MillvilleWx

BWI: 5" DCA: 2" IAD: 8" RIC: 7" Tiebreaker SBY: 4"

At this rate, the whole herd immunity strategy is going to take shape despite it being an absolutely abysmal idea. There has never been a true herd immunity for any communicable disease in modern history, and for good reason. Traditional coronaviruses are more benign in nature and do not have ARDS tendencies, despite having 40-60% genome similarities to the two main SARS viruses. This one was particularly more lethal due to its high transmission potential and ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor. The only saving grace for SARS-CoV2 is it doesn't have the same mutation rates as influenza viruses due to lack of antigenic drift tendencies that aid flu virus production. We'll lose over 450k people in a year at the current rate, which will be ~75% of the total population lost in the Great Influenza, prior to modern medicine. If we didn't have the tools we have now, it would be the worst epidemic in history for the US (At least with proper numerical data to process. Yellow fever and small pox in the early days of the US and colonial period may have a say on that considering how many natives died from it). My wife is pretty high risk for Covid and any other respiratory illnesses due to her heart conditions (Born with a rare congenital heart defect called Total Pulmonary Venus Return). She also has restrictive cardiomyopathy and prone to atrial flutter from her naturally weak heart. At this point, have to be super conservative to prevent her from catching it. Soon as we can get a vax, we are taking it. Hope everyone here can stay safe. Hope there's some lake effect to be had in the future. I'll be living vicariously through y'all from my dirt here in West TX. Cheers y'all

Current deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to convey a borderline historic precip maker for west Texas across the Permian Basin, Caprock, and points east toward San Angelo/Abilene. Looking at historical statistics for MAF, the highest March daily precip was recorded on March 6th of 1970, coming in with 2.13". Current guidance may be a step below on the prospects of the daily rainfall record, but coming into second all-time for a date (1.30" is #2), is well within reason. Progs are showing around 2-3 sigma above normal PWAT's within a broad zone of enhanced H7 VV's under the difluent area of the UL cruising south across the Lower Trans-Pecos. A broad shield of 1.5-3" of rain is well within reason for the setup along much of I-20 from Van Horn to Sweetwater (at least). Severe potential is slightly higher than normal given the steep mid-level LR's and area of shear down stream of the ULL on Tuesday. I think one hindrance will be the shallow cool airmass ahead of the disturbance, limiting the thermodynamic environment available for a more pronounced severe threat. Over toward the Rio Grande from Del Rio into northern Hill Country, a little more pronounced area of destabilization is probable, leading to an enhancement of the severe potential. It's quite the setup.

IBM Deep Thunder Super-dooper LR Hi Res Ensemble says 2021 we'll see a drive by clipper drop 2". You're safe

Agreed! I know exactly where you're located. You might be right on that mix line, but sometimes you gotta smell the mix to get the heavy snow. It might be a bit pasty over there too, so it'll be a sweet landscape when all said and done.

Everyone in here ready for some snow? My parents live in Southern Sussex county in DE. My dad and I agree 2-4” in Millville is probably a good call with potential for more. Rt 50 probably the mix/snow dividing line. North of there should see 3-6” easy. .

I remember it like it was yesterday. I also remember not being able to play in it due to a severe ankle sprain I got 5 days before the storm. I watched it all unfold from the inside of my house. It was crazy watching all the news reports and hummers getting stuck in the snow. Great storm. Wish I could’ve went out in it more, but life happens .

Well, I broke the tie lol. Kind of surprised I never voted yet going this long. Any who, I voted for Feb 5-6, 2010 because it was incredible to follow for the days leading up and boy did it deliver. 32.5" later at my old home north of Baltimore. Most snow I ever saw until 2016. That storm was incredible in terms of impact. Feb 9-10 will always have a special place in my heart for the blizzard conditions occurring during the height with 40-50" base around my neighborhood. Not sure I'll ever see that much snow at once where I live ever again. Magical. 2016 might have been my biggest snowfall, but I was working during the event and really stressed out, so I didn't enjoy it as much as I would've liked. I'll certainly never forget it. As far as pure impact goes, Feb 2006 is not up there with the big guns, but with regards to impact on me, it was the storm that made my decision to become a meteorologist instead of going for a major in accounting. I was in HS deciding where to go to school, and that storm made me realize how much I wanted to become a meteorologist and forecast the weather, fulfilling my dream of working with the Weather Service. Now, here I am, 12 years later doing what I aspired. That storm, and it's 4.75"/hr rates, thunder and lightning, and measuring in shorts and snow boots will always be etched in my mind.

Congrats all on an amazing storm. Big ups to Ray for cracking 30". Welcome to the club! I've witnessed it 4 times in my life with PDII, Feb 5-6, 2010, Feb 2013 when I traveled to Waltham and Blizzard of 2016. Feb 2013 is one of my favorite storms of all time. Nobody messes with y'all's blizzards. Enjoy!

I know. Was just pointing out that precip anomaly wasn't rain. Not the same setup by any means.

I really do feel bad for you man. I've driven through the area, and I can see how you get that shadow effect.

'83 was a very dynamic storm. Very heavy snow over MD, DC and NoVa during the height with thundersnow across the area. It was a moisture bomb, so the snow consistency was a bit on the wet side, but it was a higher ratio at its height when best lift was centered over the area. My Father told me he ended up with 23" at the end of the storm with over a foot in a 4 hour span. Thundersnow woke him up and visibility was below 100 yards at one point. Great storm. You should go read up on it. One of the best the area has had in last 50 years.

That record precip value in 1983 was not rain either

Over 12" now in Millville, DE down to Selbyville. Looks like another 2-5" possible before calling it quits later. Awesome storm for the shore!

My dad just sent me video from the area your located. Visibility around 300-500' at best. Crazy band that went through earlier had to be 2-3"/hr. Enjoy!!

Hey y'all. Just checking in. Looks like best storm of the year for everyone in the sub-sub forum. After looking at everything, thought I'd pop in and give a call on totals. Thinking southern MD around St Mary's will see 4-8" with local to 10" if we get decent band or 2. Areas down toward Somerset and up to Salisbury will be in 5-10" with local of 12". The coast is where I'd want to be. Va Beach and Norfolk should hit 7-12" with local to 15". This line will run up to Assateague and OC, MD to southern Delaware in Sussex Co. Local blizzard conditions possible along the coast from Norfolk up to OC Inlet. Might not get full Blizzard Warning criteria met, but could be close. We shall see. Def a great storm with fluffy type snow so it will stack quicker than normal. Enjoy the storm!!

Dad in Millville, DE reporting over 2" of snow with some nice bands heading into southern DE. Enjoy guys!! Glad y'all can cash in

I'm with you there. Supposed to go to Caps game on Friday. I'm hoping for a stone cold crushing in DC so it gets canceled. That would be brutal to travel in coming from my way.

It's gonna be a roller coaster ride and a half that's for sure. Hopefully you can post in this thread at weeks end with deck pics and the little one playing in snow up to her chest