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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    This is why many of us are here, but yeah, we hang out w/ some good folks as well. Enjoy all. This is the good stuff (even if a little east for my liking).
  2. pasnownut
    It’s time, but gotta raise eyebrow at gfs. We knew this west look would stop at some point. Took break from cuttin wood. NAM fr the win. I hope. lol.
  3. pasnownut
    wow that is just a beaut. Now how do we get that to verify?? Thats a forum pleaser right there. I still question the hard NW cutoff w/o 1040hp pressin from the north, and am hoping for the NW qpf shield to expand as we get closer. Been a gut feeling based on SLP being a bomb with little resistance from the NW. Thats why trough axis hase been what I'm keying on. more neg she goes, more west qpf expands.
  4. pasnownut
    yeah it was a good one, but thought I should PG it a bit. Not sure if that weathergal is real or not, but wowwy.
  5. pasnownut
    looks like your call was a good one. inevitable shift W has ceased. It's going to be a hell of an event for coastal locals. Still some fun back here.
  6. pasnownut
    all about the trends....even if drunk. It wobbled west, but it still was west. speaking of wobbling....I'm wobblin off to bed. Hoping for some fun in the morning before the chainsaws come out to start my woodcutting season. Gnight kids.
  7. pasnownut
    yep. Icon did as well. staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough). If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting. trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west.
  8. pasnownut
    I think we all have a good shot at warning criteria. last storm I got 8 while those not too far from me got 15", so I guess turnaround is fair play eh?
  9. pasnownut
    after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.
  10. pasnownut
    Nice to see the westward ticks continuing. Were going to run out of them sometime soon, but hey, 1 or 2 more would make many happier than we already are.
  11. pasnownut
    I'm not sure I totally buy that, as there isnt a huge H parked above us to suppress wester qpf expansion, and yeah its a wound up beast, but I'd think a little better western qpf is possible as we close in. I'd not think huge bump, but maybe a couple inches more than currently modeled. also looks like norlun feature is not as big a deal, and its just more of a classic shellackin.
  12. pasnownut
    It really is impressive, and while I know some will troll me for sayin it, I'm glad the GFS may get one, as it just adds an extra layer of WTF for modelwatchin, cause now we have to consider it once again. If it sees this across the line, I will not use GooFuS for the rest of the season, no matter how good or bad it does.
  13. pasnownut
    since you can do the pic thingy, pull hr 78 on GFS clown map...please n thx
  14. pasnownut
    GFS at 10:1 brings the hammer with a 24" between me and Chesco.
  15. pasnownut
    GFS tryin to stay lead dog and makin HH a bit happier. WOOF Nicely tucked and a bit further W. I agree that we are runnin outta room, but little wiggles like this are still going to happen, and this one is totally fine by me. GFS....I'm impressed.
  16. pasnownut
    and the Euro as per Accuchris. likin the trends. Lets hope we can continue this for a couple more runs.
  17. pasnownut
    euro AI joins the sharper trough team and looks better. Another +1 for team snowhounds
  18. pasnownut
    goalposts narrowed a bit, but subtle changes can make big differences for our W vs E sub members. Still need to watch NS and how it dives in. Need that to hold and not fold (some nooners less neg tilt, and some were a touch better). Root for earlier interaction to keep trough neg so this thing can come up and not up/out. Based on progressive trough theme of this winter, its a worry of mine, but fortunately we are getting close enough that big surprises are starting to wane a bit.
  19. pasnownut
    based on SLP track, one could argue that qpf depicted above is a bit underdone for skook n points NE.
  20. pasnownut
    was just looking it over. SLP also came a bit W of 6z.
  21. pasnownut
    Just posted before scrolling down and seeing your response. agreed fwiw
  22. pasnownut
    its sorta a hybrid B IMO. has primary that pops secondary, but its obviously well SE of typical primary up Apps to coastal.
  23. pasnownut
    lookin at it now. Yeah, we'd sign. wow
  24. pasnownut
    as stated earlier, NAM early into storm range often seems lost for a run or 2. Not surprised at all. Not saying it is final solution, but its just the NAM doin its NAM thingy
  25. pasnownut
    wow. That starts the day off well for forecasters....boy I do not envy them right now (well the ones who are tryin to do it right and not be arrogant and rant - thinkin DT types....dude is eatin lotsa egg off face as of right now). Waiting for his backpedal post when nooners come out.
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