MillvilleWx

Doing well over here. Just getting ready for the holidays and winter over in TX. Pretty excited this year .

That period from November 29th thru December 10th will see a cornucopia of s/w's that will be interesting to follow. Also, if anyone wants my take on winter for the Mid Atlantic this year, there are two periods I like for bigger events this winter; the first 3 weeks of December and most of the month of February into March. I do see a January thaw, once again considering the evolution of ENSO and the analogs based on the current unfolding of everything. I really like @40/70 Benchmark writeup and forecast and is very in-line with the progs from other LR forecasts from mets across the east. The core of the cold still needs to manifest itself after a late start, but it's certainly building over the Yukon, AK, and Siberia, so patience will be a virtue. Hopefully there are multiple storms everyone can cash, but I will warn, this could be a dud winter as well with the Nina, so expectations should be tempered. My forecast is slightly above normal temp wise with below normal snow, but potential for snow to bust high is legit 50/50 considering how things can break second half of winter. I'd say 80-90% confidence in AN temps and lean 60% below normal snowfall, but around 50-75% of normal with higher risk of ice west of the BR for later in season.

I guess it's that time of year I come out of hibernation. Who's ready for winter?!?!

Those microclimates in Germantown and surrounding areas are pretty insane. I saw that first hand for the 3 years I worked/lived in the area before moving out here.

Literally 6-12 hrs sooner on the 500mb closing off or 150 miles further west on the SLP track and we'd have been singing zippity dooda with that one. It was near miss that haunts us, but it was stupid close

I'm totally game for this. This would be a fun to test our prior to winter so we can meet and greet. Then during storms, we can have a good meteorological discussion on what's impending. This would be a great way for people to engage in a way that also emphasizes tone, which can be lost in internet discourse.

That's gonna be me on Wednesday. 84 here today with no clouds. Wednesday will be drizzle, mist and 57 max. Kind of looking forward to it. Tired of the warm weather lol

Ji would still be disappointed

I just decided to take a look at the cesspool myself and...........we need the meteor, like yesterday. Good lord

We could use some snow

BWI: 14.3 DCA: 8.6 IAD: 19.2 RIC: 8.1 SBY: 6.8

Just creepin. Did I miss anything the past month or so? I already know winter was canceled in July, so I'm caught up there

Idk what's worse; having a quick turnaround this morning after working a swing shift, or watching the Ravens defensive and offensive fronts look like complete and utter garbage for the umpteenth time in the past several years. I'm starting to realize that our scouting team are complete dog water when assessing OL talent outside the 1st round.

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Bringing this over to this thread as well from the Banter thread.

A nice upgrade coming to the CMC for the upcoming fall and winter. Implementation expected early next week (9/14). Here's a bit of a summary of the findings based on reanalysis of the parallel vs the current ops.

Ida is on its way guys. Buckle up tonight. This is the time frame of interest now.

It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope.

Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs.

Just can't seem to get over that hurdle yet. Tonight should be interesting to say the least. Quite a picturesque cane for what it is so far.

It's been trying a while. I think the prime time for the hurricane models has been after 7 PM CDT tonight into tomorrow. Still got time to really get cranking, but it's teetering on the edge of taking off. Once it can clear out, there will be no stopping this buzz saw.

My EM friends said there really was no way to enact a contraflow because it take A LOT of resources and at minimum 2 days to prep for contraflow. Plus, other states are involved in the planning, so this isn't an easy task. Otherwise, I would've been telling people to get out yesterday. They tip toed too much around it. Faster moving system. Need to make a decision ASAP. Also, resources stretched thin due to the Pandemic. It's a logistical nightmare.

Ida will be entering the most favorable waters in the Gulf this evening as a pronounced pocket of 87-90F waters are just ahead of its current position. The poleward outflow should continue to be more distinct thanks to the situated ridging to the north. Notice the storm will be entering the most favorable area of min deep layer shear which will lead to convection becoming undisturbed throughout the remainder of the storms life cycle to landfall (Outlined in the black box). The favorable time frame will be approaching as well with the diurnal component coinciding with the most favorable synoptics. That's one of the reasons NHC was likely bullish with the call to adjust up to Cat 4 yesterday due to the timing of all the factors coming together, plus an inordinate amount of statistical and numerical guidance showing a favored RI period between 7 PM today and 7 AM tomorrow. No dry air to be found either. All systems should be go for Ida to really take off tonight. I do not like the storm hugging the eastern side of the envelope as this points to higher impacts for NoLA. Hopefully many heed the warnings and get out.

Oh my. That looks amazing. Kimchi looks fantastic

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 155Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 150Pressure at Landfall (mb): 939mbLandfall Location: Cocodrie, LA