MillvilleWx

Anyone that thinks a potential storm is solved at Day 7/8 is absolutely out of their ever loving mind. Is it climo favored for us? NO Is it dead in the water? Also NO Anyone who does this every single day with the lamenting on a run by run basis needs therapy or to move to NNE. This is the Mid Atlantic. Our storms don't usually show up until 4 day leads to begin with.

It's a map! More details at 7AM

Just read a pretty interesting fact this morning.... Did you know that by replacing a cup of coffee with a cup of green tea in the morning, you can lose up to 87% of your positivity going into that day?

Couple closed contours over Tennessee says otherwise

Holy hell this flopped like a D rated horror film from the 80s. Boundary layer was just too warm to overcome. Sorry y'all

This map just gave me anxiety

I’m not gonna lie, the SE portion of the sub is still well into the game, but areas west of a Richmond/Cambridge/Rehoboth line are down 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th. Not totally out of it, but the 5H pattern needs some major shifts to get any appreciable precip up to 95. I would still keep an eye on it! Hampton roads area is certainly in the prime spot. My map from yesterday will need some adjusting

Trough remained positively tilted allowing the SLP development to not really gain latitude. Gonna be a miss to the SE again for DC area. Still a solid storm for the Lower Eastern Shore.

I think this is a very solid forecast. Topography and proxy in lat will be a big part of the max potential for this kind of setup. I mentioned earlier I really like the M/D folks with someone like @psuhoffmanbeing in a phenomenal spot for this setup. 850-700mb frontogen is actually solid for wee hrs of Thursday through about 15z. There could be a nice surprise heavy snow for parts of the region. I do like 1-3 south of I-70 at max potential. 2-4 with a max of 5” for north of I-70 with best chances over the northern tier of MD.

I’m thinking 6-8 cm is possible

1.4" +/- 0.12"

Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carroll/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6also in the running. Nice little storm

I want to remind people in here that short term trends in the NS vort are absolutely going to occur. Even a marginal trend in the latitudinal gain would make a significant difference to the proposed forecast. Considering the primed thermal environment on the lead up, the main factor for best accumulation will be the location of mid-level ascent within the DGZ that can really make snow accumulation maximized. Right now, the best frontogen is displaced to the SE towards the eastern shore from a line extending through South-Central VA up to Cambridge and over to Rehoboth. A bump 30-50 miles north is within reason, and would put NoVA/DC/Northern Neck of the Eastern Shore within play for better snow accumulations. Keep the faith!

I literally just saved this in my extensive "Restaurants Around the US" list on Google. It's deep and I've only tried like 8 on it, but I'm on a mission. Thanks for the rec!

Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here.

Canadian has the southern stream wave approaching Mexico City this run lol

1-2" during rush hour is actually looking formidable at this point. Love areas north of I-70 for this one with a secondary max over NoVA into Central MD when a weak wave ridges up the boundary after 12z.

That southern vort that hangs back ejects behind the northern stream vort and becomes a weak coastal. Basically what might happen if the wave in the south does hang back. Enough spacing to allow it to come north before being kicked.

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic.

Since you put it that way, I think I have to agree with you lol

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago.

NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error.

Checking with blended guidance this AM and with the current model depictions, thus far, here's my "Way too Early" thoughts on the snow potential for the end of week/weekend. Some updating will occur next few days if there's meteorological reasoning. I could see this adjusting each way, but actually think it'll come a bit NW of what's being shown at this time.

I am not a fan of the Icon overall, but it took a step in the right direction at 5H. NAM was heading that way too.