MillvilleWx

The summary by Mount Holly really said pretty much anything I could ever add to this situation. The handling of each piece is so intricate that even a shift of 50 miles or timing of each feature off by hrs can add magnitudes of variability in the forecast after 00z Saturday. I think models are having a better time with the overall SLP generation on initial positioning down off the SC/GA coast, but the variability comes in with the motion to the north, especially once east of HSE. Pending the overall sharpness and negative tilt of the trough, fluctuations can occur that will have major implications on the expansion of the shield to the west. A strengthening mid-level jet max rolling around the base of the trough will aim towards the Tidewater of VA into the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Even with the GFS eastern bias, the mean right now for the Lower ES is still pretty positive for a warning level event, so the prospects of a warning are probably tied at least 80%, which jives with the NWS Winter Severity Index that updated this AM. My current thinking is above from my previous post, but I'll go ahead and quote tweet it here for people to see. I actually have UA balloon duty this AM and then I leave at 6 AM to pick up my wife to head to the airport to start vacation. I'll try to have more thoughts later today on everything after getting some time to diagnose model guidance through the 12z suite.

I think that's a solid starting point given all the variables at play. Gun to head right now, I'd probably roll with 5-9" at your place, 7-12" at SBY and 8-14" with local 18" on the coast from Fenwick to Rehoboth. I think the western edge will be super sharp with a gradient of 1-3" for FDK to the fall line, 2-4" along I-95 with 3-6" for each shore of the Chesapeake. I'm concerned about areas NW of the fall line because of the southern trend of the PVA max for Fri. If that doesn't materialize to the north, some places may get totally skunked. Man, if only we had a little blocking. Woof

The Euro 5H representation would not get in done for west of the bay, that's for sure. The thing bothering me right now is the Fri vort is now mostly to the south, which would pretty much kill any chance of snow greater than 1" for west of the fall line. Eastern shore still well in play for the coastal, so I'd still be pretty interested if I lived on the other side of the bay, especially the coastal plain. I still like the shore to get blitzed with this setup. Just a hunch. I just hope to see a little bit of snow when I come home. All I'm asking for

If I was working at Upton, I'd be pulling my hair out right now. I think eastern LI is game for a crushing multiple ways, but the metro corridor is a nightmare. No envy over here for them. Agreed with the boom/bust for here. East of the Bay is probably 8-12" with local 15" for CAPE's hood and the coast is legit ridiculous all out blizzard. I'm not kidding when I say a place like Rehoboth could see their all time greatest snowfall with this storm. They BARELY missed with the 2018 bomb in early January. My parents had 15-20" with 4' drifts in Millville just off the coast and they didn't even get the deformation band as it sat 2 miles off the coast. Some parts of coastal southern Jersey hit like 27" cuz they got hit by it for 3 hrs. This storm could easily crush the DE beach towns. I wish I could make a road trip lol

Euro would promote some pretty nice dendritic growth for areas along and east of I-95. 850-600mb temp profile is between -10 to -17C for the coastal portion of the storm with ascent focused on the western flank of the 5H low as it passes overhead, then strengthens once over the mouth of the bay. It would be a nice snow storm for many, with even the areas NW of 95 seeing some nice light to occasionally moderate snow during the overnight period into Saturday. I'd take that all day long

Very much my current thinking, so thank you for putting this up. Pete is my buddy from college, and we've chatted briefly last few days. His thinking and mine jive pretty well right now, as does yours now that it is written out. It's a setup where the boom/bust potential is high for basically everywhere, but the boom west of the Bay was likely something like the 18z NAM and 12z Euro. The phasing is too late for a coastal hugger, but a great timed phased can still put the western edge of the qpf square over our areas. Axis of deformation is still an eastern shore deal as the 7H low tracks off to the SE of the 95 corridor. I still think the end result is warnings east side of the bay and advisories to the west. I hope the 06z NAM is wrong with the 5H vort passage Friday as that would be pretty awful. That little feature is basically I'm asking for at this juncture. Nice big fatties falling to set the mood while my wife and I are on our first full day of vacay with family. Would be pretty awesome.

At least we don't have to worry about the angle of the cold this time

High probability that is a lot of NBM with some minor finessing this far out. It'll see a lot of updates in the next few days.

That run was actually how the area west of I-95 gets nothing. The vort pass was to the south and MD gets skipped over until you get east of the fall line. Eastern shore still does okay I see and the coast gets whacked. I see there's a trend who the winner in the setup will be. Coastal plain looks to get clocked.

This is going to be a pretty bad run for west of the bay unfortunately

It's doable for sure, but expecting a MECS for our area is not what this setup is about, unless you are on the eastern shore. SECS for US15 on east is in play with higher potential the further east you go. I-95 I would say has the best chance on the other side of the bay, but around 30-40% for the time being. I see the shore being the spot for this one. I think they get pounded.

Roadtrip to Dogfish Head? lol

It's still a 2-4" US15 to I-95, then 3-6" I-95 to CAPE's area, then it's easy WSW east of there. Basically all timing with the southern stream s/w. It is further west and phases/goes ape about 6 hrs too late for the fun to be further west like the 12z run. Not the end of the world, but still pretty par for the course for the expectation right now. Outside a few glory runs from guidance, this is actually pretty consistent right now.

Porn. It would be porn

Take a look at that whiter piece diving out of Canada straight into the trough. That’s a very important piece to this puzzle for a bigger storm potential. The quicker and sharper that dives into the system, it will allow the trough to organize better, sharper, and begin to tilt the axis neutral to negative. The only thing the GFS didn’t do that the Euro did is close off, which I am kind of surprised it didn’t. Surface could’ve been better imo. Maybe not Euro nuclear, but better. It’s really close to getting there. Regardless, it fits well into even my prediction right now, so solid trends on guidance.

Look north for the fun

Funny thing is my handle was actually representative of Millersville University, and not the DE town. The irony in all this is my parents used to live in Millville, DE after I graduated school. They live in Sarasota now. I’ll be in NW MoCo for this one.

Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all!

My favorite part in all this is actually that little piece of fun prior to any coastal. It's a legit shot to get 2-4" of straight powder for much of the area with barely any effort. Dendrites for days

That upslope in WV is gonna be no joke locally. Snowshoe should be getting more fresh powder, which I am always a fan of seeing.

@CAPE has some of the best shots in the sub when his house gets caked in snow. Legit dreams right there.

It's nice to see you south and east folks get a bit of a heater every once in a while. Doesn't happen often, but y'all can cash when things are right. I'm hoping we all are dancing with a couple inches of snow at least. Anymore to me is gravy. I'll be with my family and watching snow fall. Not much to hate there.

06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going.

Popping in for a quick thought on the storm. I mentioned last night (Or the night before. I can't remember what day it is on mids), that these Miller B or hybrid types are not our climo, but the threat was certainly not dead. I do like the prospects of some light snow, at the very least while the 5H vort pivots overhead and provides a period of ascent over a pretty suitable airmass. This might be a close miss in the end game, but these storms needs a lot of ingredients to go right for our hood. I'm gonna be home for once and it might snow, and I got to tell ya, that is the one thing I am hoping for. Snow falling is just something I enjoy, no matter the intensity. I prefer heavy snow, but who doesn't? If that's a way we can score 1-3" FLUFFY inches, then so be it in my book.

Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. Enjpy y’all