pasnownut

trough axis too far east. Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture. IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.

not diggin nooners. No fork out yet, but cold press seems to overwhelm the east, and keeps this deal too far east. VA/NC beaches approve.

Here we go boys n girls. Lets hope today is better than last night. RGEM coming in a little more tucked from 6z. Not gonna extrapolate, but not gonna say i hate the look. challenge is right where it is, is where it meets "the wall". Hoping today offers a bit more clarity to the exit stage right dilemna. Might not be till tomorrow though.

Yeah, while we missed the big accums, the density from the sleet and little bit of zr has made our lesser snowpack rather dense. Aint goin nowhere for a good while.

Yeah I only saw 5. Was expectin neg digis.

Icon still doin its own thingy at 84. 500's similar, but surface notsomuch

and looking at 18z gfs 500s at same timeframe, extremely close in presentation. me likey...

500s at 84 were notably better and digging for gold....white gold (but thats me extrapolating). BIG difference from 18z Gonna try to stay up for GFS to see if its the lead dog or not. I may be rather tired by this weekend, but man this is fun.

not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy.

Like him or not he's 100% correct.

totally agree. poor or late phase, its pure fish food. Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us)

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look.

Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS??

Good catch. nooner was 3 contour closed at 500, and now 5 countour for HH. That just made my HH a whole lot happier. Much better phasing on ens.