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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    all part of the fun. I'm not here to be right....just here for the fun. I'm 1 beer and a couple cocktails in myself. School night, but I'm sayin F'it and havin a little fun. Cheers
  2. pasnownut
    Cant argue that, but I think you get my point that i was making. It'd be the 8th wonder of the modern world if ALL guidance bows to the GFS. Thats what i was gettin at. Like i said earlier today, NAM did it in 2016. Maybe this is the GFS's turn to rule the roost for one.
  3. pasnownut
    Yeah looking at that tight cluster one would think 0z would surely come W.
  4. pasnownut
    It's definately coming around.
  5. pasnownut
    just toggled through the panels, and yeah, it started off the 0z's in a better way. Hoping the rest of them keep the welcome trends, but gut says GFS ticks east soon. Time for some narrowing of the goalposts, as we are inside 3 days and nearing short term. Lets hope for some good stuff tonight.
  6. pasnownut
    saw that earlier. What a year for modelwatchin
  7. pasnownut
    Or just stop traveling so damn much in winter and sit back, pour a cold one and enjoy the friggin snow. just a thought.
  8. pasnownut
    saw the maps, and after rereading your post a few time to take in the anomalous nature of your statement, it looks like GFS might be lead dog in this race.
  9. pasnownut
    18z euro and 0z nam starting to cave to GFS look. Not sure they concede fully, but a compromise is still a win for the GFS if the trends continue. IF the GFS pulls off even a partial win, it will just make model watchin all the more "interesting" moving forward. Read somewhere that the GFS gets a big update later this year. I think I was lookin at MA thread for some comic relief.
  10. pasnownut
    I do and i am. hehe
  11. pasnownut
    Yeah nooners (sans GFS) were a touch better, which give me the confidence in thinking we are going to see something, but there is enough that are not showing much more than some light snow, and with seasonal tendencies in mind, progressive and too far east when winding up have been the theme for this winter. With spring approaching, it is a time where we can buck the trends though. not saying thats evident here, but something I keep in my mental notebook of how we can snow in late season.
  12. pasnownut
    and just like that the Euro stays open and more progressive looking. Still has something, but in the spirit of the Olympics, its def the US vs Euro. Gut says GFS caves a bit, and we still see snow. Good enough for me.
  13. pasnownut
    my "confidence" is that the storm isnt going poof and trending towards something. That is all I'm confident about. Not for a second do I think the GFS is going to score a coup, and I dont think my wording suggested that, but GFS is liking a tucked storm, and other models have trended a bit sharper w/ trough axis as well as ticked W a bit. doing a nooner WMB (Weenie Model Blend) suggests that a light/mod event is surely in play, (norlun or no norlun) for many Eastern pa folks.
  14. pasnownut
    last norlun i can remember put 7" on my house, while 10 miles away it was 1" at a friends. They are a rarity, but fun if you get in it.
  15. pasnownut
    plenty of time for that to happen.... or not. lol with other models coming back around to the storm idea, at least that consensus is forming in a favorable way. pretty wide goalposts tho and we are on the far left side. Starting to feel like a plowable event is looking like a good possibility.
  16. pasnownut
    AI GooFuS sharper more neg tilted and slightly W of 6z for money panels. Other lesser storm models have not trended against us, so small wins if you want snow. PLENTY of time for this to go gooder/bader, but I'm cool w/ where we are right now.
  17. pasnownut
  18. pasnownut
    If the Euro trends twds something better with spacing, we might be onto a nice event for many. CMC is like a fish flappin outta water. Was hoping it would not buck the trends. ICON is a bit better but nowhere close to GFS evolution and is sorta in euro camp
  19. pasnownut
    NAM was king in 2016. GFS wants the crown in 2026
  20. pasnownut
    Man if every i wanted to believe in the GFS, this run is it. It's a DOOZY w/ 12+ for SE Pa
  21. pasnownut
    Or go look at nooner GFS. Beatdown incoming.
  22. pasnownut
    My oldish bones said the same thing the last 2 days. They prefer 20 crisp n clear vs 35-37 damp dreary. guess i do still like the cold more than I thought.
  23. pasnownut
    have you looded at cmc/euro/ens? Not sure I'm feeling the same as you. GFS might be BEST, case scenario, but plenty of other guidance showing a decent event. We've all done this long enough to not focus on best case, as odds are extremely low of it verifying, but consensus suggests were getting a modest event sunday.
  24. pasnownut
    I'm just happy to see that we have a chance, and that while not a lock, it surely is something that could pad stats and get trainer to give our region the A grade that we have wanted for a long time. CMC was a notable step back twds something appreciable. With so much energy/vorts to sort, I'd imagine we still have a day or 2 of notable swings/misses to sort out until players take the field (conus).
  25. pasnownut
    nooner GFS keeps hope alive. ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.
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