pasnownut

NWS says 31. Guess your runnin hot

split flows can be very active and if you look at tellies/longer lead signals, I'm not sure where the fairly slim part is coming from. -pna and MJO signals are a little troubling, but you just saw what a stout -ao/nao and favorable MJO got us, and they look to head back down after next weeks spike into + territory, so I'd say signs are mixed right now. IF one sees next weeks warmth and is writing off winter....oy vey. WAYY too early to cancel anything. Once a signal looks to be overwhelming in a bad way, then get your caution flags out.

Etown for today per NWS Today Occasional flurries before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

Here was etowns warmest from NWS for yesterday. Just sharing for continuity's sake. 02 14:56 NW 12 10.00 Fair CLR 30.9 8.1 38% 22 30.1 1019.7

Just looked again, and my forecast for today is 31, not 28 (thats tomorrow). Yesterday it was showing 33-34 for today. Carry on. Enjoy mood flakes if you get em. Suns out here.

No worries. I just know historically some have raised eyebrows in the past, so now I just back up my stuff, so you can raise eyebrows the other way I also know that sometimes things run warmer than advertised so i'm guessing that's what some are sharing. I posted at ruin a while back that I dont fret over 34 actual vs 31 forecast....unless there is precip fallin....then I'm madder than a hornet.

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron. just checked for verification for you data weenies. Heres Akrons numbers. Weather observations for the past three days for Lancaster, Lancaster Airport Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 03 07:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21.9 12 66% 30.18 1022.7 03 06:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC045 19 12 21 16 74% 30.17 1022.2 03 05:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast BKN050 OVC055 18 12 77% 30.16 1021.8 03 04:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 18 10.9 74% 30.16 1021.7 03 03:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21 10 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 02:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC055 19.9 9 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 01:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC065 19.9 8.1 60% 30.16 1021.8 03 00:53 W 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW075 19 8.1 26.1 17.1 62% 11 30.15 1021.6 02 23:53 W 3 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT090 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 22:53 W 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 20:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 30.14 1021.2 02 19:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 25 7 46% 30.13 1020.9 02 18:53 W 7 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 8.1 30 24.1 50% 17 30.13 1021.1 02 17:53 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 28 7 41% 22 30.12 1020.4 02 16:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.1 1019.8 02 15:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 8.1 41% 20 30.09 1019.5 02 14:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.09 1019.4 02 13:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 28 10.9 49% 18 30.09 1019.7 02 12:53 NW 14 10.00 Fair CLR 26.1 10 26.1 12.9 51% 15 30.11 1020.3 02 11:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 25 9 50% 14 30.14 1021.3 02 10:53 NW 18 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 8 30.15 1021.5 02 09:53 W 17 10.00 Fair CLR 19 7 59% 5 30.15 1021.6 02 08:53 W 14 10.00 Fair CLR 16 5 62% 3 30.14 1021.1 02 07:53 NW 17 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 1.9 56% -0 30.13 1020.8 02 06:53 W 16 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -0 19 12.9 53% -1 30.11 1020.4 02 05:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0 51% 3 30.1 1019.9 02 04:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0.9 49% 3 30.1 1019.8 02 03:53 NW 15 10.00 Fair CLR 17.1 -0.9 45% 3 30.08 1019.3 02 02:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 18 -0.9 43% 6 30.07 1018.7 02 01:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 41% 7 30.05 1018.1 02 00:53 N 14 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 24.1 19 41% 6 30.03 1017.6 01 23:53 N 10 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -2.9 34% 11 30.01 1016.9 01 22:53 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -0.9 38% 11 29.98 1016.0 01 21:53 NW 14 G 21 10.00 Fair CLR 23 -2 33% 11 29.96 1015.3 01 20:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 -2 32%

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning. Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state. Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers. and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter. Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time. Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above. In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO. MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now. SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.

is that 3" combined, or from each of us

NWS had my only chance at breaking freezing to be today. Yesterday they had me at 33 for the high. today they throttled it back down to mood flakes and 26. Despite the "boring" cold, we have a decent chance at statewide flakes friday and wont see above freezing for the next 7-8 days. Solid winter continues. Thanks for saving what you gave us Mo Nature.

fwiw, go check out the 6z gfs. Blizz was callin that period out the other day, and verbatim its a good one. 9z and 6z had it.

add manheim to the list of mood flakage.

Just icing on the awesome winter cake. With boundary slightly further north, hoping we stay in play.

keep up the good work bud. Looked at nooners and there look to be opportunities every few days, and with the cold to hold....lets play. Just spent the last two hours out on sled ripping through the fields. Cool to see others out doing the same. My son and I are meeting some friends tomorrow and riding for a bite to eat. Only thing i love more than snowmaps and modelwatchin for snow, is playin in it. Oh and Im makin progress on my car. changin out some coil packs. Hoping to finish tomorrow. dont want/need a car payment right now (or ever)

as you /we know, many times we score during times of relaxation of trough/nao blah blah. Enough showing that I'd thin suppression depression will work its way back towards MA/NMA instead of the carolinas.

unfortunately that happens when big cold snaps hit. but fortunately we got hit with a great event prior to, and have lost almost no snowpack. Took the sled out for an after work rip in the fields, and this shit is legit solid. Further compaction when we moderate next week could set the stage if we get more snow to follow, for a memorable stretch of snow days w/ 1" or more otg.

Have fun pal.

Yeah it hasnt been quite as forecasted, but 1 on digi this morning was cold enough.

Lol had my first rabbit doing the same at 630 this morning bird seed is easy pickins for him, which also makes it easy pickins for the hawk that lives in neighbors pines. Picked up 1/2 squirrel last weekend. Hawk is well feed.

I'm turnin my frown updside down. Despite the dud for this upcoming weekend, last few weeks have been and have felt like true winter. Been a long time, and I'm enjoying every day we have snowpack. Looks like pattern relaxes enough moving forward, that chances for clippers and maybe a well timed NS/SS event could happen. Stays cold enough for snow to hold. Lets enjoy what we have and not worry too much about what the next one looks like. It'll come. Till then....enjoy. FWIW my car broke down this morning. Might be major, wont know till next week. Cant fret about it. Gonna b what its gonna b.

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed. Uugghhh.

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE? IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead. cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS. Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

my rule for a long time, ens guidance with op till short term mesos come into range then slowly pass the weather baton off.

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out. CMC kept hope alive. Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.

and just like that.....CMC tries to pull off my wish. Notably more neg tilt, but still a whiff. Now IF that could be the start of the normal north trend, I'd not write this one off. Lots stacked against right now.