MillvilleWx

Nah, they are getting obliterated. Family west of Rehoboth is over 6” and just getting crushed with 1+”/hr rates. DE will do just fine with this one.

Man, the deformation axis over the eastern shore is going to be WILD. 2-3”/hr rates in some of these at this point. Got a nice coastal front signature near Fenwick and the MD/DE border at the coast. Incredible

The model ratio on the NBM is too high and it’s overshooting the QPF. Unless I’m completely missing something (plausible), this will be overdone west of the bay outside the norlun, which you can see is absent from this output because it’s a blend.

Hey there! Not sure how those graphics are created, but those outputs are actually all models (This case it’s the HRRR) so it’s not the current representation surface analysis. It’s just a fancy way of model projection on the website. Pretty cool

32° in Edgewater Moderate snow with it accumulating on everything but the roads so far, although they are starting to get slushy.

I have no idea what they are doing. I lowered your totals on the WPC end. I'm missing something, or they are messing up something.

Hanging out with Tony Montana?

That's actually a good spot for our area. The issues don't arise until later when it gets kicked east-northeast. If it were to move northeast from there, or north-northeast like it has been, we would be in decent shape, but looks like it'll move away after is slows/stalls for 2-4 hrs. as the ULL maturation captures it. I think something is causing it to kick which I would need to look into. Is what it is. Still an incredible storm to watch unfold.

SPC mesoanalysis page 850mb winds (Version 2) is pretty nice. You can see some of the convergent winds over PA down into NoVA. That's a good indicator. Also watch the radar from PA down into MD/VA for localized reflectivity maxima orienting into a line. That's a good indication it's starting.

It's going to be close!! You are close enough to absolutely monitor. Like I said, this is so nowcast with that thing, but we'll know in a few hrs. where it will be.

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger.

I think I'll just come out and say the nowcasting trends of the expected upper level behavior will probably lead to a lower end of any accumulation range for areas west of the Bay, expect those under the norlun trough. I think even I will get about 4-5" or so just west of the Bay. Eastern shore still looks ripe. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing a favorable 5H progression for prolonged snow here. The jog east-northeast of the SLP once it gets to the latitude of DE is basically on all guidance now. Unless that changes, probably going to be tough to reach >6" for anywhere west the western shore of the Bay. Northeast MD, Eastern Shore, and points northeast should still do well enough. I'm going to enjoy whatever I get.

Trough is tilting negative currently, so we'll see the 500mb heights probably close off over VA within the next 2-4hrs.

My parents just sent me videos. It is absolutely PUKING snow there right now. Everything is covered and accumulating efficiently. The Lower Slower DE is about to see some potentially historic snowfall from this one. 10+ is all but a lock.

It's actually more of a product of the best is yet to come, but heaviest rates are over the eastern shore right now due to a strong 7H FGEN alignment and closer fetch off the Atlantic. We are in a traditional Miller B where the moisture transport is likely to be weak from southern stream influences outside what occurred this morning from a lead wave that was ripping ahead of the mean trough. This is going as planned, and unfortunately, the proxy of the low and general timing of when the 5H pattern is expected to close off and pass under us will benefit those further east and northeast and only offer a small consolation prize (outside the norlun trough). Was hoping the 5H pattern closed sooner which would've helped us a ton, but the 06z runs last night kind of started the very slow bleed the wrong way in that regard and it's basically going to be a "just missed" scenario for a bigger storm, but we still get some snow out of it, which we can't say for all Miller B's.

I never buy the NAM for any reason. NAMNest thermals and sometimes the QPF, but otherwise, the 12km parent I ignore almost exclusively.

It's not yet at that latitude. Won't start appearing for another 3-4 hrs. It's somewhat visible into west-central PA right now, but the dynamics aren't there yet for down this way.

Video from parents shows everything is covered and roads are caving it’s coming down so hard. Absolutely massive flakes. This is going to be a special storm for the Southern DE.

Seaford is not going to mix. I'd go if I had the chance!

Ahhh, I read into your comment incorrectly. No worries!

Snowing at my parents place west of Rehoboth. Massive flakes and sticking to the grass and tables outside.

The wetbulb temp for Frederick is right at freezing and I would not expect the valley to get any accumulation until after sunset. Storm is really just getting started.

I'm going to be totally honest with you...I have no clue how you managed to pull that off!! Potentially rates and you just happen to be better off? I'd take my money and run!!!

Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here

Fair question, and tbh, that's a question for the Sterling WFO. WPC actually does our own snow forecast and we've been lower than they have for this one for our neck of the woods. I have had you around 6-9" when I forecasted last 3 days. We coordinate on things, but the end of the day, the snowfall forecasts are the WFO's for their respective CWA's and they can refer to ours for cohesiveness. You put 10 meteorologists into a room and you'll get 11 forecasts. It's been a tough one outside NJ/LI/Mass since they are getting creamed no matter what. Btw, we have between 0.5-0.6" for your area after the flip with ~6-6.5" of snow accumulation, so could very well hit the lower half of the forecast, but probably a safer forecast with 4-8" for your hood. That's just my 2cents. Hopefully we get hit good for 4-6 hrs before things wind down. Going to be really nice dendrites with this one.