pasnownut

Next up - its the Germans to keep hope alive.

yep that was NAM's vs the rest if memory served. Coup scored.

Extrapolate please

@66 hrs, 12z NAM looks a lot like 6z Euro at surface

This is a very fair point. 72 + hours is still enough time for some wiggle in the modeling, especially as the players enter the field (conus) tomorrow night and models hone in on what n where things are, and where they are headed. Fortunately there's been enough continuity for last couple days that the goalposts are becoming a bit better defined, and should start to narrow. We currently are on the inside - center left post, and hopefully stay inside. IF we can survive today full set of runs (including tonights 0z's, I'd think we'll be alright. If we end up back in the 6+ and not 16" range, its still a win.

im sure it'll take a bit of time, but w/ the amount of moisture headed this way, i'd think not much qpf would be "wasted".

Its a rarety when we get to look at Kuch and actually believe the numbers may be a close reflection of OTG totals.

fortunately its a light and fluffy snow that we'll be dealing w/, but 12+ of any snow can become a factor. Hopeful that as the cones narrow (and we look to be squarely in them) that peeps listen and prepare for potential loss of heat/power. I'm telling everyone I can to get grill food ready and make sure propane is filled....just in case. I may have to sit at my desk for a while. Looking at the overnighters has me looking like a 16yr old lookin at playboys. Pants tent for sure. This is so fun.....LOVE it. Lets enjoy boys n girls.

Here in northern lanco (last weekend jackpot for LSV events) I saw -6, 2 miles from my house this morning, but as I headed west twds Etown, 2-5 was the range I saw.

Ask and you shall receive. Overnighter and 6z's are a thing of beauty.

HH Euro is all but a statewide WSW level event. Been a minute since I can say we've had that potential.

at 15:1 you got 10" to turn that frown upside down. Hope it holds for you.

Fortunately the lowest scoring GFS is the only one saying this. CMC/ICON and Euro say otherwise, so there's that. Looking at 500's on GFS vs its twin big brothers, GEFS/GEPS both look better w/ trough axis, so would probably argue against what their little brother is spittin out. Me thinks anyway.

Looking back over the nooners (so far), GFS is a southern outlier because its a strung out mess. CMC/ICON much more consolidated with nice qpf distributio and while slower in progression are much cleaner in evolution. Does that mean they are right....dunno, but that's my take.

Little too early to be in the bullseye, so buyer beware. Pattern is a more stable one, but with a slightly slower ejection out of the SW, it makes me nervous at 5 days out. If it were 2 days out, i'd feel a bit better. Something to consider as we move forward.