pasnownut

seeing lots of ice on streams/ponds. Been a while since that has occurred. Kid at hockey last night was getting excited at the prospect of ice fishing in the near future. My mind always goes to grumpy old men movie.

Liking the nooner GFS progression as it keeps a lot of NS influence here in the east, and while we have perfected the science of getting jipped, without the NS-cold conveyor, it gets exponentially more difficult, so I'm chalking that up as a win. need to see how the ENS's look, but verbatim cold stays here of close by.

Agreed. Nooner GFS panel you shared is exactly what made me comment as such. NS definitely is playin meat grinder of SS, but I was thinking they might play off one another a little better, as the vort is bascially running the souther boundary, so I assumed it would hold together a bit better upon approach to the coast, but a jump surely appears to be happening. Early morning mood snows I guess. Will be nice w/ coffee.

As a Christian, I think Christianity has evolved a little better than you give it/us credit for. You could insert a few other "rounded up" ones of late, and the undertone of hatred is the same.

While I'm no longer a practicing Catholic, that's really not funny.

Is it just me, or does this weekends minoring out "event" look like a low grade miller B screw job? Gotta say this one has baffled me. Is what it is but I'm scratchin the noggin a bit. Cant say I've seen many systems die out like this. IT's like the perfect "Non" storm IMO

Yeah early on, it sounded way less appealing than ground truth (so far). Do we want snowpack....sure, but it absolutely feels normalish, and is and has been good for my soul. If we can eek out 1-2" this weekend, its just icing on the cake as the overall feel...feels good. Looking at ENS guidance and other indies, it looks like a relaxation is coming, but not sure its a blow torch. For now, I'm going to enjoy another 7-10 days of winter, and see how the dice roll beyond.

agreed on all aspects. Nooners starting off w/ a tick N and still look to be sorting out what vort to focus on.

Yes we sure do. Watch as pattern relaxes (as of my parsin this am, the 15-18th IMO) and the NE snowgrinder lessens is grip. Our luck we go straight back to cutterville, but if timed right, we could score...then watch it melt :(.

better than going broke, right? down here, we've been starvin for a couple years, you've been getting enough scraps to stay alive. Is what it is. I'll say that this has been a much better winter than last year, with more in sight. My glass half full (of snow of course).

He's on point. This one has a bunch of moving parts to sort out. If were smart, we'll temper expectations no matter what, and hope to be pleasantly surprised, instead of moderately underwhelmed.

Wheres the 100 mile bump when you need it....oh the good ol days

Congrats. Underwhelmed for many of us, so we get it. Agreed abt this weekend. If we can get a refresher, it'll be nice. Pattern showing signs of relax beyond week 2, so maybe when that happens we score something notable. Not sure where we go beyond that but if MJO gets to 3 w/ other tellies as modeled, wouldnt be great for "pack retention". I'll just enjoy the next 2 weeks and see where we go from there.

RGEm also had 4 SLP's at 78, so me thinks its having a bit of trouble figuring out where this pops. i'll root the norther one on.

German house model kickin off HH with a bang. Tryin to join weekend party

Many of us have been mal nourished in our appetite for snow, so as we were close enough and we often see surprises, its not surprising IMO. Its all good, and part of the fun. Onto the next one. Hoping this weekend can work out.

for us amateurs, the model parade is largely the best medium to base our guesses off of. Sprinkle in telies/ base state (ENSO), knowledge of climo and whatever other tools us rookies use. It IS the fun on a weather disco board IMO. We get to throw our thoughts in without any bashing from public....just from fellow weather geeks. Like you, I'm totally cool w/ that. While we should have payed better attention to northern fringe on this one, the true CTP'rs overperformed as forcing set up north of us, so one persons epic fail, is anothers quiet little victory. Had that forcing been a bit closer, many 3-6 calls may have worked out a bit better. Thats the fun of this hobby. Figurin that shit out.

speaking of Icon, it is in the souther camp w/ 0z Euro. Strung out n never pops, just rolls along and out SE coast.

loop the 500's and you'll see why.

trough orientation is still pos tilted (progressive) and not negative.

As presented, coastals typcically do have a sharp West gradient. Not atypical. Start looking at 500/700s to get an idea of trough axis, and that can add a clue as to how qpf distribution may look. Get trough more neg tilted and it goes up n not out. Thats what we wanna root for, especially if you are on western side of this

I say to freinds...we've become a point n click society. we see we click we get. no questions. Thats now engrained in most facets of many peeps existence and is an undeniable fact.

Now that most models have something to look at, yeah it may be a fun week to see how this shakes out. Euro furthest S, but plenty of time for good or bad. it did pretty well w/ this one, so one needs to keep that in mind as the next one takes shape. I've really not looked in depth as ive been focused on today (and other stuff at home).

add CMC to the ones to watch column.

You keep ramblin all you want pal. it's literally like you went in my head to write this. You get an atta boy as well.