pasnownut

Started mixing w/ snow about 1 hour ago, and now light snow falling. Not stickin to anything other than existing snow. Blizz, it doesnt look like were done trackin yet. Glad to see we have a little more time. Heres to a good week and hopefully more chances. Next weekend sure does look like a good window of opportunity.

Not to me. I said it days ago. Wasnt understanding why this was stuck in the south. NAO lifting out says come north to me, and wasnt adding up for it to drift aimlessly due east. I am surprised it took so long for some majors to latch on, but I'm glad they are.

as stated many times before, you and I are like minded wrt our love of winter landscape and how sleet is the ultimate pack densifier. think we hold on till Tues/Wed then the landscape starts to change. What a run.

yikes. hope you feel better soon

Yeah one thing that has been consistent is the cold pool in the east. As arctic boundary retreats its going to warm, but we've been cold for some time, and I wonder how much staying power it will have. Model depending, 850s show SW flow only one or two periods in the next 7-10days, and arctic boundary while north, is still close enough to do its thing, and not cook us. My goal is to keep snow cover as long as possible, and I think into mid next week, it should be bye and large safe, but slowly dwindling. Walked on my frozen tundra last evening getting wood, and man, it is stoudt.

As I've been curious lately about how we seem to have muted warmups (winter to date, not including next week), I just looked at Akron and Etown zips on NWS climo data for this week and neither location got to 40 for the last 3 days (which was our "warmup" that was being touted from last week. Next week, I'm sure I'll be trolled to oblivion and beyond when we hit 50 (and I think we have a couple chances at it.) Not sure how many days our sub 40 stretch has been, but for me, it's been enjoyable. No matter, springs gonna b springin soon enough.

Looked at ens guidance and next week looks like our thaw, but many show 30s n 40's for much of period. I'm sure a day or 2 might tickle the 50. Just a boring stretch incoming. Twds the end, it looks like we get some colder air back but not a big signal. Just boring. long term -pna/+nao/+ao says coldest favored west. Its not a close the shades look, but not a good one either.

overnighters have us on the northern edge of precip, and several have short period of snow here. Still think it comes further north.

south trend seems to have gained traction today. no NS/SS interaction and it just scoots due east ish. Stll think a norther correction happens but not sure if and how much. Gonna say i'm a bit baffled as to what I'm seeing.

couple flurries on way home from office. digi thermo stuck on 37 whole way from etown to akron. Never budged.

In full transparency, I shouldve added that ICON went notably south. that has me scratchin my head. Cold dome is relaxing...unless it isn't. Huh

I dont go to other forums often at all, but hoping he gets the memo soon.

antecedent cold is not stoudt, so we may need column to cool dynamically (ala Euro), but thats more of an outlier IMO. I think thermally we'll be i trouble down here, but as currently depicted would get some front end prior to losing thermals. I personally can see this going norther and what I just suggested could be an issue into central Pa (assuming north trend continues). I'm glad to see the storm no matter. We need it. Beyond that, next week looks redundant of this week. No big torch, and some cool days sprinkled in (sorta normalish see saw stuff.)

Hang in there pal. Just a newbie that needs to figure out how things roll in here.

CMC still holing steady wrt weekend potential

nooner GFS continues to tick N (slp and qpf field). Not a snowy look, but definitely would not write off the storm at all.

I was going to type something along the lines of what TT just did to offer up some suggestions to reduce the amount of trolling you receive. He's not wrong. Saying things like you do without offering a snippet of info as to why YOU think it may "not happen" is a good way to muck up the board and get trolled. Post what you feel...and why you feel it. It's ok to be wrong in here....but sometimes your right and maybe we learn from each other. That's what this board is supposed to be right? A disco thread. Carry on.

just went over to ready CTP's disco, and I'm gonna say, that it was rather reasonable. they threw in some snippets about using old forecaster rule of thumb about betting against something that has yet to hit the west coast and ens guidance suggesting otherwise/norther solutions not being dismissed yet. Thats reasonable and what many of us old weenies use as baselines for most events (when in med/long term) model watching.

lol. just stated the same. Here's to smart minds.

Know that my post wasnt at you at all, just reading what you shared from him. While he no doubt is talented, anyone that's been in this game long enough knows that speaking in absolutes (or undertones thereof) is gonna take it on the chin once in a while. I think that's the rub w/ ctp, they historically dismiss until the bitter end, while using the 70/30 rule of betting on warm/ain't happening rule of modelology.

Yessir. every year for as long as we can remember. Even as a weenie, when you do things long enough you get a feel for how things can (and often do) happen/evolve given certain parameters. Point is...to write something off at 6 days, well that's just silly, especially when there are no overwhelming signals one way or the other. Much atmospheric flux right now.

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.

agreed. its friggn 2/11/26 and peeps sorta seem checked out. If its because they've had and enjoyed this winter so far....that's just great, but climo says 5 more weeks minimum (oh and that furry brown varmint). Spring is comin soon, but enough signals suggest early is not likely.

and wiping egg off their face. They largely bailed yesterday morning, and dipped toe back in da water overnight, but covered all bases.

CMC has been sniffin this one out from early on. How many times have we seen the models lose the storm in the mid range, only to bring it back/north as we get closer to the event. I was LOL'n yesterday with some of the its done/over stuff. This weekends potential event is a perfect example of many storms of the past. Going to be interesting to see CTP updates after overnighters-assuming the norther trends continue.