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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
couple nooners showing NS energy diving down into trough on Friday, and might be something to watch in future runs. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yep, nooner GFS looks like a glorified frontal passage w/ little pop. Enough still coming at us that something can sneak up on us. Nickels n dimes though. Better than 60 and sunny. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
a advisory event could still happen, but not sure much more down here. I'll still be glad to see it snow. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah, the wheels started wobblin last night and looks like NS/SS not playing well together (sounds like the Eagles as well). trough axis little too far east is not helping either. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
im liking the trough axis and see the 500 lp looking a little sharper/neg tilt. this delays the real deal a bit, but might be worth the wait moving forward (if this look continues to hold). gnight all. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
here you go. Fresh off the CTP press. Boy their distain for snow/cold is slightly obvious. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1035 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added mention of SNSQs in the wx grids for 14-19Z Sun && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Snow accumulation /and possibly a few squalls/ expected across the western highlands Sunday. A few snow showers could even make it into eastern Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. Wind picks up behind a broken line of snow showers/squalls. 2) Quieter wx for Mon-Tues. Warmer than normal for Tues-Wed. 3) Still a possibility for a low pressure area to develop later in the week over the Mid-Atlantic. But, many factors are in question. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
6pm Wednesday. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
well boys n girls how happy will the next hour(ish) be? we'll start off by adding the ICON to the thursday party. Mostly northers....but its now popped a SLP and norther 1/2 gets snow. Pops around somerset and traverses pa to Mt. Pocono. as we are almost approaching mid term w/ models it'd be nice to get them all to show something for thursday....or not. Headed out shortly w/ the mrs for some grub. Will check in later. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm just getting started. lol -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
?? Whats the 26th? -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
x2. Us snowhounds gotta stick together. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
your NWS comes outta CTP..... nuff said??? -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That is a nice step towards something. Now 2 majors are showing something and CMC looks like it something wants to pop, but just fizzes out Thur/Fri and waits for sunday to play. Icon is close miss for thursday as NS lags too far behind SS. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I wish your statement didnt have as much truth to it....but....it sure can goof em up. Some of the other majors are showing close misses, and in truth wouldnt take too much to get us into something. Even a couple advisory style events would make many of us happy, especially if we can string a few together in a short timeframe. Snow on snow is my top bar for my love of winter. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Noones taking anything serious...yet. Were just having some fun seeing the potential coming up. I know he's taken some pops on the chops for his posting of maps and peeps taking it to heart. Thats all. Nothing more. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
thats just bombtastic (even if its just for fun). While you cant shovel potential, its sure fun to see and watch how this plays out. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
WWeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee this is gonna be a fun ride. Happy weekend gang. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
09-10 esq..... Been about that long since weve enjoyed back to back warnin level snows. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
In fairness, Blizz isnt "callin" anything. If I may say on his behalf, we both are just seeing the potential (and he has an affinity to post perty maps). I'd gas up the car regardless.....thats a call I think we are safe making -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I've been sayin for a couple days now, there is gonna b a lot of shit in da chute....so it really is gonna be a matter of timing, and why you are seeing a myriad of solutions being offered. NS is about to meet SS for first time in a while, and we just gotta figure out spacing/timing of vorts. No matter what we see in runs over the weekend, its really gonna b Mon/Tues till it gets sorted IMO. That said, its a HUGE win that the pattern is shaping up like it is. How much snow does ones back yard see....TBD, but I'm a tad giddy to see the pattern coming (and why I've been chirpin bout it since early this week. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
nooner GFS says your chasin to ....YORK. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
18z AI's looked nice for next weekend. I'll be casually watchin this over the weekend. Looks like some trackin is about to ensue. the Ducks look dead in da water. Indiana impressive -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Which has better odds of happening??? -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes it is. You can see the energy and how close it is, but as we know all too well, when patterns change, sometimes the first one sets the table for the good stuff to follow. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
trough axis a bit more neg tilted thx to that 500 ull diving in. I can see how this might go boom in next few runs if this look holds. 1/15-16 looks like not much, but may still get a little appetizer in hopes for the main course to follow next weekend. I hope to be watchin the Eagles in the snow. (probably just jinxed them).
