pasnownut

yikes. hope you feel better soon

Yeah one thing that has been consistent is the cold pool in the east. As arctic boundary retreats its going to warm, but we've been cold for some time, and I wonder how much staying power it will have. Model depending, 850s show SW flow only one or two periods in the next 7-10days, and arctic boundary while north, is still close enough to do its thing, and not cook us. My goal is to keep snow cover as long as possible, and I think into mid next week, it should be bye and large safe, but slowly dwindling. Walked on my frozen tundra last evening getting wood, and man, it is stoudt.

As I've been curious lately about how we seem to have muted warmups (winter to date, not including next week), I just looked at Akron and Etown zips on NWS climo data for this week and neither location got to 40 for the last 3 days (which was our "warmup" that was being touted from last week. Next week, I'm sure I'll be trolled to oblivion and beyond when we hit 50 (and I think we have a couple chances at it.) Not sure how many days our sub 40 stretch has been, but for me, it's been enjoyable. No matter, springs gonna b springin soon enough.

Looked at ens guidance and next week looks like our thaw, but many show 30s n 40's for much of period. I'm sure a day or 2 might tickle the 50. Just a boring stretch incoming. Twds the end, it looks like we get some colder air back but not a big signal. Just boring. long term -pna/+nao/+ao says coldest favored west. Its not a close the shades look, but not a good one either.

overnighters have us on the northern edge of precip, and several have short period of snow here. Still think it comes further north.

south trend seems to have gained traction today. no NS/SS interaction and it just scoots due east ish. Stll think a norther correction happens but not sure if and how much. Gonna say i'm a bit baffled as to what I'm seeing.

couple flurries on way home from office. digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron. Never budged.

In full transparency, I shouldve added that ICON went notably south. that has me scratchin my head. Cold dome is relaxing...unless it isn't. Huh

I dont go to other forums often at all, but hoping he gets the memo soon.

antecedent cold is not stoudt, so we may need column to cool dynamically (ala Euro), but thats more of an outlier IMO. I think thermally we'll be i trouble down here, but as currently depicted would get some front end prior to losing thermals. I personally can see this going norther and what I just suggested could be an issue into central Pa (assuming north trend continues). I'm glad to see the storm no matter. We need it. Beyond that, next week looks redundant of this week. No big torch, and some cool days sprinkled in (sorta normalish see saw stuff.)

Hang in there pal. Just a newbie that needs to figure out how things roll in here.

CMC still holing steady wrt weekend potential

nooner GFS continues to tick N (slp and qpf field). Not a snowy look, but definitely would not write off the storm at all.

I was going to type something along the lines of what TT just did to offer up some suggestions to reduce the amount of trolling you receive. He's not wrong. Saying things like you do without offering a snippet of info as to why YOU think it may "not happen" is a good way to muck up the board and get trolled. Post what you feel...and why you feel it. It's ok to be wrong in here....but sometimes your right and maybe we learn from each other. That's what this board is supposed to be right? A disco thread. Carry on.

just went over to ready CTP's disco, and I'm gonna say, that it was rather reasonable. they threw in some snippets about using old forecaster rule of thumb about betting against something that has yet to hit the west coast and ens guidance suggesting otherwise/norther solutions not being dismissed yet. Thats reasonable and what many of us old weenies use as baselines for most events (when in med/long term) model watching.