MillvilleWx

I'll be straight up with you guys. I am much more afraid of getting stiffed on precipitation than I am with cold for upcoming pattern. This isn't me sounding any alarms on what is being proposed. If you want a chance at snow, this is heading in the right direction. However, there is absolutely a way we get very little snow and a ton of dry cold with the end product. I don't want to see January 1977 show up in the analogs. That would be so depressing to see.

I hope not. What an absolutely brutal stretch. A ton of cold, record cold at that and very little snow to show for it. That would make many here pretty unhappy. I would not want that scenario and that’s sort of what I’m seeing on the GFS. If we miss the boat on the front end of the PV drifting down….I will personally be pretty annoyed and ready for spring.

That period of the 4th through the 12th will need to be monitored super closely. There could be as many as 3 windows of opportunity in that 8-9 day stretch. GFS showed multiple ways to score some winter around these parts and there's more evolutions that would be workable with the progression of the Pacific along with transitory blocking to our northeast. It's a ways away and could very well shift, but the trends are friendly at the moment.

If you look at the soundings, there is zero reason for the precip to be at 0.00 across Central MD. The HRRR looks very similar, same progression, and soundings look identical and it's closer to 0.01-0.1" areawide. No idea what caused that one.

Only snuck to 30° here in the low lands. Already coming down a bit with the sun about to set. Amazing stretch of cold

It’s one of the reasons I don’t say anything unless there is solid evidence to the potential for something. I don’t think people here realize how many storms this area misses compared to hits. I feel like some people think we live in New England. We are the same latitude as Lisbon, Portugal…. We are actually very fortunate we can even get snow here thanks to our proxy to Canada and the bridging from Russia to supply cold air.

Noticed this too when assessing guidance as the 00z comes in. Can't say I hate it. The 6hr precip panels were actually very nice to look at for the period of interest after 1/1. I'm keeping the faith as we turn the calendar forward.

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event.

Happy Anniversary @mappy!!

I’ve been thinking if we get any breaks in the LR pattern for snow potential, it would likely occur during January-March. Still thinking we miss on a big one, but as @psuhoffmannoted, it only takes one stroke of timing luck and we can get the goods. I’m out on anything until after the New Years, but I’ll of course keep peeking at what’s to come.

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ The things I would do for that storm again

I’ll take the under on the 12z GFS outcome of Boxing Day 2: Electric Bugaloo

We'll sit on our hands, do nothing, and not make the playoffs next season and the FO will wonder why

0.89" at mi casa. Currently dancing between 39/40F for the temp. Tomorrow is going to be pretty chilly.

Small update to the forecast. Tonight we'll see some of the steadier rainfall poke into the area pre-dawn with the heaviest occurring late-morning and early afternoon with the setup looking quite heavy along and east of the Bay. One things for sure, we could use the rain, so it'll be a welcomed sight in terms of the drought. If only it was snow....

Nah. Today was supposed to be a glancing blow as the s/w ejected out of the TN Valley and weakened as it moved northeast. Best rains were for Western PA and we get brushed. Best rain for here is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the trough goes neutral to negative and we get significant moisture advection and favored ascent within the difluent area downstream of the trough. As the front approaches, we’ll see our heaviest rain given the additional surface based convergence. It’ll be a much needed rain for many in here. MRGL flash flood risk for Wednesday morning as per my overnight forecast.

Looks like Orioles coming in with a bit of an underrated signing here. Tyler O’Neil OF to a 3/$49.5 mil deal. That’s actually not a bad signing, but still not a major splash signing. I like it, but we’ll see how the rest of the off-season progresses.

Warrenton ASOS already down to 12F at the 2AM report. Going to be a lot of low-20s to upper teens readings across the sub-forum. Already have a nice cold pocket over the area NE of DC up through the 295 corridor. 21-23F readings for a long stretch. A premium winter morning on tap

Makes sense. I approximately measured 19” in Carney, but man was it tough. Ended up with 51.5” between the two storms with a 4’ base in my backyard after all said and done. What a run

I remember when I used to have a lot of respect for JB and I learned a ton when he was on Accuweather. Now he’s just a hype artist with a clear agenda. Sad

Interesting. I thought the 80s might have been a bit meh on the snowfall, but it seems like a few years did have some decent snows. 83 and 87 were for sure good years. Surprised at a few of those winters. That late 80s into the early 90s period was pretty terrible, yeesh.

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point.

They can absolutely still get it in February. The lack of snow right now is in part to a really terrible string of QBO/MJO/PDO luck. We've been in a trifecta of pure puke when it comes to a relatively good pattern and that had major feedback on other indices as well. We've really only been in it for 8-9 years too, so we might have more to go. This was pretty much the case in the 80s into the early 90s too. We didn't have too many snowy winters that run, outside like '83 where one storm really made all the difference. PDO is a bear because it can last so damn long. Just have to let it play out.

We had one as our DC last year in Mike McDonald. Better situational coach that is proving his worth on a Seahawks team that he inherited with a mess of a roster, especially on the O-line and defense as a whole. Harbaugh's teams recently have been prone to penalties and the lack of vision on the most critical pieces of a team build nowadays (DE and Interior OL) during the offseason have been detrimental to team postseason success. Let's not forget his propensity to have some seriously critical shifts in game plans vs certain teams that seem to plague this team every year. He is out coached by Andy Reid every time, he is out coached by Tomlin pretty much every time these days, and he struggles to get this team to make changes against squads when key injuries affect the other side. I had a friend of mine texting me yesterday asking why the Ravens weren't taking advantage of their safety being hurt in the game? Also, Mitchell for Philly was out for a time and we never once picked on his replacement who is subpar. Just lack of awareness of what is going on during a game. Throw in some insanely questionable challenges the past 4 years that were never going to be overturned at any point (Harbaugh has lowest challenge win % of any NFL coach the past 5 seasons) and you have reason that his best years are behind him. Lamar saved his job in 2018 and he's been riding that wave of Lamar's talent ever since. He was a great coach in his early days, but that was a different era. If you don't adapt to the game, the game leaves you behind. I like Monken as our OC overall, but he also has had some questionable play calling situations in games. Henry needs to get 25+ touches/game from now on. This is his time to shine. We did a bit better getting him the ball yesterday with 21 touches, but he was over 4 yards/carry for much of the game and we still went pass happy. Lamar also has had his share of struggles with mental mistakes and beating himself up after bad throws and such. He gets way too emotional sometimes. He has to just move on to the next play. When he starts taking his helmet off on the sideline and pouting or showing anger at himself, it's never a good omen for later in the game. Talent through the roof, but still needs to get over the hump vs very difficult defenses/schemes. That's my 2cents on the matter which are worth probably less considering I'm just a fan, but I've watched a ton of football and these are my observations.

This ^ So much of this is terrible coaching. We have an amazing roster and put up these pathetic performances too often. It all starts with the HC. Also hate to be this guy, but Lamar vs these high level defenses is pretty much historically relevant at this point. He missed open targets throwing and just not looking their direction. The Likely miss was probably on Likely himself running an out instead of an out and up given the ball placement. Zay was pissed on the sideline multiple times because he was open and never saw the ball. Lamar is absolutely insane when it comes to talent, but he gets too upset at himself and it costs him focus. He needs to take a chill pill and just move on. Happy with the way the defense played tonight, for the most part. I think they were mentally taxed with everything that unfolded as well with the offense sputtering deep in Eagles territory, and the Tucker misses. Tough loss but have to regroup.