pasnownut

found this read interesting from CTP afternoon disco KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy snow and moderate to major winter storm impacts across central PA this weekend. As is often the case, the primary model uncertainty differences center around the interaction between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream which will ultimately steer the storm track and associated placement of winter wx/max snowfall. Latest models have doubled-down on the northward trend that was very evident in the previous 21/00Z model cycle. Big ? remains will that trend hold or will there be a reversion back to the south. What we know at this juncture: 1. Ptype should be all snow as arctic air remains locked in place 2. Most likely timing for heavy snow is Saturday night through Sunday night 3. Odds of >6" and >12" of snow have trended higher (maximized over south central/southeast PA) with an increasing risk for moderate to major winter storm impacts this weekend What we don`t know yet: 1. Exactly when, where and how much snow will fall

my point was that it's NOT going to cut. Strung out and less amped means not cutting west of us.

I guess the summary for HH GFS.... not gonna cut it

gfs less consolidated/strung out and suppressed

as event approaches, its running into a 1042mb H, and while it does get nudged NE, antecedent cold coupled w/ that should hold ground for most of the duration. If it ends as sleet...fine, thats just a snowpack densifier.

some of our more notable events have a transfer just below M/D line, and like JB always said, for the best snows ya gotta smell the rain. While I dont feel well smell any rain, we may hear it...pinger style. I'm still hoping we can keep the progressive look w/ less WAA worries. Just a nice clean snow event...please n thx.

NAM's will be close to joining the party in a bit. Hoping they help and not hurt us.

and on behalf of the B string, some of us have shared that same point - this has a more progressive tilt that runs into heavy antecedent cold dome, so while taint is a possibility, this is the kind of event that being east of the apps insulates us from those worries. Now if that cutoff stalls and digs more in the future, well then I guess taint could make a run deeper into central Pa. if trough goes more neg tilt. Downer is what Mt Joy suggested, we went from suppressed to primary trying to cut, with 3 days to go. Like you said, CAD is stoudt and should do its thing. We hope.

Just went through Euro panels and basically same SLP with a touch more WAA west of apps, but much the same as 0z in the end. CAD is a thing of beauty and hopefully our keys to the snowy promise land.

I'm only out to 96 on pivotal....my waiting/wondering about the warm nose is over. I'll fast forward to where you are at and call it a win.

Ukie was a step back from 0z for sure. Had time to look it over. Camps forming Ukie/CMC vs IKON/GFS/EURO well at least some foreigners still agree w/ us.

Just looked at Ukie, and it too has a warm nose, so I'm guessing that's why it wasnt posted. We still have times for trends (good or bad), but Ukie still shows a nuke job w/ suffiecint CAD east of apps to not really get into a hissyfit....yet. 0z's tonight will be stressful w/ much gnashing of nails n teeth wating to see if its a trend....or a hiccup... hehe

and while he might find a way to be right in the end, I'm not sure what hes saying as GFS/Euro/ICON are similar in progression while the CMC is by itself. I just looked to make sure someone didnt spike my lemon water at lunch. Sorry but he's out to lunch on what was shared above. only one w/ sharper, more neg tilt is CMC. all others are pos tilt and progressive in nature (keeping SLP south and lessening chance of primary cutting). IF things slow down and cutoff happens, then he might be onto something. From my amateur view, things looked more consolidated and less separation.

You have Uke outputs?

He's warmingsta wishcasting..... I hope

Shouldnt you be chasing Minnie Mouse around right now??

thats what my hope is and why I shared the 700's as they show primary pressing right up into wva. it was also evident to a lesser degree on 0z run for CMC, so lets hope its not onto something. 700/850's look fine w/ critical thickness well S of M/D line. CAD feauture also very evident, so IF there was some credence to this solution, I'd think taint in in our hood would be sleet and no ice.

lol I also saw that, and chuckled.

Yep, I'm glad to see it came around. GFS/Icon look just fine. CMC a little less fine, but still as you state a great event. my worry is that we are still 72+ out and many outcomes gooder or badder are possible. Based on 700's you can easily see what the CMC was doing as it pops the primary and holds it too long. GFS doesnt show that. Icon also keeps a cleaner look w/ SLP well south.

the more dig on backside down in Texas early on is the culprit, and imo we need to root for that not to happen, and keep this a little more progressive for a clean event. Otherwise, taint word gets tossed in

togglin between majors, CMC trough axis notably more neutral tilt, and others more pos/progressive.

primary held onto 114 and screwed my pooch.

Verbatim CMC is a step back for southern PA, but central/northers highly approve.

and based on qpf, sleet on top....no bueno for power concerns shared by some earlier.

CMC solution is not what i expected. Still a great event, but not as clean. Sharper trough axis it shows is likely culprit. CAD is strong on ALL models, so I'd think if this would verify, itd be sleet below MD line Huhh