MillvilleWx

Now I know what I'm getting for dinner. Thanks!

I know. I know. Not until Connecticut Ave caves

So ummmmmm, this is legit a more serious situation brewing on the ECMWF for Friday. This is the trend loop for Ice Estimations with FRAM dynamics. This would be a memorable event if this would verify

The lighter precip being shown via the GFS for Friday would certainly be a worse case scenario for ice. Light precip accretes very efficiently as you limit the latent heat processes involved with ice generation. As we get closer to the event, using modeled output that has the FRAM will have a better idea on expectations for ice potential. Accumulated Freezing Rain output is not total ice formation. It's basically a ptype accumulation of precipitation that would fall as freezing rain. The actual amount of ice accretion would need incrementally more formulation to infer potential for ice. Given the lighter precip field, that would yield more significant results considering the physical process. As for the major difference in temperatures in the short term, WRF NSSL is also agreeing with the NAM 3km with the temperature profile in question for tomorrow. I'm curious to see any adjustments between those two models in the next 24-36 hrs. Low level cold can be tough to erode, but I think a case of climo will come into play. A sharp delineation will likely occur with a setup of this nature. 30s to near 40 over the northern tier but 50s into the DC area would not be a shock at all. I don't have any concrete forecast at the moment, but I would expect areas north of I-70 will have a rough day on Friday with ice accretion, ending as some sleet and a touch of snow. I am bearish with snow prospects. Edit: When talking about the temperatures in the final few sentences in the second paragraph, I was referring to Thursday high temperatures. I should've specified. NBM 25th percentile temperature forecast agrees with my assumption. 38-42 over the northern tier, mid 40s for I-70 down through northern half of MoCo/HoCo/southern half of Baltimore Co, 50s over Rt 50 on south.

It would take some time for the surface to drop for the ability to accrete, but the cold advertised wouldn’t take long. The airmass leading in is mild, but it kind of scales back overnight and then the hammer drops on Friday AM. Seen it go from 55 to 30 in Midland and ice started forming in a few hrs after precip started. IF the temps being shown materialized, we wouldn’t be waiting too long for things to ice up. DC might cuz of UHI effects, but burbs would switch. Flash freeze could occur as well once the temp dips below 26.

Also, for anyone reading my last post, I don’t explcitly think this is a slam dunk. I will say the ingredients are there for an ice event for the sub. I’m actually curious to see the NAM 3km as it gets closer. It does well with these air masses. Not so much the precip, but I want to see how it handles the temps.

This has icy mess written all over it. This arctic shot is no joke. As @Bob Chill alluded to earlier, the backing off of the WAR has been huge for these successive runs of the GFS. Considering the magnitude of the cold being modeled, you gotta think it’ll have the opportunity to cause some serious concerns once the airmass gets here. I think GFS might be a tad fast with the cold considering the density of the expected airmass, but it’ll hit like a hammer and any precip in the area will eventually cause issues. For any in here, take a look at CIPS Historical Analogs around 2pm today to see the latest updates using the current 12z guidance. Could open some light on expectations considering the environment both aloft and at the surface. Great tool.

So ummmmm, this seems like something I’m gonna have to track eh? This has textbook ice storm for a large swath of the country written all over it. Keep an eye on the progress on the layer between 925-850mb. That layer will be important for designating sleet or ZR for a good chunk of the area. I’ll be here for it…maybe.

Ballin! Right around my 10-15" forecast for the coast. Enjoy the winter scene today!

Looks like we had about 1-1.5" according to local spotters. We had 1.1" on the deck. Stuff was super fluffy, so accumulated nicely. It's gonna feel like winter the next few days!

Thanks! It was super peaceful last night watching it fall while I hung out with my wife and her family. Fire was roaring and good conversation. It was really all I was asking for. I'll see more big snowstorms in my lifetime, no doubt

A bit more than a inch here in Northern MoCo (Laytonsville, MD). 1.1” total for the storm. It’s pretty out

8” now at SBY from a trained spotter. They’ll get to 10” from this. The coast got smoked overnight. Southern DE gonna be in the double digits I feel.

The coast from OCMD to Rehoboth is going to get absolutely smoked. My god. A CLASSIC depiction on radar for a drubbing. Anyone down there will enjoy every second. Get the coffee pot brewing. It’s going to be a fun night down there.

Persistent light snow for hours. Chilling with my wife on the couch next to a warm fire back in MD. Life is good y’all

Right on the money. Would love to have a little surprise west of the bay. Kind of had a bit back in 2010 with the storm that walloped OCMD. Could be something similar if everything breaks right. I do think things will be pretty uniform 1-3” west of 95, but I honestly think there could be a couple surprises for areas east of the fall line. One can hope. Looking forward to the snow coming back for the area in the next 2-4 hrs.

I think the totals and everything will be in line with the current forecast. I think the feeling of, “Freezing your ass off” will be coming into play mightily tomorrow. People are gonna not want to go outside with those wind chills. Ooof

Slant sticking taken to the next level. We’re proud

We will see. Ascent is certainly great right now over MD and NoVA. We are seeing the radar expansion pretty quickly. We have colder air filtering from the north and mid-level ascent positioned over the area due to a sharpening trough axis upstream. The divergence pattern right now is favoring our area into VA. Expect the radar to billow up over the next several hrs. The key is getting into the banding features that are developing. Get into those for a few hrs and you can get an inch or two if you are fortunate. HRRR is struggling and so is the RAP. Could be a little surprise. It’s not gonna be warning level for this area. Advisory snowfall is looking good though. Enjoy the beautiful flakes. It’s gonna be a pretty snowfall and great for flake pictures

Light snow in northern MoCo. Big beautiful fluffy dendrites. It is super pretty. I could watch it all day. I am happy

Good luck to all in here today. So far nothing in northern MoCo. Hopefully get an inch or so later. Eastern shore still looks good a warning level event. Coastal areas will see blizzard conditions. Current call is 10-15" for OCMD up to Rehoboth. Hope to see pics and videos from there tonight. Enjoy y'all

I’m just happy to see the early show is improving. Hopefully that trend holds weight. Will be a pretty sight with all the dendrites. On that note, I’ve been up for officially 24 hrs. I can’t do this any longer tonight. Heading to sleep. I’ll post some thoughts tomorrow morning. Goodnight y’all. Let’s bring in a little snow tomorrow

I will be in MD by 230 PM today! My flight leaves out of MAF at 825 AM CST and then Dallas at 10 AM CST or so. It'll be good to be back in the homeland

She's a great meteorologist and is very careful with these kinds of setups. Has been in the past, which is very smart for around here. She did pretty well with the past few storms, so I'm sure she'll have a pretty good call by tomorrow AM. That's probably when everyone will have to put up or shut up down here haha Look forward to watching her on the news, live!

This is a solid forecast right now given all the variables at play. You can always adjust up if need be at these lengths. The 6+ down there on the Lower ES is pretty set in stone right now. Even the eastern most members in the data are at or above warning criteria down yonder. Hopefully we can get the western edge to work out! I'd love to see at least 2" of fluff in northern MoCo