MillvilleWx

I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those.

I imagine you do well with this setup. Sterling/Ashburn area should stay most, if not all snow. Hopefully the early morning hrs on Monday are nice and thumpy

Ohhhhhh yes. We don’t use the snowfall verbatim, but we do utilize the QPF as a base point and generate our own ratios with the NBM mean Snow Ratio a typical starting point. It’s all about know how to interpret the model and use to your advantage. It’s probability fields are also solid.

I like 4-6” for you with a potential for up to 8”. I think you’ll have some really good ratios to work with most of the storm. 7H FGEN should be best along the M/D with the 85H FGEN further south. Someone in MD/VA/DE is getting 10+ out of this.

The range is the 1st and 3rd quartile (25th and 75th percentile). The mean forecast is the point forecast where you can select it on the LWX Winter page.

It might be tough for CTP but I think LWX is square in the line for a WSW. ECMWF has been a rock recently, and that’s good, but it’s primary ensembles that make up the NBM have this a bit further north. The 3km NAM is a good indication that the EC will likely correct north a bit. I could be wrong and everything shifts south from the CAMs, but it’s tough to deviate hard from the NBM at this range. It’s typically good with the axis of QPF. We’ve seen this type of setup before. A strong 85H LLJ will typically favor a bump north at game time. Something the Nest and some of the other CAMs might be picking up on. We shall see! I do think LWX goes with warnings and CTP will be on the edge for the southern tier of counties.

I’m surprised he doesn’t just post a screenshot of the ECMWF and call it his forecast. Basically what is usually is. Model blend of 90% ECMWF and 10% DT

Fortunately after a watch is issued, warnings are collaborated via office to office and not WPC necessary. We have had some times we were asked to come on in more delicate circumstances for mediation if one office is on the fence or not. Not going to be needed this go around.

Agreed. I feel even a north jog of that run would absolutely smoke DC up through Rt50. Hell, even the Nam Nest was disgusting and it's by far the furthest north. Might actually be reeling this one in, Matt!

Man, even a slight north shift would be epic for the DC area. Amazing run

5H and 7H over KY moving east look very tasty. That should be some good stuff between 00-09z Tuesday

Last but not least, some precip panels from the 06z NAM Nest Total QPF thru 18z Monday (Still more storm left!) Kuchera Snowfall thru 18z Monday

Both are useful! There's some 7H FGEN in there as well but the 85H was just incredibly impressive, so wanted to share.

Pretty incredible beat down for many in here. Even a slight south shift would pay dividends. Incredible that there is still more storm left with the trough back in KY

850mb FGEN on the 06z Nam Nest

There's notable difference in the handling of the thermals by the NAM Nest and the parent 12km. The Nest does a good job with the physical nature of evaporative cooling in the column when heavier precip moves overhead as the soundings between 850-750 drop to isothermal or colder, maintaining snow for longer periods of time. Only when the precip starts to lighten up the afternoon a touch does the thermal profile become more favorable for IP chances. Even so, the areal extent does not get much further than US50 in MD to DC and stays mostly snow in the Northern neck of VA. The second part of the storm is still to go as well on the Nest since it only goes out to 18z Mon and the trough is still all the way back into KY. It's a pretty formidable shortwave, so a pass underneath would likely spark the second round of precip which would be higher ratio fluff before exiting the area. You can tack on 1-4" with that feature alone bringing totals to 6-10" between I-66 to I-70, then along and north of I-70, totals would be 8-12" with local to 15" most likely, verbatim. This run was similar to my thoughts on how this storm might play out with multiple banding features across the region. The 85H FGEN panels are sick and would likely allow for one hell of a scene on Monday morning in these parts. Of course, will have to see how the runs hold, but this is a time frame to now take interest in the Nest. Yes it's at range, but this model has a history of scoping out thermal progressions in these setups and has the resolution to fine tune these types of details as we get closer to game time. A slight south adjustment would still make almost everyone in here happy to some degree. Good run

I was on the collaboration call and you would be correct haha

Watches will be posted overnight by offices in the Mid Atlantic. You'll see them in the morning when you wake

Mitch, I've been looking at cluster analysis since the 00z came in and the grand ensemble has you at 4.5" and the top two clusters have you at 5", and that's with a rudimentary 10:1 ratio across the board. I think you'll see 4-8" at this juncture, but we'll see how it all plays out.

Yup! DE really gets the goods on any run that gets the CCB going. Nice high ratio fluff to round it all out.

Loved that place growing up!

Back over the summer. Bit closer to work and a little better living arrangement (Personal stuff). Wife and I might be settling in Northern AA or out by Mt Airy in 2026. That's the goal. Financially will be considerably better by then with student loans and car payments all paid off. Amazing how much money that will open up. Btw, I grew up less than 12 min from you. Carney/Cub Hill area. I lived off Northwind and Harford Rd. Loved that area. Was a neat little microclimate outside the Beltway.

Cautiously optimistic for us lowlanders. Edgewater/Annapolis is consistently on the northern fringe of the IP line. One thing I do love seeing is consistency on the CCB pull through for here. If that materializes....we will get raked before the storm bids, "Au Revoir!" on its way out. One of the reasons we see the 2-4" uptick for Eastern AA Co. Fingers crossed!

Ah yes, EMC! I keep forgetting about them. They are literally two floors down, but they just go about their business and are quite reserved. Super knowledgeable people down there at NCWCP. Appreciate the response

FV3 at the end of the run, so take it for what it's worth, but considering the antecedent airmass and wet bulb temps, there's a good possibility many of us are snowing early Monday morning between 22-26F with DCA probably reporting 28-29. In any case, surface temps look really solid to stay at or below freezing for many in here.