MillvilleWx

From one Scott to another, Appreciate stopping by and chatting with us. I always love when you stop by and offer thoughts. You were one of the many on here I learned a lot from over the past 15 years. I mean it sincerely that you are one of my favorite posters on this board and appreciate your insight. A cold beer on me next time I’m in Southern New England As just one question for you…how much do you have for the Annapolis area? (I had to ask )

Hey my man. That’s the NDFD map, the map of the forecast offices official forecasts. NBM a bit different.

Yesssss!!!! I am so happy for you guys down there. Bring it home Augusta county crew!! @wxdude64 @WesternFringe

Well y’all, it’s finally here. We’ve been tracking this thing down for over 10 days and it all comes down to this. A small shoutout to NWP for being able to pick up on a threat this far out with n/s energy playing a role in it all. Currently 32/9 at my place. If you’re in the lowlands of AA county, this one is for us. The 25th percentile on the NBM as of early this morning for DCA/Annapolis/Crofton/Bowie/ @usedtobe hoods are ~7” and I don’t see that waver. My forecast for Annapolis and my area is 7-12” w/ local to 14” DC area: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Baltimore: 5-9” w/ local to 10” WV Panhandle: 5-10” w/ local to 11” NoVA north of EZF: 6-12” EZF south: 3-6” w/ some sleet Area between Frederick-Baltimore-Silver Spring-Poolesville: 6-10” w/ local to 12” Catoctins: 7-12” Rt15 corridor down to I-66 VA: 6-12” West of Rt15 in MD: 5-10” Western MD: 8-14” North of I-70 between Frederick and Baltimore: 5-8” w/ local to 10” (Trickiest area due to confluence signature to the north) Far Southern PA: 3-7” w/ local to 8” near the M/D plausible. Less further north you go. Eastern Shore North of Rt50 in MD ( @CAPE country): 5-9” w/ local to 10” Eastern Shore along and South of Rt50 until south of St Mary’s Co latitude: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware North of Dover: 4-8” w/ local to 10” Delaware South of Dover: 5-10” w/ local to 12” Jackpot Zone between MD32 down to Calvert County and over to Sussex Co DE: Storm max of 14” Tried my best on these and hopefully I’m in the ballpark. Woke up from my night shift slumber not long ago and ready to stay up the next 20-24 hrs. I will be working telework tonight and tomorrow night for safety reasons. Winter is here, and judging by the model guidance…it ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Enjoy everyone!!

Big parachutes too looking at soundings. Would be a gorgeous time to go for a Jebwalk in the city

They all kind of support it one way or another. Magnitude wise the Nest matches, RAP matches, the other CAMs are about 80%, but same footprint. I'm starting to wonder myself. I don't think the Nest or HRRR will be right, but even 80% of that is a crazy positive "bust" considering what most are forecasting.

Even as a meteorologist, if the HRRR is even close to right for this setup, I will get a custom, "I <3 the HRRR" T-shirt and wear it to work on another set of night shifts. I don't think it'll be right, but this is getting bonkers.

Hey guys! As promised, I have some time so I thought I'd drop by and give a brief forecast. Keeping it pretty rudimentary at this point since I feel PA will miss out on the heavier snowfall. However, some snow is better than none! Snowfall Forecast for 1/6-7/25 Along and south of US30: Highest snowfall for Southern PA at 3-7" w/ max of 9" near the M/D Area between Chambersburg/Altoona/Meyersdale: 5-9" w/ max of up to 11" down into terrain of Somerset county Between the turnpike and Rt 30: 2-4" w/ up to 6" possible if the 7H FGEN sets up a bit north of progs I-80 to Turnpike: 1-3" w/ up to 4" possible I-80 and north: T-2" I'll try to provide an update if there is need depending on trends. Pretty excited for the storm down this way. In a good spot near Annapolis. This would be my first true big storm 6+" since I've been back east. Let's hope for some surprises and all cash in on what should be a very active first half of January!!

Pretty awesome tool @Jmister I might actually have to bookmark this one for future reference during convective season. Might be helpful in gauging ERO updates during the warm season. Been a minute, but hope you’re doing well!! I remember you went to PSU, correct?

I like the Ferrier for marginal events because it does what you mentioned really well. Wish the SLR wasn't capped at 10:1 since that is for certain going to be too low for the northern crew and even much of the area in the initial bout of precip and with any CCB action. My only gripe! Otherwise, it's great for highlighting areas that could see sleet/ZR. As is, that is very nice for many in here.

This is pretty much textbook for a cross-section of a WAA thump around here. Very strong FGEN signature during a deep moist layer as well. Verbatim, this is how you get 1-2"/hr for several hrs over a large area. Considering the strength of the LLJ at 85H and the RER dynamics at play with the jet streak to our north, there should be a good amount of moisture being advected northeastward ahead of the mean trough. A small window of lighter precip between the primary WAA pattern and the falling heights under the trough traversing eastward out of KY is likely, but that's the $1 million question what will transpire in the 5H progression as they moves south of us. If that can remain closed or at least move through at a slight neutral to negative tilt....then all bets are off on the potential within a maturing CCB. Jury still out there, but beginning to see some convergence on the initial stage of the event. I'm sure the mix line will be a bit north progged, but you never know. The NAM Nest outcome was fairly reasonable in my eyes given the variables at hand. The northern edge will likely sharpen and there will be a 100 mile swath of some significant snowfall across our area. It's just a matter of the latitudinal "goal posts" of where that will be. Fun times!!

Hey guys. No map from me for this one. I’m on night shifts and don’t have too much time to make one. I’m watching Ravens game then heading to work basically right after. I’ll try to make a post on expectations for PA tonight when I have some time.

This is for the lowlands people in AA county and points east…. I kind of like where we are right now for this one. If you are in Annapolis/Edgewater area, we are probably one of the better spots no matter what model you look at. 5-10” seems very likely. We will likely mix with sleet if you are along and south of Rt50, but I don’t see it lasting too long before we flip back.

Alex is a friend of mine and fantastic met. Agreed. I’ve been saying MD32 is probably the furthest north extent of the sleet line, but collapses back as the coastal takes over and the 850-700mb level shifts as the trough swings eastward. Key is the positioning of the 7H and 85F FGEN placement and I feel there will be split maxima with them. Inside the beltway should be good for 5-8” for DC regardless of sleet. I think that’s a fair bar for the area.

I’m hoping it’s earlier as I run the QPF desk tonight again. Pretty delicate situation. I will say one of the best areas right now seems to lie between I-70 and Rt50. Almost any solution throws out WSW criteria snowfall, so I’d feel great if you are between that zone.

I think giving potential for mixing, I’d say your max will be right around that 8” mark. I think 5-8” is right on the money with the current forecast.

I think 4-8” for your hood is a good call based on what we’re seeing.

No problem! I’d say they’ll start having a better idea by tomorrow, but remember the dynamics will be different, so banding and such might take near game time for that feature to get narrowed in. I’m hoping that comes to fruition. That has surprise upside if it comes together properly.

DC seeing snow in the 4th dimension

Oh yeah. I would say 5” at the worst and 10-12” if everything just breaks perfectly. I’d say 6-10” is a great call for your neck of the woods. I’m sure that’s what Sterling and WPC are rolling with as well. The backend fun with the vort pass is going to be the biggest question mark and if that breaks properly, there will be a lot of happy people in here.

Blackwater is absolutely gorgeous. My wife and I’s first ever trip away from the area while we were dating was a hike in mid October to see the foliage in Blackwater. I’m sure it’s pristine in the winter with the blanket of snow cover. Enjoy!

For large scale synoptic events, I start monitoring trends after 24 hrs. It’s bread and butter is inside 12 hrs. Convection is a whole different story, but thankfully this isn’t convectively driven. It’s fun to look at now, but I’m very certain it’ll change. But man would it be sweet if it were right right now…..

Yup! Great call for up there. You guys should have fantastic ratios (11:1 or better) for the entire event. It’s going to be a winter wonderland around the region and I for one am here for it!

I have to come visit your area at some point! I haven’t been to Ski Liberty in like 15-20 years. It’s beautiful up there