MillvilleWx

So.....we're putting $50 on the GFS, right?

I just logged on and took a brief look at the 00z runs tonight. One of the best details I'm seeing is in regard to the first 6 hrs of the event with the WAA piece. The airmass ahead of the precip is ripe for a better snow consistency as boundary layer temps are pretty cold. The 850-700mb Frontogen on the CMC/Euro is pretty respectable, so the crystal structure would start out as more dendritic, then shift as the 850mb WAA noses in, and we proceed to larger aggregates with more rime exteriors. You don't need hefty precip in order to have some respectable totals for the area. The CMC is a beautiful compromise for WSW criteria snowfall. Of course, a 12z Euro presentation would be epic for a multitude of reasons, but the potential for a formidable event has increased in my eyes, just off the initial slug that presents itself on Sunday and Sunday night.

I just woke up briefly. One more night of mids, so I’ll be on the model watch night shift. I must say, to see CIPS coming in that bullish, I’d be beyond ecstatic for all the sub-forum. Traditional caveats aside for these storms, it’s hard to hate the coastal low placement and strength. We don’t have potential for anomalous u-wind vectors to transport warm Atlantic air into a decaying boundary layer. We don’t have HP moving East into Nova Scotia as the low reaches MD/VA latitude. We don’t have a screwball low to the north that causes temp issues later on and instigates a drier NW flow on the western front to cut into precip expansion. If the GFS comes on board tonight, I’d say start prepping the shovels, grab the beer, and get ready for fun. I’ll have more to talk about tonight. But first, back to your regularly scheduled zombie. .

Eh. He was okay

I think the deterministic models are certainly better than the past, but the physics get amplified compared to a smoothed ensemble mean. So, one small shift in deterministic will have more drastic impacts comparative. I think the ensemble run this evening showed that perhaps the more strung out nature of the 5H vort might have been too exaggerated as the EPS even looked better with a more pronounced 5H vort pass and deepening low tucked in a climatologically favored position for the sub-forum. I was checking the Prob Height fields and was encouraged to see such a high prob of <540dm location in conjunction to the deterministic. It was sort of classic and even a bit further north than I was expecting. That's probably why there are so many ensemble lows tucked near OCMD and Wallops compared to Kitty Hawk. The ridge out west does bug me a bit. I like my ridges scouring for potatoes in ID and not roaming the northern Rockies in MT. One of those cases where a further downstream ridge axis will want to be a bit flatter compared to when its further upstream. Hopefully a Euro overamplification bias comes into play and it corrects. It's at that range where that can occur. Pretty classic medium range ECMWF.

If only we could get atmospheric rivers into the east coast. Stupid land

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker.

That in itself is insane. I need to move back to bring the snow back with me

The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation.

Recovering from a back injury, so I have not followed anything in 2 weeks. I'll try to look at things in the coming days and give my 2 cents. On mid shifts until next Thursday AM. Hope all is well

Congrats to all the Buffalo fans in here. Crazy game .

Idk what kind of luck I'm having right now, but models trending more bullish here for snow. 5H track is close to perfect for Midland, but looks like best ascent is just off to the north. I'm probably going to do an early morning snow chase on Sunday and will return in time for the Ravens game. I really hope you guys can score soon. I'm just happy we're getting precip here.

Come back as C6H12O6 and really make this place lively

Not for snow reasons, but I'm looking forward to moving back north at some point in my career. I was really thinking about doing Florida or SE US offices, but I'm just too much of a lover of synoptics and snow to not move back north. Plus, the education systems in the south are.....pretty abysmal, so I want my kids having a great education and to be closer to family and friends. Growing up in the northeast US then moving to Texas was a culture shock. The people are nice overall, but the environment, weather, and way of life are not for my wife and I. I'm gunning for Sterling/State College/Boston for my forever offices.

We had a crazy gradient in our CWA too. It went from dry to completely parched the further west you went

There was supposed to be precip but it was pretty dry sadly. Nothing really came to fruition until it was above freezing for much of the region. Sorry for the late response! Just worked day 6 of 10. Oyyy

HREF guidance at 00z pegs a corridor of light ZR accumulations across areas west of US15 out to the 81 corridor. There's a secondary bit along Pars Ridge in Carroll and the PA Line from Thurmont/Emmitsburg to northern Harford County. It's minor at 0.01-0.1" of ZR with temps between 29-32F for 3-6 hrs. It might make for tricky travel in the early morning before surface sufficiently rebounds above freezing between 14-17z everywhere. The further NE you are, the longer the sub-freezing temps will hold in this setup. Could be rough from PSU-Mappy-Jarretsville tomorrow morning.

I remember this run! This one is up there with the 65" NAM run before the 2013 New England Blizzard lol The crazy part is the map is actually good outlining the hardest hit areas. Was just a touch rambunctious on the total snowfall lol

So, yesterday I came in pretty disappointed after being hung out to dry (literally) by mother nature for most of our storm. The last 4.5 hrs, however brought some serious magic and we almost reached 5" for the storm total (3.5" in 4.5 hrs). It was incredible as we hugged the western edge like some people around here hug models. The last band brought 1.6" of the fluffiest snow I'll ever see for down here in 2 hrs time. I could not believe my luck. It was a banner way to exit an otherwise craptastic year. Here's to 2021. Happy New Year everyone

Thanks man. She's currently doing alright with the current meds they put her on, but routine cardiologist appointments will now be in her future plans. The blood interactive component of the virus is truly a marvel, and this is certainly not the first disease that has prompted such a RUI (Return upon Infection). The precautionary bits have been met with a calamity of issues from flat out denial and political pandering. The scientific field has taken a step back this past year in some ways due due to the political fantasies of both parties. One side being unrealistic in the scientific merit of what has been found and happening in-front of our eyes. The other in full sublime dissonance when it comes to the economic toll of just "shutting down" industry without any sense of financial assistance needed to keep said business afloat. That's a story for another time. The human toll of this pandemic is something I hope to never see ever again. Communicable diseases are a completely different beast than say Cancer or any type of disease due to human genetic mutation factors and non-transmissible components (Type 2 diabetes for example). One thing I learned from the pandemic are there are a lot of selfish pricks in this country, and globally, and stupidity has run amuck on society. That's a pandemic that will never be solved and is growing at an uncomfortable rate. Sad but true story there. Stay safe up there!

Just found out the other day that one of good friends from college is officially a "Covid Long hauler" with heart issues stemming from her infection she got earlier this month. She was a moderate case with O2 sats dipping to 89/90 and had to use a proning technique that her uncle taught her to breathe better. She's over the lung issues for the most part. She still gets winded on longer walks and enhanced physical activity. Her heart is under-going anomalous palpitations, so she saw a cardiologist and they did a weeklong test with a portable EKG. She has classic PVC episodes now, and are textbook for people with heart problems that are induced by Covid. She is a healthy 27 year old who ran every other day since I've known her. No other health issues outside allergies in the spring. She got it an outdoor wedding end of November. Her husband got it too, but he was fine. He's O neg blood type and she's A+. The blood type and impact from Covid definitely holds some weight. It's crazy. Just be careful to all in here. You just never know. Light at the end of the tunnel is visible thankfully. Screw 2020

Anywhere here. Lewisburg is probably where I would setup. I see them 20-24" with up to 30" possible

Looking at mean soundings over a general area, the best chance for TSSN will be located across eastern PA near the Pocono's, but there is a secondary shot between 00-06z Thu over central PA within the deformation axis. There's a bit of conditional instability for a time between Harrisburg and State College during the height. It's not a slam dunk imo, but I can see some thunder for sure in places.

You guys are going to get an unmitigated beatdown on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. I still like my I-81 corridor with jack over Northern York county. Perhaps up to Selinsgrove, then east to the Poconos as well. Absolute destruction. I can't wait to see pictures. Enjoy y'all

Hey y'all! Before I head back to bed, since I'm in the middle of a stretch of mid shifts, I want to say thank you for all the great comments. You guys were my first home in the forum when I lived at Millersville. My roots are in Baltimore area and the Mid Atlantic in general, but my posting didn't truly begin until I was at school. I miss you all and I am working hard at the NWS to try and set myself up to move back east to either Sterling, State College, or Mount Holly (And perhaps Boston if the opportunity arises). I think PA is the winner for this one and several of you in the forum will see 10-20" with lolli's to 2' in the sub. I wouldn't even rule out a 24-28" for some lucky SOB lol. I still love the US15 to 81 corridor with a max generally positioned over the York Hills in the northern tier of the county up to central PA for areas south of State College. That's where I think the best 7H frontogen will be located for an extended period when the deformation axis develops Wednesday night into Thursday AM. Look for the pivot! I'll check in every now and then during the storm. Hope everyone is healthy and ready for some snow xMDxSon is my twitter handle. It's also my XBL gamertag since I first created the account years and years ago for gaming news. If anyone wants to play some COD sometime, send me a PM!