opens the door for a lot of possibilities, but we still need more confirmation from the ensembles to see if this COULD be a trend, or a blip on the radar. Verbatim, it's a potentially historic storm for NC and Upstate SC. Absolutely insane for them

Just a wee bit different I would say. This is going to be a whiplash week me thinks....

Yeah. Much slower at that. NAM might just being NAM things. It tends to do that at range, so I wouldn't even consider it unless there's a trend with other guidance. Then I'd raise the eyebrows.

But.....it nailed the NW extent of the 2016 Blizzard!!! Blind squirrels, nuts, and something something 2000....

The difference in the s/w position between hr 78 on the 00z and 84 on the 18z run is just slightly different. What's 200 miles between friends eh?

Sir, I'm gonna have to ask you to leave the forum for a timeout and think about what you did. Don't come out of your room until you feel sorry for what you did!!

That's the one! That thing laid a nice fresh powder from the Alleghany front to the bay. All of northern MD got hit pretty good. I couldn't believe my eyes when I peered out the window that morning. It was still snowing. NWS had to be playing serious catchup. No one was even in an Advisory. They almost had warning criteria near the MD line.

There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. Eric basically drooled on his tweets this AM lol

It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba.

I know some people are interested in instant satisfaction with the coming pattern, but this is one where Mother Nature is loading her shotgun with buck shot and not a slug. There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It’s a pattern that will have the chance to yield both smaller events and big kahuna’s. There’s gonna be a monster in this setup for somewhere in the east. With so many distinct 5H vorts parading through the flow, that storm is unlikely to be captured at long leads. Take a break from model watching and browse every so often. It’s going to be headfake city until the N HEMI pattern is fully established in a week. I would be shocked if the Mid Atlantic came away with nothing, but even some small events can make the area feel wintry.

I'm a giant stat nerd myself, so I understand. Idk how my wife puts up with me There's a ton of intricacies within the NWS on things, so we get some questions all the time. Sometimes those questions make us question our sanity, but we still answer to the best of our ability! This one is super tame comparatively haha

Hey guys! Wanted to clear some things up here. AFJ is an AWOS station that is not listed for the state report of temps. Typically, one office in the state does a state major climo report, along with some reports from their own CWA. My office does a RTP and OSO and LUB actually does a state report. AFJ being an AWOS means the station is 100% controlled and maintained through the FAA. ASOS are maintained and controlled through the NWS. The state of Pennsylvania choses specific stations to include in the state report, typically the major airports and population hubs. KPIT is the main for the Pittsburgh area.

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That band at the back is the leading edge of PVA rotating in from the shortwave trough pivoting through the area. There was likely going to be a large area of ascent in conjunction with that s/w swinging through. Don’t be surprised if that is up near 2”/hr rates moving through parts of NoVA and central areas of MD. This should push many up near, or over the 2” mark with other in the northern tier close to warning criteria, which is likely one reason LWX expanded the warning. Great little storm here. Delayed, but not denied. Ripping fatties is always great .

That 00z GFS run was one of the craziest, most incredible runs I’ve ever seen for CONUS winter prospects. It even destroys us out here with cold and snow. Man, I’d pay good money for that. .

Current HREF (High resolution ensemble forecast) still shows a general 2-4" for much of the area, and that's including the meh 00z HRRR run for most of the area. You can see the NW corridor more in line with the 4-6" prospects, which jives well with what has already fallen since 07/00z. Things still look good to me. I still like my current forecast overall and I had the 1" in there to cover for bad luck and inside the beltways. The snow that does fall will come in pretty heavy. Pixie dust to an onslaught for 2-4 hrs time, then creep off in the dead of night. After midnight is when the rest of the gang will get the goods. Snow is coming guys! Don't fret too much cuz you could be looking at cold dirt like me

Kolaches are one of the top 5 things I've enjoyed since moving to Texas. Just wonderful

I ran out of likes for the day, so TAKE ALL MY LIKES EVERYONE GETTING PILE DRIVED Things look fantastic in the mesoscale sense. It's gonna come in hot and heavy like when I mow my yard in July. Enjoy!

Hey y'all. As promised and hot off the presses. My current forecast thoughts for the storm. I did not include NW side of PA because I did not look that way, but very likely 2-4" with as much as 7" in the higher terrain. Enjoy the snow!!

Final forecast for the region. I may be low balling a bit across Central MD, but I have a feeling someone will get snubbed, but someone nearby could still be a winner. Lots of banding within the initial shield. Enjoy the snow y'all. I'll be living vicariously!! Edit: I might be too high for areas like Loudoun/Fairfax county, but they still look good for 2-4" so it works in this case. Hopefully the slug from the SW really rolls through the region. That could come down hard and fast.

Got a hand it to the RAP, it has been consistent with ascent being maxed over a large area where the HRRR/NAM Nest are not. GFS actually right in line with it too. Hmmmmmmmm

I do miss home and I'm gonna try hard to get back. In the meantime, I always consider you guys great friends and fellow snow weenies, regardless of where I live. Let's bring this one home

Heading into work soon y’all. I’ll have an updated map later this evening. There will be some finagling of the totals and I’ll expand the areal coverage as well. Have a general idea on what to expect, but there’s some boom/bust potential given the setup. I still think a few inches for basically everyone is on the table. Get that nap in today! .

I'm gonna try to have an updated map for you guys later. I have work soon, but should have some time today. Models are still trying to settle the overall setup with the energy transfer idea, but I think the bounds are coming together for the event in the snowfall ranges. I'll try to give y'all the scoop later. Wish I was back east!