MillvilleWx

I’m actually going to be due east to Martinsburg by about 6 miles or so east of Martinsburg in the hills outside the interstate. This area may just stay all snow, but it will be close! I’m excited because a snow storm with friends is so much fun. We are planning a menu for food and cocktails too. It’ll be a great time. Let’s bring this one home!

Thanks! I wanted to put on my meteorologist hat for that one. Now back to my regularly scheduled snow weenieing

That was an interesting shift from what it had been saying. I like the WV Panhandle for this one. You’ll get a nice glimpse of life out there in these scenarios. Like to hold on longer for snow and WAA regimes usually come in hot and heavy. Enjoy!!

I know everyone loves the GFS, but currently it is not in-line with a majority of the guidance, so if I was on the desk, I’d be doing a forecast that was non-GFS based. Current model diagnostic would be a compromise of EC/ECENS/AIFS with short term Nam Nest thermals through hour 48. Still not in range of the Nest yet, but that will be the model to watch starting the afternoon runs tomorrow, moving forward. Below are some positive and negative takeaways with this current setup. Positives: 1) The QPF will be prolific (>1” area wide) and much of it will actually fall in the form of snow from the initial WAA scheme that will materialize Saturday night through Sunday morning. 2) A solid 8-12 hrs, minimum for heavy snowfall with rates between 1-2”/hr likely with a few bands likely to exceed 2”/hr within the best banding structures during the WAA pattern. These will align west-east or wsw-ene to align with the approaching 7H FGEN and lesser extent 85H FGEN. 3) IT WILL BE COLD!!! Unless you are on the eastern shore to perhaps the longitude of Cambridge, you will stay below freezing. NBM temps are teens to low 20s for a vast majority of the sub during the entirety of the event. This is a very prolific cold wedge and it’s evident it will be present at surface and really holds firm even at 925mb. Any precip that does fall will likely be icy in nature for the majority of the subforum, but ZR potential will be possible east of the Bay, and especially for southern VA towards the Northern Neck of the Tidewater. Negatives: 1) A large majority of us will likely mix AT SOME POINT. Yes, even to the M/D is plausible, but the further north and west you are from the Fall line (I-95 proxy), you will stay snow longer. There will probably be a small area that stays all snow and that will likely be where the jackpot occurs or is one of the two maxima. Sleet will be the secondary precip type after any changeover as the warm nose is typically shallow, between 800-700mb, but could push closer to +2/3+° C for areas south of I-66. The tongue will be less pronounced further north, so rate dependence will be interesting to see if evaporational cooling can mix out the warm layer at times and cause the sleet line to oscillate, which is customary with these setups. 2) Post storm cold will be brutal. Absolutely BRUTAL!! Highs will struggle for many days to get above 26°, let alone get to freezing. This stuff is not going anywhere. It will freeze solid by Tuesday morning. We joke about building a glacier, but that’s what’s going to happen here. Be prepared for longevity in this. 3) Significant to even crippling ice storm likely for far Southwest VA across the NC/VA line to near the Tidewater. Ice accretion of >1” is possible in that entire corridor and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 1.25-1.5” radial ice accums present in that zone. Temps will struggle to break beyond 28° leading to efficient ice accretion processes which will accumulate on everything. Some snow and sleet can offset the impact initially, but it’s apparent that this is going to happen. Please be prepared if you live down there. It will be one to remember imo. I’ll have a forecast tomorrow. Right now, still gauging things, but a major winter storm is coming and it will be a doozy for many. Historic aspects will be the cold and longevity of it all, plus the ice. MECS for sure. Appreciate all the contributions we’ve had leading in. I’ll be around through the event.

It’ll be latitudinally dependent. The protrusion of the warm nose will have less depth and less opportunity the further north and west you go in the grand scheme. Rate dependent mixing of cooler air aloft will also be at play, so the advancement of the mixing line will have a multitude of variables at play. I think along and south of I-70 mixes no matter what. North and west of there is the question mark. It will be a fight for those zones.

@MountainGeek @clskinsfan @Wxtrix @DDweatherman Appreciate all the responses from my little inquiry on hosting me out towards your area, or helping with designating where to stay if I were to chase out that direction. Looks like some friends of mine out by Martinsburg said they would love to host me, so I think that’s the route that I’ll end up going. I’ll confer later today, but again, I appreciate the responses and warm welcome (Clskinfan) to your home. Should be a fun storm with a heck of a front end thump, at the very least for your areas. Enjoy!!

Oh man, are they in for a treat! You are in an excellent spot too for this one. Any good places to stay around your parts by chance? I am really looking into a chase out in that direction.

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?

The N/S will be sampled better by tomorrow as it exits the Arctic regions and comes into more favorable RAOB domain. That said, models are probably still on the right track right now, but a small shift is still plausible once that is alignment with better land data captures. As for the oceanic recons, reading into some responses from the flight members and they said it’s not a magic pill right now for immediate change, but more data collection over the coming 24 hrs will add more to the general picture in the future ingests, so it’s a steady assistance prior to the S/W making “landfall” over Baja.

UKMet continuing to show my idea of where the heaviest snow will lie. That corridor along the M/D is gonna get shelled. The WV Panhandle and Northern Neck of VA west of the Potomac is also looking excellent. This is going to be a fun storm when it materializes. Also, I put in an inquiry in the Banter thread if anyone is interested

Okay, I have a serious inquiry. I am looking to do a chase and post up somewhere where the snow will be the heaviest and maintain itself through the storm cycle. If anyone is interested, please shoot me a PM and we can chat. I am looking for hotels and where is the best spot to do this. We can talk more in PM. If there is a small group of us, we can discuss via text message. I am off till next Thursday evening, so I am wide open to plan and everything. I want to go where we are gonna get a beat down. If someone has a 4x4, that would be spectacular!

The certainly will add more definition to the banding aspects of the storm, but even those can shift around up to the immediate term. HRRR can be useful inside 8 hrs and check how it is handling the situation. I’m waiting to see the thermals on the NAM Nest for this one. That is the model that should help pin point advancement of the warm layers and everything. CAMs will be helpful, but we are a ways from that. For now, putting a lot of stock in EC, ECENS, AIFS, NBM, and some GFS/CMC mixed in.

I keep telling you guys….that front end thump is gonna mean BUSINESS

That is indeed my old stomping grounds. I think the valley will do well in this one. This is a good setup for you guys out by Rt15!

Fall line climo will likely come into play with this one. One things for sure, it’s a QPF bomb. I’m really serious when I say areas that stay all snow will likely see 15-20” and could even get close to 2’. Best spots right now I would put across the M/D with the eastern most area near @mappy and as far north as Harrisburg. Southern edge for that potential is probably the Parrs Ridge zone down Rt27 towards Damascus/Mt Airy and points northwest. Map below is prelim thoughts and NOT my official forecast. Just an outline of thoughts right now. If you are northwest of the red line, I believe you’ll see 10+”, if you are inside the purple, I believe 12-18” is a good forecast right now. Elevations above 800’ have best chance to see 15-20”. Local maxima of 23” is the initial thought. Note, this is manly for this subforum and some of PA. I didn’t try too hard for areas outside the sub, but I will for full forecast.

Somewhere between I-70 and the M/D will be the sleet line. And it won’t be prolonged for any particular area near it. I think if you’re south of I-70, I would expect some sleet, but not before a pretty damn good WAA thump. Places that stay all snow will have a shot at 15-20” with this one.

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). Thanks

I will personally answer any questions and quoted messages to me from the other section when I get the chance. Busy right now. Will answer a little later, so apologies. Thanks for starting a new section @mappy!!

I’m genuinely concerned now for your area. This could be really ugly. I know you know the at anytime temp is <28° during ZR, accretion processes are maximized. <25° is usually when you see the greatest ice storms occur and it could very well be that way over your area back into VA.

It’s not hyperbole when I say this will be one of the extreme cold plunges we have seen since 2014 in these parts. With snow and ice on the ground will make travel issues for days on end. I’m bullish and think some places will see 18-22” of snow somewhere out of this, it’s just a matter of where. I expect it to occur in Northern MD by your hood across the M/D. Someone is going to get shelled.

I like Louis as a person and as a winter mind, but I think he needs to lay off the hard liquor. There isn’t a single model that is that route and there won’t be. Not sure why he said that. Need a full phase over the Four Corners for that.

Looking at everything, I think some here are really hung up on the sleet mixing and not enough on the absolute drubbing that WAA pattern is going to bring for the thump up front. This is a setup that can rival the Feb 2014 thump in places. The initial 4hrs when snow becomes heavy too will be big beautiful dendrites in the stronger bands. 1-2”/hr rates likely with some bands >2”/hr considering the strength and depth of the FGEN and DGZ, respectively. If you can remember 2014, there was 2’ of snow in Mt. Airy and not a single model showed that until it basically on top of us. Use climo, know your area for who usually hangs on to snow the longest. This will be a crazy beatdown prior to any flip. Lowlands will mix, metros will mix, eastern shore will mix, and mix will likely make it to I-70….it is what it is. It’s the nature of an upper pattern closing off west of where we want it. However, the snow will come in hot and heavy and last for a while to bring in some great totals, the biggest of which some have seen in a decade. Thermals will be situated as we get into Friday and the NAM Nest comes into line. That’s the model I want to see. That piece of guidance usually sucks, but it does do well at showing the thermal progression while sucking otherwise. It’s gonna snow y’all!! As for Southwest VA, it sucks this shift happened so abruptly. I wasn’t anticipating THIS much of a shift, but there will be some heavy heavy snow upfront before driving sleet. It will be a high impact scenario for so many. And the cold afterwards is NO JOKE!! This isn’t going anywhere.

It’s wild out there. A completely different world. I want the front end thump to be like what the models show tonight. That will produce some insane dendrites and walls of white for a while.

You know who is going to absolutely clean up on this setup? @jonjon I’ve been noticing the wind pattern with this one out there. Davis might hit 30” with this one.

I would wait for sure, but it could be pretty difficult on Monday morning. Still some time to keep an eye on things.