pasnownut

at 102 1007mb vs 1003 at 6z. Precip shield responded and NW quad was not getting r done. Still ok, but not what we wanted to see. trough to pos tilted and she gets 2pts for escape.

and a tinge better w/ norther precip field at 90. Yes, I'm still here. This is important shit. To heck w/ clients

Its coming around and I'm fine w/ where its at. Notably SLP pops in central NC (which is about 200-250 miles NW of 6z. Gut says GFS nooner is gonna be good.

As I just stated in last post, I'm riding the GFS (due to decent Op run consistency from D7 and in. Its done pretty well wrt showing storm potential and while its waivered some (as they do), its never really "lost" it.

Had to think abt this and where it applies....

Glad to see things coming back around. Truth is GFS has never "lost" the storm, and this year has been decent to follow. Like I suggested yesterday, we just want most (and hopefully Euro soon) to have the storm. One thing I'm hopeful for (and think is starting to get sorted out on morning runs) is the amount of different pieces of energy and which one becomes our storm. GFS and CMC are much cleaner presentation at 6z, and ICON is a hybrid B and shows a secondary pop at 108 (I think Bubbler was chatting about it). Personally not a fan of B's - redevelopers, even if LSV is in the jackpot (right now). Subtle timing changes and too often our storm goes poof for MBY. I'll take 6z GFS and CMC and sign right now...no matter the upside (and like I said yesterday - watch energy on backside for that sharpening of the trough. The more it dives in, the more neg tilt and that could really run up some better numbers for many.) Another part that gets me and likely a bunch of us giddy, is that whatever falls, aint goin nowhere for a while. Been a LONGG time coming to see that. Happy Friday gang. I'm busy today so I look forward to the various PBP's and expect Bubbles/Mitch/ and toothless Blizz to be on point as I'll be reading from afar.

IMO its more of a warm air advection kinda deal out in front of the main show. Something to watch (for a bigger boom) is the backside ULL and how it interacts. 12z shows a little better dive in on the backside, and tugs the SLP closer to the coast. IF that happens a bit more, it'll help to keep SLP closer and should help thermally to add some more sicks of white dynamite to our precious storm. Look at the ULL in Illinois. IF we can get that to dive in, the trough could go a tad more neg, and up she comes. CMC sorta shows where my brain is at WRT to this. TTFN

Just took a look at Kanook model before heading out and yeah....nice signal showing for next week. Happy Day all.

and next panel at 126...a small kaboom was heard in SE Pa. SLP notably closer to coast. Very nice. See you HH or tonight. Got some selling to do.

out to 120you are correct bud. SLP about 100-150 W of 6z and precip shields nicely into PA. I dont need to see more. Signal holds. Onward.

I look at Icon for fun and consensus only. Signal remains....thats enough for me.

mine skips over money panels between 105-126 but extrapolated....it wasnt terrible. Still too far out to worry much. Signal for something remains.

Any thoughts for my Eagles..... j/k...sorta maybe

300+'rs were recently posted when showing warmth....so what the hell....send it. Maybe I'll take a muscle relaxer with a strong cocktail before viewing.

we fully expect some wonky ass drug induced snow maps.

Also, for those of us w/ brown back yards, many central/northers have snowpack remaining from prior events, and so long as they survive tomorrow, will likely be on the way to a several week period with snow OTG. IF you dont have snow, but need a white gold fix, head N or W and enjoy winters splendor. Gas wont be back to $5/gal till after the election. Enjoy.

If one parses over most majors, it shouldnt be hard to see that the upcoming couple weeks that has been supported by ENS guidance is starting to have a nice look to it (pattern wise). Win, lose or draw, several chances are showing. Next Tues/Friday should be first 2 and week beyond....could be more, but I'm not wasting any energy beyond next week. As you stated, should be a fun week ahead.

Is it a bus?

Looking at 12z GFS for early next week, I'm gonna just say....right where we want it.

Regarding your post about the ICON, look at 540's between 6z and nooner. Jogged S by about 3 states. IMO its a little too far out to parse over details, and while you might not like to look at 500's, thats what drives the bus, so IMO we need to "get that right" before diving too deep into surface maps. 6z nooner

For those that cant tell what a good look is, I'll post it for you. 300+ hr maps should be banned from weenie view, no matter how good or bad they look IMO. Hell of late 240 is really pressing the envelope.

Agreed. Looks like we have 1 more rainer to get through before legit winter chances start to show. Hoping this period holds for more than a couple weeks, but we'll worry about that hopefully after a few chances at snow.

Both todays and this weekends event have some fetch that'll likely freshen whatever is left of the snowpack for norther wester LES folks. Looks like a 24 to 36 hr window tomorrow into thursday and then sundayish.

Was thinking the same. Hoping colder air is deeper so you n I worry less.

Lotsa migrant flocks mixed in w/ resident right now. Nephew invited me to waterfowl w/ him this weekend. Told him it may be a tad moist for that as we may need a boat for his fields.