pasnownut

I do and i am. hehe

Yeah nooners (sans GFS) were a touch better, which give me the confidence in thinking we are going to see something, but there is enough that are not showing much more than some light snow, and with seasonal tendencies in mind, progressive and too far east when winding up have been the theme for this winter. With spring approaching, it is a time where we can buck the trends though. not saying thats evident here, but something I keep in my mental notebook of how we can snow in late season.

and just like that the Euro stays open and more progressive looking. Still has something, but in the spirit of the Olympics, its def the US vs Euro. Gut says GFS caves a bit, and we still see snow. Good enough for me.

my "confidence" is that the storm isnt going poof and trending towards something. That is all I'm confident about. Not for a second do I think the GFS is going to score a coup, and I dont think my wording suggested that, but GFS is liking a tucked storm, and other models have trended a bit sharper w/ trough axis as well as ticked W a bit. doing a nooner WMB (Weenie Model Blend) suggests that a light/mod event is surely in play, (norlun or no norlun) for many Eastern pa folks.

last norlun i can remember put 7" on my house, while 10 miles away it was 1" at a friends. They are a rarity, but fun if you get in it.

plenty of time for that to happen.... or not. lol with other models coming back around to the storm idea, at least that consensus is forming in a favorable way. pretty wide goalposts tho and we are on the far left side. Starting to feel like a plowable event is looking like a good possibility.

AI GooFuS sharper more neg tilted and slightly W of 6z for money panels. Other lesser storm models have not trended against us, so small wins if you want snow. PLENTY of time for this to go gooder/bader, but I'm cool w/ where we are right now.

If the Euro trends twds something better with spacing, we might be onto a nice event for many. CMC is like a fish flappin outta water. Was hoping it would not buck the trends. ICON is a bit better but nowhere close to GFS evolution and is sorta in euro camp

NAM was king in 2016. GFS wants the crown in 2026

Man if every i wanted to believe in the GFS, this run is it. It's a DOOZY w/ 12+ for SE Pa

Or go look at nooner GFS. Beatdown incoming.

My oldish bones said the same thing the last 2 days. They prefer 20 crisp n clear vs 35-37 damp dreary. guess i do still like the cold more than I thought.

have you looded at cmc/euro/ens? Not sure I'm feeling the same as you. GFS might be BEST, case scenario, but plenty of other guidance showing a decent event. We've all done this long enough to not focus on best case, as odds are extremely low of it verifying, but consensus suggests were getting a modest event sunday.

I'm just happy to see that we have a chance, and that while not a lock, it surely is something that could pad stats and get trainer to give our region the A grade that we have wanted for a long time. CMC was a notable step back twds something appreciable. With so much energy/vorts to sort, I'd imagine we still have a day or 2 of notable swings/misses to sort out until players take the field (conus).

nooner GFS keeps hope alive. ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.

Yes, this year sure has bucked the typical norther trends. last weeks "event" came slightly north and we went from nothing to fringed. Seasonal tendency does not show up on tellies or factor into algorithms, so while the last 24 hrs hasn't been trends we want to see, as Mag suggested, you gotta look at 500's first before figuring out how the lower levels are gonna look. That said, there is a lot of sorting to do. Was really hoping the earlier phase was going to work out, but Friday's deal is screwin the snow pooch and not giving time/spacing to dive in, keeping the flow more progressive.

oh ok. Thought it the other way around. i figured you stat guys could keep me straight.

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza? me thinks Euro played catch up. GFS was sniffin early

After the morning I've had, if I can....you can. suckitupbuttercup

this is what I want to see.... On monday morning. Till then...just perty colors IMBY

like you/others stated, long way to go here, and while the nooners look good, as antecedent cold is not stoudt, yeah, nails gonna b bitten down here (assuming GFS has a clue....)

40/70 is lat/lon for "benchmark" for classic noreasters/snowstorm signal. Verbatim map you shared was 200miles wsw of that location. That is called "tucked". Since you new, take notes....too old to have to repeat myself

benchmark is 40/70 lat/lon. this is notably W by about 200 miles thats a legit worry for you and I

yes SSW was to be peturbed, and if so, would not show up at lower levels (lag time). MJO wasnt horribile looking but NAO was going notably + and trough west often means ridge east. Hoping things sort out a bit better moving forward. this weekend looks rather nice.