MillvilleWx

2022-23 gonna be rockin! Hopefully I'll be home for it by then

Idk if anyone bets on here, but the line for Davante Adams just opened at 94.5 yards on multiple major betting sites. Go bet the over with your entire 401k. You're welcome

Generally speaking, MA climo has a propensity to have some decent snow chances following epic cold regimes due to the baroclinic zone pushed south for a time which usually precludes a wave to the south that eventually pulls back north when the harsh cold relaxes and the moisture field from the wave moves up into a primed antecedent airmass. SWFE events typically have some of the nicer snowfalls in the area, but of course they can switch over to IP/ZR thanks to the enhanced SW flow causing boundary layer warming. Our biggest snowfalls are always phased, split stream events that align perfectly, but those are so far and between, but that's why they are special. Having a -NAO is very important for us to get those bigger storms, most of the time at least because they cause a slow down of the upstream wave pattern and allow for increased meridional components, thus opening the door for phasing or waves passing south of 37N, which to me is the magic latitude for potential in these parts. We have our sweet spots, and ours is around that 34-37N lat where as places like Philly want it a little further to the north.

Literally what I wrote above haha. A dang shame that the lead wave just completely petered to insignificant in the short term, but it happens. Looks like the "winner" of any snow in the sub will probably be confined to the Lower Eastern Shore or back into VA somewhere. 1" max, if we can even get that to occur.

Looking at the changes at 5H on the 00z GFS from last night to tonight's 00z run is pretty significant in the grand scheme of things. The height rises out ahead disappeared with less amplification of the lead wave, leading to a flat disturbance that leaves much to be desired. I mentioned this morning that the GFS was likely too gung-ho on the potential and the Euro too paltry with mainly nothing. I did think they would meet in the middle to a T-2" snow somewhere in the sub, and that seems plausible, although T-1" may be more applicable considering the short term trend in the strength of the lead s/w and the fact the digging s/w over Minnesota keeps getting held back a touch, which is key in its interaction with the wave over KY/WV as it moves eastward. The weaker the interaction, the de-amplification pattern downstream would hold merit, leading to a light northern edge with a sharp cutoff due to confluence over Quebec. Still something to monitor, but could be more in the realm of mood flakes for the Rt 50 corridor over to @usedtobe neck of the woods. Tough break, but it is early in the season still. Welcome to Nina's

GFS certainly bullish with the trailing s/w diving out of Minnesota leading to enhanced jet core dynamics over you guys. Euro is weaker, but actually carries a more formidable 5H jet on the lead wave. Might be a little under done on the Euro side, but still not like the GFS. I would say there's some compromise likely between the two models. I think GFS is too amped, but the Euro is too light given the favorable 5H setup. Still a T-2" deal for some in the region, but better than a shut out. That lead wave needs to stay amped regardless, or it will be curtains.

Can count on one hand the number of times those events worked out. It's not all my fingers either, I can tell you that haha. Best one in my memory was one when I was in college in November of all months. Back in Baltimore.....meh

There's not much more that needs to be dissected in the upper air pattern on the GFS and Euro to see why the two are so different. Here's the Euro for 12z Wednesday. Look at the amplitude of the flow out ahead of the s/w that's moving through the Tenn. Valley. The height rises are almost non-existent, meaning the diffluent pattern is aimed at VA with weak PVA over MD to offer some light snow chances that'll amount to T-1" totals with 1-3" south of Fredericksburg. Now, let's look at the 06z GFS.... Look at the vigor of the s/w over the Tenn. Valley and the attendant height rises out ahead of the disturbance. It's night and day where the diffluent pattern downstream is all the way up into MD/PA, meaning the mean QPF shield would be focused in our neck of the woods. Now, the thermal profile is more touchy in the beginning with some sleet/zr depictions at first, but when the upstream s/w over Minnesota catches up to the lead s/w, it amplifies the disturbance nearby and the dynamics aloft aid in changing precip back to snow for the back half of the storm, especially for areas north Rt 50. This is the best type of progression for a light-mod event with 2-5" possible for a larger coverage of the sub-forum. Keep an eye on those features as they are the main players in this ordeal. Flow will be fast, so don't expect any super amplification on this one. Quick and dirty is how you rack up stats in these parts outside the KU's and SWFE's.

Certainly not a bad look if you want precip chances, especially any prospects of winter weather. Looks like the Eastern CONUS will be under some formidable ridging around mid-month with undulations in the upper flow every 5-7 days or so prior. After that, the gradient pattern starts to develop with the extension of the SE Ridge along the Gulf coast up to Mid Atlantic lat. This will probably be a period to watch as any waves passing underneath can deliver some snowfall and/or wintry precip. This is defined pattern that's not capable for KU's, but this is a textbook way to score a few minor to even moderate events, if things break right. Source region of cold is building into something fairly formidable for later in the winter as Siberia over to NW Canada and Alaska have been extremely cold with more snow/ice build up further southeast into Manitoba expected next few weeks. The cards are shuffling, but can the area get dealt pocket pair or 2/7 off?.... We shall see!

If Antonio Gibson can do work, I will be happier than a hog eating poo.

How to Win Ugly in the NFL by Baltimore Ravens It's 2005 all over again with the defense balling and the offense looking hot garbage at times. I'll take the W, but ooof

Current GFS running shows something different with regards to the mean longwave pattern across the Conus. Earlier this week, we saw a greater wave pattern with a strongly meridional component to the flow aloft. Now we see a more zonal pattern with lowering heights from 60N down to 40N, but minimal undulations to cause a distinct pattern for synoptic development. It's a bit interesting considering the total 180 done from even just 3 days ago. Regardless, the colder outlook is promising for the long term with brief warm ups intermittently thrown into the mix on the lead side of progressive s/w's ripping through the flow. Want to see a greater involvement of these s/w's dropping further south to provide more ascent south of the Mason Dixon, but this was a potential with the December pattern given analogs, so we'll see. I still like the second half of winter for the east coast with regards to snow and increasing baroclinicity east of the Apps, so all is not lost. I'll be stopping by when something looks more formidable. The disturbance for Sunday looks to be a little too far north to give any appreciable flakes outside the northern reaches of the sub, and even then, mainly mood flakes. Have a great day y'all!

Looking at guidance this morning, there's a consensus coming along on the handling of the s/w's on 5H that leans more toward what the ECMWF was showing yesterday, lending credence to snow threat being primarily north of I-70 threat. The upstream s/w over the GL area has trended a bit flatter and doesn't gain amplitude until cross through the OH valley, making it too late for the Mid Atlantic. There's still some solid PVA as the s/w pivots through the area, so a dusting to a couple inches up near the Mason Dixon line would be possible, but any further north trend or a weakened vort would nix probabilities sufficiently. Still very very early in the season for the sub-forum, so don't sweat it too much. The period from Dec 4-11th looks pretty juicy with a plethora of s/w's ripping through the flow. Something to monitor over the next several days. In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving to all. Hope you guys enjoy partaking in the three F's: Food, Family, and Football. Have a great day y'all!

That last part is LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE

Alright guys, took a look at a few things this morning with regards to the November system. I will not be entertaining the December 5th storm for awhile yet, although that is a very favorable time frame considering history around these parts. No rhyme or reason to it, but Dec 5th is just a great period for winter last 20 years. Anyways, a couple things I noticed off the bat that show the distinct differences in outcomes for the region, and a lot can be deduced from 5H on both the Euro and GFS. Taking a look at some highlighted areas, there are two areas to watch. The first is the obvious s/w digging through the Great Lakes and interacting with a s/w piece that ejects from the Tenn Valley. Notice here the interaction already taking place as the s/w over WI digs quickly and starts to catch up to the southern stream vort. There's a bit of enhancement of the southern wave with greater difluent pattern over western VA into DC/MD. This is why the GFS has entertained the greater potential for snow because the dynamics are favorable as the mean s/w pattern presents some PVA traversing the area, allowing for ascent to be maximized at this time frame over the Mid Atlantic hood. The second area of note is the ridge axis out west and the accompanying stream of s/w's entering British Columbia. This is important as the ridge axis is favorable in both amplitude and orientation. This is why the later frames show a capture at 5H and generate a closed low over the Delmarva before scooting off the NJ coast. As long as this remains favorable, the area can score some flakes. If the ridge pumps further, the s/w over WI would likely gain more favorable amplitude and the threat for more snow is possible. But, there's also the other way, which is kind of what the Euro wants to imply. Now lets look at the 00z Euro run for the same time frame. Notice the orientation of the ridge out west AND the amplitude being less prolific? Well, you can thank a more powerful s/w disturbance causing a flattening of the ridge over BC which would have downstream implications for the Mid Atlantic. The two eastern s/w's are present, but the flow is not meridional, it's more zonal as you head Tenn Valley on east. This causes the energy over WI/MI to not dig as far south as necessary to really cash in on the better dynamics, leading to weaker ascent over the area with less southern coverage of precip. Now, there is some snow for part of the area, but it's confined to I-70 on north as the energy does provide some PVA for a time and we cash on what ascent is necessary. The key is having the ridge out west better aligned over ID and the s/w's entering BC to be held back or less amplified. This is certainly possible, but something to monitor. The last piece circled over the Canadian Maritimes is the previous low that bombs over Nova Scotia and would favor a better chance for the pattern to be less progressive and keep the energy driving out of Canada at play. So far, both models are similar in that regard, but you would absolutely want that in the picture. If that goes, might be a tough trickier to get a favorable amplitude on the digging mean trough east of the Mississippi. That's all I got. I'll be chiming in, when I can the next succession of days.

I love you guys Settling into work. Pretty mundane out here today. Will look at stuff this morning and give you guys a scoop.

It could snow soon More details tomorrow as I am currently out celebrating a coworker birthday But….it’s got a formidable shot imo .

Doing well over here. Just getting ready for the holidays and winter over in TX. Pretty excited this year .

That period from November 29th thru December 10th will see a cornucopia of s/w's that will be interesting to follow. Also, if anyone wants my take on winter for the Mid Atlantic this year, there are two periods I like for bigger events this winter; the first 3 weeks of December and most of the month of February into March. I do see a January thaw, once again considering the evolution of ENSO and the analogs based on the current unfolding of everything. I really like @40/70 Benchmark writeup and forecast and is very in-line with the progs from other LR forecasts from mets across the east. The core of the cold still needs to manifest itself after a late start, but it's certainly building over the Yukon, AK, and Siberia, so patience will be a virtue. Hopefully there are multiple storms everyone can cash, but I will warn, this could be a dud winter as well with the Nina, so expectations should be tempered. My forecast is slightly above normal temp wise with below normal snow, but potential for snow to bust high is legit 50/50 considering how things can break second half of winter. I'd say 80-90% confidence in AN temps and lean 60% below normal snowfall, but around 50-75% of normal with higher risk of ice west of the BR for later in season.

I guess it's that time of year I come out of hibernation. Who's ready for winter?!?!

Those microclimates in Germantown and surrounding areas are pretty insane. I saw that first hand for the 3 years I worked/lived in the area before moving out here.

Literally 6-12 hrs sooner on the 500mb closing off or 150 miles further west on the SLP track and we'd have been singing zippity dooda with that one. It was near miss that haunts us, but it was stupid close

I'm totally game for this. This would be a fun to test our prior to winter so we can meet and greet. Then during storms, we can have a good meteorological discussion on what's impending. This would be a great way for people to engage in a way that also emphasizes tone, which can be lost in internet discourse.

That's gonna be me on Wednesday. 84 here today with no clouds. Wednesday will be drizzle, mist and 57 max. Kind of looking forward to it. Tired of the warm weather lol

Ji would still be disappointed