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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. who you kiddin..... you'd drink to many things..........
  2. guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one. GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many. You just found your model to hug. Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally. Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know. We'll take it.
  3. My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin. Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter. Hoping we are trackin again soon. This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before.
  4. many 384hr 500 maps come to mind.... Nice well placed PNA ridge in the west west based NAO or neg AO active STJ across the south. I can draw but I hope that works for your visual needs
  5. and for any wondering what "wonky ass looks" definition is. See below. F'd up omega block is also one that comes to mind.
  6. We've actually had a couple decent looks so far this season that had the 3 in play, just off on timing. With the active STJ, all we need is for the wonky ass 500 looks to settle down, get the PNA back to + and then maybe....just maybe.
  7. i got a 1/2 hog last year. First time i've ever gotten custom meat. I will do that again. lotsa good eats. Oh and we'll start a gofundme for the cash. Much easier gift to get (than triple phaser).
  8. all good pal.... just having some fun while we wait for better weather......
  9. carp? is that in the sucker family.......
  10. I'm going whole hog on the 9th.... anyone wanna box him in and take 2/11??
  11. and fwiw, I'm not doom n gloom, just being a realist. And the realist in me just looked at the tellies, and all is surely not lost. AO/NAO headed neg in Feb, will get cold back/closer PNA headed neg - not good but AO/NAO could offset MJO headed twds p7 may help as well Unfortunately MJO/NAO are volatile and can shart da bed w/ the best of em, but IF one believes what the tellie ouija board suggests....it should be more workable as we turn the calendar.
  12. Don't "like" this post, but I agree w/ you. While I've taken a break from models (while enjoying winter IMBY), after lookin at overnighters, this weekend event would have been sneaking one in during a shit pattern. Next week may try to do the same, but we need wholesale changes in pattern before we can get better looks and thats a couple weeks out. If we can time something just right/thread the needle, then maybe, but those odds are a crap shoot down here.
  13. Here is another that I use in case anyone want to look at a couple. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Nice winter weekend. Now we wash, rinse and ...... repeat? Hoping this weeks warmup is short lived and we get the repeat sooner than later.
  14. When I measured around 2:45 we were a tick under 4”. Guessing 1/3-1/2” addl at most. Still very light snow n I’m loving every flake.
  15. Was just going to add that it’s snowing nicely (albeit rather fine). All shoveled plowed etc has turned white here as well. Enjoy every flake. Might be a bit till we see more falling.
  16. Enjoy time w/ your son. Safe travels. 13:1 sounds rather reasonable for the whole event total.
  17. You bring some good stuff to the group. Glad you are with us.
  18. as well you should. Really light snow here and holes in radar say were close to a wrap here. Last measure for me was a pinch under 4" and it absolutely was a win for most of us as per obs that are being shared. Just got done doing my neighborhood snowblowin n cracked my last mad elf in celebration of a snowy weekend.
  19. Just got home a bit ago. Eyeballing and spot measurements in Etown Manheim, Lititz and my house Etown 2.5 ish 27 deg Manheim 2.0ish 25deg Litltz 2.5ish 26 deg House 3.5 on back porch 27 deg Any previously treated surfaces were wet and melting. Anything not treated or plowed was snow covered or slippy for sure. These are obs during my 28 mile trek home to hang out w/ my wife. Except for Manheim, I got out and measured. Just beautiful out there. Saw fresh snowmobile tracks in manheim. Looking forward to some riding tomorrow. Last night on way home Etown was brining already whitish roads, so makes sense that stickage was gonna be tough. Steady light snow in Akron. Hoping coastal backend gives me another 1-1.5. Great friggin day. No chest thumpin here. Just enjoying a nice event that we saw from far out, and it worked. This will stick around for a few days at least...enjoy.
  20. Oof. That sucks. Glad you got things figured out.
  21. I'll be driving home shortly, so I'll get some eyeball measurements from Etown to manheim to litltz to akron. Eyeballing at least 2" here in our parking lot and other items that were clean prior to start.
  22. best rates i've seen so far for this one. (in etown)
  23. Yeah long leads lookin less than stellar, but as we know next week is warm, I'll start worrying about it later next week. I'm not gonna worry or gnash teeth in 6hr increments anymore. I'm just gonna enjoy what we got as long as we've got it. Was hoping PNA could offset AO/NAO, but time will tell.
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