pasnownut

GFS just not wanting to come around (or is it scoring a coup). Shows a late transfer (after much has fallen), which is likely a byproduct of AO/NAO helping to suppress a bit (but not enough verbatim). Blizz, hoping your Euro is back on the rails and takes us where we wanna go.

12 NAM extrapolated (dangerous... I know), would suggest to me that this would belly under a 1035 HP that seems to be somewhat anchored in a decent spot up north. Rolled foreward, youd think CAD feature SHOULD help around here. Hmmm

Yeah I know they did some incremental upgrades, but didnt really look into what that entailed. Yeah, hoping the NAM can give us some better looks in the next couple days. One thing I will stand on, is that based on tellies, it argues AGAINST what the GFS shows regarding all of the cutter looks here in the east, so lets hope it comes around.

Its not too far from the CMC, but yeah w/ the Euro notably different, its going to be fun to see how this works out. Having ENS support makes me a tad nervous tho. 6Z for Fri/Sat looked close at 500mb. Was hoping that wouldnt be the case. With PNA headed twds neutral, I'd think a less ridgy look here in the east would start to show up as NAO/AO are solidly negative and you'd think would promote fatter solutions here in the east. Dunno.

Maybe it's just me, but if memory serves, the Euro struggled at times last season. I know weenie rule #1 is likely in play here, but keep that in mind. I dont like what the GFS is advertising, but I'm not sure we should ignore it.

Yeah, the GFS doesnt seem to by latching onto other camps and 6z has gone further west for next weekend, and really doesnt want to play. CMC although west, has would would appear to be front end kinda deal (lacking sufficient cold) and verbatim, not sure I'm buying what that canook model is selling, but hey its snow...even if digital. Will be interesting to see how the next couple of days play out model wise. FWIW, the GFS ENS are rather close to the Op, so this may be a battle model wise.

Nooner GFS Ens quite divergent at 500's as we get closer to 8-10 days out, so that tells me that one of them might be catching on....and one of them is clueless. Unfortunately looking at the Op only adds another solution, and no real consensus IMO. Buckle up boys n girls....next few days may be a roller coaster of possibilities (and emotions for some). Oof.

Hey buddy boy...you can sign a bunch of us up for that to verify. Some of us are just trying to temper optimism as things are really just starting to get underway. 6z showed a step in the right direction. GFS ensembles are looking sexy the further out it goes. Just need to get through next week and we should be trackin legit threats w/ less worry.

You arent alone, but as you stated, its only 12/1. IF this pattern comes to light, the timing couldnt be better to get us all in some festive moods. HH is underway, so you may get teased shortly.

if what is being advertised in the next coupe weeks comes to light, yeah i'd think some fun happy hours may be forthcoming. I think I read that Mag suggsted a suppression worry, but also a potential for flatter zonal look. IF PNA stays neutral, look out for bowling balls and a conveyor belt of chances to start showing, and as the magic blue line gets in a better spot for some/many of us thanks to AO/NAO, it could be a nice period. Hoping that the indicies hold a bit and arent brief, as the window of op would be lessened.

just a little divergence and why Op runs post 240 should be taken w/ a large grain of salt IMO. GEPS verbatim "fits the pattern" if tellies are close to correct. And remember, you gotta get the the 500mb pattern right before worrying about lower levels. Literally a top down approach (for me anyway).

Like him or not, one of the greats of LR forecasting (yes Bastardi) often reminded us that a model run "must fit the pattern". That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades and makes a ton of sense. That said....this run doesnt really fit. NAO/AO solidly neg, w/ PNA still slightly neg (around that timestamp), would not show such ridging out west, and would be notably more supressed in the east, and likely wouldnt show a cutter. Not parsing over details yet, cause at 252, the details are fuzzy at best, but thats a 10,000 ft view from my noggin.

only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what. Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days.

Good luck w/ the thread Blizz. It feels like winter today so nice start. Keep up the good work.

my pal came home from northern Lyco yesterday and said we could have logged miles in on the pipelines up there....yes...on Tuesday. 4ish inches still otg (Pine hill summit for the doubters). Many cams still were showing some yesterday as well.

Not sure of the implications, but loop the 48 hr 500's on GFS. just from 24 hrs ago to latest. Not sure if that helps suppress the weekend mess at all, but it beats the hell out of what yesterday was showing at this time w/ ridging right up to canook land. Also appears to be holding back in the SW (like the Euro was so good at)

Words NEVER more true....

I just posted the 12/3 timeframe to show the different looks being advertised. Here was my "worry" about the LR looks on the ens. but to your point, they do look better as we go further out in time. Hoping the tellies improve the look as we get closer. Surely better than a shut the shades look no doubt.

check out GFS ens. i posted them a bit ago. I hope the king is back. AO and NAO both look to be negative around the time you posted, so it adds some confidence that the window may be opening around that time. PNA heading + as well, so that would promote ridging (or at least less chances of troughiness in the west). From my view, MJO looks to be low amplitude 8/1 around that time frame, That said, nothing hostile about tellies IMO. (Mind you thats just my take, and I dont know if any experts agree. Maybe @MAG5035 (or anyone that has better insight) can step in to tell us what they think.

for convo purposes... GEFS. not terrible, but WAR still hanging on down south GEPS fugetaboutit WAR wins the war.

I was lookin at Op run when I said that. see below. Oops. at same timestamp as you posted, GFS ens diverge, and GEFS is similar to Euro, but GEPS looks notsogood

Im hoping that block can get a bit further west (as well as that ridge out W ). E based NAO ok, but pull that puppy west a bit more and I think we'd like that look. I know I'll sign. Until then....nothing anomalous is fine by me. As you stated, prime time is still to come.

23 at the casa this am, and 10 miles west...35. Sounds like a warm day on tap as soon as the remaining pockets of cold get scoured out. Happy Turkey Eve. See you at the bar tonight (supposedly the biggest drinking day of the year - or sumthin like that).

yeah, just looked and etwown joined in the party.

lol and thanks. And thats all it is...analysis on a disco board, that many of us like to chirp our thoughts on things...wright or wrong, but ya know...there's one knowitall on every forum.