MillvilleWx

Still unknown, 1-2”/hr are a pretty good guess. Current Top CIPS analog for the time frame is January 9th, 2012 which is one of our biggest all time snowfalls with widespread 5-10”. The kicker with this one is the ULL forecast is stronger than what was produced with that storm. This is 3 closed contour 5H with 552dm max. That storm was 2 closed to the SE at 555dm. This one has the potential to be more potent. Whoever is just to the north of the 7H low will ultimately see very heavy snowfall for several hrs. Right now, it’s near or just south of the I-20 corridor from Monahans to Big Spring, TX down to Fort Stockton. It’s going to be close. Someone is going to see a crazy snowstorm. Thunder will be possible under the ULL for sure. .

Yessir! GFSv16 is doing the same thing and NAM nest was about to do the same thing as the NAM. RGEM laid it down too. This trend is undeniable. Whoever gets this deformation axis will likely hit 8-12"+. The lift is off the charts. Triple closed ULL over the Big Bend is textbook for historic snowfalls down here.

Guys. I need the NAM to verify out here for Wednesday night. I will lose my mind

Merry Christmas to my AmericanWx family. I may be 1900 miles away, but my heart will always be in the Mid Atlantic. Enjoy the day and any snow that falls [emoji319][emoji3587] .

Just found out the other day that one of good friends from college is officially a "Covid Long hauler" with heart issues stemming from her infection she got earlier this month. She was a moderate case with O2 sats dipping to 89/90 and had to use a proning technique that her uncle taught her to breathe better. She's over the lung issues for the most part. She still gets winded on longer walks and enhanced physical activity. Her heart is under-going anomalous palpitations, so she saw a cardiologist and they did a weeklong test with a portable EKG. She has classic PVC episodes now, and are textbook for people with heart problems that are induced by Covid. She is a healthy 27 year old who ran every other day since I've known her. No other health issues outside allergies in the spring. She got it an outdoor wedding end of November. Her husband got it too, but he was fine. He's O neg blood type and she's A+. The blood type and impact from Covid definitely holds some weight. It's crazy. Just be careful to all in here. You just never know. Light at the end of the tunnel is visible thankfully. Screw 2020

I sincerely hope you are talking about snow....

I wanted to post where there will be higher viewer traffic in the sub-forum. This is a really awesome site created by a few researchers and developers for NWS. .

*See above*

Have you tried the flamethrower method? Great sear, interesting flavor, do not recommend while having an argument with your wife and she's doing round 2 of the flame-throwing

The ridge alignment is literally perfection with that setup too. You want those + height anomalies over ID/W MT for a reflection of SLP track along and off the eastern seaboard. The premise of 100-200 miles in exact placement of succinct ridge/trough patterns is a marvel to think about on a hemispheric scale. The big ones need that star alignment, and the fact it happens as often as it does is pretty outstanding. I love weather

It blows my mind that models are pinning a 85kt 85H wind max over NE MD on Thursday evening. Someone is going to walk with 2.5-3" of rain easily with this system. Hopefully no Christmas flooding at play, although I think parts of Carroll on west are under that gun.

The DC jackpot. As common as Chupacabra's and Big Foot

That secondary max over by Easton always blows my mind. There was literally a singular band that wrecked that area for hours after the sleet cleared out.

This is the Mid Atlantic. Carroll will shovel 2ft of snow and La Plata will shovel 2ft of disappointment

That post-Christmas look is what you want with the shortwave parade being depicted. Storms forced underneath with high frequency. It would be tough to get anything north of 40N with a storm track. There might be a sneaky event in there with so many pulses running around. 100% guarantee that not all shortwaves for the extended are even modeled either. I like the chances of some kind of winter precip with that 5H setup.

I remember that! Was a crazy good stretch of weather and what ended up being a damn good winter for the region. .

It's tougher considering NWP has improved vastly over the last several years. Yeah, certain models can bust on a forecast, but even this last one there was hints of trending negative for some and positive for others. The odds are lower, but they can happen. WWA's can turn into WSW's if mesoscale trends turn more favorable. A lot of it has to do with strength and positioning of mid-level features and sometimes micro-climate influences like terrain. You're in a solid area for winter precip in the state. Off to the your NW in the county is the best spot with Damascus and Clarksburg along Pars Ridge. You'll get to know the favored climos in the area pretty quickly.

There have been positive busts in the past. DC area won't ever see much in the way of positive busts since they are DC (sort of a joke lol) but it can happen outside the urban corridor. We've had some doozy ones in the past 12/8/2013 is crazy one. Called for 1-3" in the Baltimore area and ended up with 6-8" with a football game going on during. Was at that game. One of the best Ravens games of all time, but that's another story all by itself.

COD Meteorology is good. Highly recommend RadarScope if you don't have it. It's my fav radar for mobile. For PC, the best free one for me is COD. The best pay are GR Analyst and WeatherTap

Thanks for the feedback guys. It was definitely a tough forecast to nail down. There wasn’t a classic phase of the streams that can make things a little easier to track in traditional Miller A events. This was a hybrid with a further north close off at 7H and that really hurt the chances for a bigger storm, along with the boundary layer warmth. The HREF is amazing and it’s now got 3 storms I’ve used it for nailed down inside 24 hrs. I think that’s something to monitor for down the road. I’ll be a little more cautious with these kinds of setups for now on. You live and learn. It was fun to track. Wish I could’ve been up during normal people hrs, but what can you do lol .

Definitely learned some things with this storm. I tried to be even keeled, but once again, I got bit some on the warm air intrusion in the boundary layer. I wrote a tweet thread about it. My estimates were still okay, for the most part. My high ends needed to be trimmed some out west. I’m glad almost everyone in here got some snow though. I certainly miss it and being back home for these events. .

The proverbial Atlantic fire hose. A tradition unlike any other

Binghamton on the last hourly measurement has surpassed the amount of precipitation MAF has had since July 1st in under 6 hrs, with snow.......lol

Thanks Rich! I've been busy with shift work. Lot of evening shifts and now mids (Last one tonight though so pretty stoked!). I'll be stopping in more this winter season. Wife and I taking it conservative with Covid since she's really high risk due to a plethora of heart issues (Is literally a walking miracle). Once we get vaccinated, we're gonna do some serious travel second half of next year. Hopefully this winter can deliver some more memorable events. I'll be checking in more since this is my fav time of year Hope all is well with you and the family, as well as everyone on the boards. Now, let's get this snow!