MillvilleWx

Yeah. It's really impressive down there. The system has a long way to go. We just started the goods for the area. Let's keep this party going, shall we

Snow is a steady light variety but picking up in intensity slowly. Everything is completely covered with a solid coating. Storm just begun too. Great start with the heavier returns still off to the southwest with a ways to go.

The modeled Kuchera ratio for this part of the storm is 8-10:1 with 12:1 all the way into Carroll County. It doesn't improve until after 10z when the better forcing arrives, and even then 9-10:1 for DC and 10-11:1 for an average unless under better banding. 12-15:1 for areas along and north of I-70. Kuchera is doing fine so far and the model algorithm snow from the HRRR is also fine. I don't see anything wrong the forecast right now.

Beautiful!

Officially light snow in Edgewater. Every single flake sticking as expected. Temp 29.5/16.3

Sweet! Good to hear. I know it's basically on the doorstep. Gonna step outside soon and take a peek myself

We might not start until after 2am according to the HRRR for the last several runs. So far everything is going according to plan. Every run for you and I has us in 8-12" before the second batch even comes through. We're good!

Good luck down there Navy. Should be a great one for you guys down there!

I apparently ran out of likes and stuff, so I wanted to say thank you

Probably not. Just along the immediate coast, so like right on the water at sea level. All you have to do is live a football field away from there and you'll be totally fine. I wouldn't sweat anything tbh. It's going to snow really good tomorrow morning around these parts.

Hey Jeb! I'm thinking 7-12" with up to 15" is pretty good call. 7" is for right along the bay, but even a small touch away from the bay will likely see 8+". Should be pretty! I'll be sure to get in a snow Jebwalk for you

Honest to God cannot get over these 850mb FGEN proposals on the models for my area and basically the US50. It is absolutely insane and has not budged in its presentation for the last 12 hrs. If that comes to fruition, the lowlands here in AA are going to get absolutely smoked.

It's time! Good luck out there my man

That was quite a jump for the max, but I think that's a case of the potential rates within banding for this one. This has a shot for 2-3"/hr in a few bands during the height of the FGEN regime. That could easily take a total and take it way above the 75th percentile, which is likely what the range was created by (1st and 3rd quartile outcomes).

True! Mainly the totals aspect. Not often we see 16" on a WSW. Handful every 4-8 years. Good luck up there in Northern Baltimore Co. I'm hoping a nice band setups up and the northern tier cashes and everyone gets the goods!

Damn....What an event this is gonna be. Don't see WSW's like that too often

Yeah. I wasn't expecting anything for a while yet. This will be a case things moisten up, start out light and then begin to pick up in earnest once the LLJ cranks into Central VA and the 85H FGEN advances north. I don't think some realize the type of wall that is approaching. Our best ascent is still way to the south. Hi-res hasn't wavered one bit. The only change, and was expected was the tightening of the northern gradient from the confluent area to the north. That's why the maxima is showing up where it is and there are secondary mini-maxes to the south of the primary confluence where the convergence of 7H FGEN and the orographic enhancements north of I-70 will help those areas despite the lower QPF output. Ratios will likely be 12-15:1 on average for those zones. 10-12:1 across the district and locally higher pending positioning in bands from the 85H FGEN. That area seems to lie between I-70 down to just north of I-66 and points east. One interesting note is the primary spot to be with this could end of being a place like Easton or Cambridge, MD over into Sussex Co. DE. That area is right in the crush zone, imo. This is going to be a nice storm. I know it's dry, but it'll be fine. Wet bulbs into the low to mid-20s for many in here. Snow will fall and it will stick instantly. Let's enjoy it!!

Awesome. Right in line with my thoughts. I have the max potential at 14" if we get lucky with banding. Going to be a great storm!

After some assessment, no major changes to my forecast. I do feel a secondary jack across NW MoCo, Western HoCo could occur when looking closely, but I’m gonna let chips fall. It’s gonna snow and snow heavily. I still can’t believe my luck where I’m at. Didn’t think my 16ft elevation would be in this spot, but here we are! Im so stoked y’all. I’ll be up all night for my WFM shift and then staying up till about 9/10am for the peak before some sleep during the lull. I’ll be here all night. Let’s rock!

Finally got a clue. Congrats to it lol

No worries, Scott!! I appreciate any forecast you could offer. I truly meant everything in my last post! This will be my biggest snow event since I moved back to MD from TX. Pretty stoked. Now we just need a I-95 KU from Richmond to Boston so we can all sing kumbaya and toast to an east coast victory. Cheers

From one Scott to another, Appreciate stopping by and chatting with us. I always love when you stop by and offer thoughts. You were one of the many on here I learned a lot from over the past 15 years. I mean it sincerely that you are one of my favorite posters on this board and appreciate your insight. A cold beer on me next time I’m in Southern New England As just one question for you…how much do you have for the Annapolis area? (I had to ask )

Hey my man. That’s the NDFD map, the map of the forecast offices official forecasts. NBM a bit different.

Yesssss!!!! I am so happy for you guys down there. Bring it home Augusta county crew!! @wxdude64 @WesternFringe

Well y’all, it’s finally here. We’ve been tracking this thing down for over 10 days and it all comes down to this. A small shoutout to NWP for being able to pick up on a threat this far out with n/s energy playing a role in it all. Currently 32/9 at my place. If you’re in the lowlands of AA county, this one is for us. The 25th percentile on the NBM as of early this morning for DCA/Annapolis/Crofton/Bowie/ @usedtobe hoods are ~7” and I don’t see that waver. My forecast for Annapolis and my area is 7-12” w/ local to 14” DC area: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Baltimore: 5-9” w/ local to 10” WV Panhandle: 5-10” w/ local to 11” NoVA north of EZF: 6-12” EZF south: 3-6” w/ some sleet Area between Frederick-Baltimore-Silver Spring-Poolesville: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Catoctins: 7-12” Rt15 corridor down to I-66 VA: 6-12” West of Rt15 in MD: 5-10” Western MD: 8-14” North of I-70 between Frederick and Baltimore: 5-8” w/ local to 10” (Trickiest area due to confluence signature to the north) Far Southern PA: 3-7” w/ local to 8” near the M/D plausible. Less further north you go. Eastern Shore North of Rt50 in MD ( @CAPE country): 5-9” w/ local to 10” Eastern Shore along and South of Rt50 until south of St Mary’s Co latitude: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware North of Dover: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware South of Dover: 5-10” w/ local to 12” Jackpot Zone between MD32 down to Calvert County and over to Sussex Co DE: Storm max of 14” Tried my best on these and hopefully I’m in the ballpark. Woke up from my night shift slumber not long ago and ready to stay up the next 20-24 hrs. I will be working telework tonight and tomorrow night for safety reasons. Winter is here, and judging by the model guidance…it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Enjoy everyone!!