MillvilleWx

That southern vort that hangs back ejects behind the northern stream vort and becomes a weak coastal. Basically what might happen if the wave in the south does hang back. Enough spacing to allow it to come north before being kicked.

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic.

Since you put it that way, I think I have to agree with you lol

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago.

NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error.

Checking with blended guidance this AM and with the current model depictions, thus far, here's my "Way too Early" thoughts on the snow potential for the end of week/weekend. Some updating will occur next few days if there's meteorological reasoning. I could see this adjusting each way, but actually think it'll come a bit NW of what's being shown at this time.

I am not a fan of the Icon overall, but it took a step in the right direction at 5H. NAM was heading that way too.

What about New Hampshire Ave?

ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one.

SECS: 6-12" MECS: 12-20" HECS: 20+" This is how I always look at it. 20+ would be top 10 storms worthy of their own recognition and name/date combo (ie. Blizzard of 96, Snowmagedon, PDII, etc.)

First time I have looked into this thread and man, some of y'all have some great photo skills. Absolutely gorgeous pictures capturing the best of winter back home. Keep them coming please

In the plains, no. In the Mid Atlantic, extremely rare. It takes one heck of a setup to pull this off. This certainly is the definition of, “One heck of a setup”.

ULL to the rescue!

I apparently ran out of likes to give this afternoon, which sucks. But, I want to say I love so much of these reports and pictures. Living vicariously through the sub

3.4” according to sister in Carney, MD at my old home where I grew up as of 5 min ago. Still dumping there, but a few sleet pellets are sneaking through recently.

Clarksburg is a beautiful microclimate for snow in that area of MoCo. Enjoy!!

Yeah. They are over 3” and it’s coming down in sheets. I wouldn’t be surprised if areas north of Germantown hit 4-5” before the flip. A place like Damascus where @jnislives could hit 5” at this rate. Im just living vicariously! Have fun out there

Absolutely pounding snow in northern MoCo according to my in-laws. They think they are going to hit 4” easily before any flip. Good storm for everyone. Enjoy!

I just realized you are in VA. Man, I need more coffee lol East-west gradient definitely works in your favor. 2-4" I think is a lock with a crust of sleet/ZR in the mix before any flip to rain. A true barrage of all the elements.

I would walk in knee deep snow with nothing on but a bathing suit and tank top while dragging a cinder block just to have half of one of those muffins. My goodness

I think 4" is possible for the western half of Howard Co if everything breaks right. Fingers crossed!

Even if the storm gravitates to the tongue of Theta-E along the coast, the phasing s/w with the ULL will allow for a negative tilt of the mean trough and the low will pull NW into the area. Absolutely nothing will stop that considering the 5H low track is well modeled at this point. Perhaps a tick east keeps the thermals from going to hell a little earlier, but there isn’t going to be a major shift to all snow for east of the Piedmont.

Ninja’d

It’s not. That’s pure snow. GFS algorithm is off there. Would say it’s an artifact of the site calculation. Wouldn’t worry too much about the GFS at this range. Stick to hi-res guidance and observations. It’s go time!!