MillvilleWx

Yikes. Hope y'all get better soon. My wife been fighting a sinus cold for a week now and I just couldn't get away and it caught up to me this morning. Woke up with sore throat and feeling like blah. I'm gutting it out at work, but I could really use some rest and Nyquil.

Boy. You share everything when you are married. A home, love, illnesses....

Yeah. I was looking at that as well. A little sharper trough and shift the ridge axis out west a bit more toward Idaho and it's a crushing in the MA. I can't see too many complaints on that run. I'm in agreement though with the strength of that southern short. If that remains feeble, it's pretty much a done deal.

Actually they're all the same. This is just a figment of your imagination

It's definitely a setup where playing chicken might be involved. In any case, if the GFS was a little warm, like it tends to be at range, in the thermal department, this is would be straight wreckage. I'd take my chances with an evolution like that. I also like the S/S short being more energized on its trek across the country. I have no idea what went on with that 6z run. Hopefully just a minor bump in the long windy road that is Mid Atlantic snowstorms

In the grand scheme of things, this was a pretty good run. If you are JUST looking to get snow, it might be a little too close for comfort, but if you want a big storm, this is how you do it. We've seen countless times in a progressive flow that energy misses phases and we end up with weak systems that can get squished in setups like this. Now, if you slow everything down on the other hand with the confluence to the north as progged, this allows for the N/S and S/S vorts to work more in tandem. If anyone remembers the H5 evolution to some of our biggest storms, a slow down beyond the Mississippi can bode well for phasing prospects. It's all a give or take. I don't think you could've asked for much more than what the GFS just delivered. Some colder air, sure, but man, that's a pretty solid evolution if you ask me.

Dixon is a more dynamic RB too who is very good in space. That's probably a great fit for today's game. Let Jackson use his talent, but keep it more on a possession type offense. Pound rock and mix in PA, screens, and quick out patterns. Take a shot down field every so often to keep them playing up. Moving away from the zone blocking scheme to a power game has been very beneficial.

I got to tell you, I'm a little conflicted on what I think will happen. I'm scared our defense will lay an egg. I do like our offense this game surprisingly, as long as Marty calls a good game. That's probably a huge question mark in itself. We have to make sure we keep them from moving down middle of field. We need to keep their receivers outside the hashes. Julio will do his thing, but you have to contain him for the big play. All their receivers are excellent in space. Pressure Ryan, keep them outside the hashes, and bend, don't break in the RZ when they're there. We need to establish the run early and keep it rolling to control clock. If we can't do that, we are in deep trouble. As bad as their secondary is, we might get a few good plays down field on them, but I still think that's our weak point with Jackson. A lot of promise with his skill set and he can pass, but I think his mechanics need work. I have us losing 27-23, but I could see it flipped. Another tight Ravens football. Wouldn't be a Sunday without some heartburn lol

I would never leave this sub-forum when winter comes around. It's still my home. Even when I'm not getting impacted, I have a ton of family and friends who are and you know I'll be getting lambasted with texts asking what's happening with (insert storm date here) lol. Tumbleweeds are a little more of an issue just to my north btw, but my god the dust out here is crazy. Had a front blow through Sunday with 50 mph wind gusts. Visibility went from 10 SM to like 2 in a few minutes.

Something that will need to be watched closely is the strength of the forecasted confluence to the north. There's been times in the past where the medium range confluence pattern is progged too strong initially, which is why some storms tend to draw north as we inch closer to prime time. Also, a slightly more energized southern wave is still possible as is something else we've seen adjust in the short term. There's still so much time with multiple moving pieces to sort out, there's no way anyone should be gunning on any one particular outcome. Now, ensemble trends were a bit more boo than bite last night with the general strength in the confluence to the north, but mid-week will be the time frame where models will start getting a better handle of both pieces. If ensembles are squashing the southern wave by Wednesday still, then it's likely the region will have a hard time getting a worthy event. There's not much change that needs to occur for this to trend better.

Over/Under: 47 Ji overreactions

THIS! Primary into Tennessee is the most preferred. If you want snow, primary to East-Central Tennessee and secondary off Wilmington, NC. If you want a big snow, you want an ULL hiking through the Smokies and into SW VA while a secondary drunkenly staggers from Myrtle to OC MD while on a coastal bar tour. .

You're going to run out of mental space soon man

I’ve only used this once in last 3 years. I think it’s time .

EPS control was a pretty solid look with the H5 trough progression cutting underneath, then taking on a negative tilt around our latitude. HP building over the top as the low pressure slides up the coast. This is one way y'all can score in the Day 10, but current progs show that southerly flow ahead of any storm with the retreating surface high initially will cause the thermal layer to have some issues for most of the sub-forum. The overall longwave pattern is ripe for that time frame with a pretty stout H5 closed ULL/trough entering the west coast around Day 7/8 according to the GEFS and EPS 500 hPa Mean. Interesting to note where it also enters the west with the base of the trough rolling through North-Central California. That's a good place to a wave move onshore and exit at or just south of our latitude. A little more south could work as well, but beggars can't be choosers. As many in here have mentioned, the time frame is worth watching. I'll be keeping close tabs on it as well as that system may actually affect our weather out here.

Just an FYI, there were some issues with the Euro coming in across all platforms, including AWIPS. They have since been resolved and the data is being disseminated everywhere.

I don't think you're going to get many takers on this one my friend lol

It's probably from touching that door handle you were stuck behind for 2 hours. All those germs add up

Watermelon martini's are amazing. This is just a friendly PSA

We got 81 forecasted for here on Thursday. I’m spiking my coke with rum and a lime. Welcome to Texas .

This is going to be an interesting conversation with others recalling this event. You: You ever hear the story of how I got locked into my hotel room? Them: Don’t you mean locked out of your hotel room? You: .......No Haha. Glad you are freed from the hotels grips Showme .

I just might have to do that when get home in January! Fingers crossed. Gotta beat 33.5” in 2016 to break my snowfall record lol .

Yup. Waltham, Mass. Got hit with 31.5” of snow and 6-8’ drifts. Just incredible .

Insane no doubt. Had to go 300 miles north to see a Miller B, but was worth it lol

North really. Maybe a little bigger than sleet (0.2" or so), but otherwise, they will remain fairly small. A lot of very strong bands within surface frontogenesis near the coasts can have them due to the moisture advection involved. That's why just away from the coast in CT they had it within that mega band. Here's a picture of the radar image during the height of the band. If you want to talk more about it, send me a PM so we don't clog the obs thread with stuff not here from 2013 lol