pasnownut

I'm not usually too upset about it as its just a game... but I'm actually pissed off today.... I dont wash jersey when winning I wash when we lose. we've been losing....time to burn it yet

I like that tick SE. Pattern is just getting established, so I'm setting realistic expectations here in Lanco, but CTP should love the nooners.

if that 1035hp holds, i hope it bowling balls due east

That is Mitch's point, in one day we went from well south to bullseye. I'm back from a few days away, and like you, I'm about to get invested in the upcoming period that we've been seeing coming for weeks. Just hoping the chips fall right for us. Looking like plenty of opps for storms as the Pineapple connection looks to keep throwin stuff our way.

Not sure of what years (but I'm sure some of the data mongers have it). Yes, there were a few years when us SE'rs had notably more snow than some true CTP locals. Early look was for this year to potentially be one of em. I'm not throwing any towels whatsoever, but as the pattern looks to get better, cold is still taking some time. I've learned a long time ago that we need to get the pattern right before any digi snowmaps start to mean much. Still look to be heading in a better direction for that anyways. Weather insnt a light switch, and patience is still needed. If 2 weeks from now were still waiting....then I'll start to worry a bit more.

Based on nooner evolution, thats more of a miller A as its one system rolling along w/ HP up north. Overrunning is when the warmer moisture rides up over cold HP and in between precip gets squeezed out aka baroclinic zone. You often have baroclinic zones during zonal flow patterns. Hope that helps a bit.

At least they are coming under us and not at or above us, so at the minimum the pattern change is happening. To what degree, dunno yet. Merry Christmas to all.

It has a few items and one is models. Maybe this helps from NCEP as they have some tools as well https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml only goes out to 6-7 days tho me thinks.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml or pic below you pick.

sure looks better and nice to have support on all major ens guidance. In my opinion, Op models should start becoming more believable in the coming days. Sure hope so.

Here's the problem.....you've offered many long lead Op maps when some of us knew it wasn't happening (last weeks non event that you thew one out many days prior), yet you troll (me) and dismiss others for what they offer that you dont agree with. Hmmm.... Cant have it both ways pal. FWIW, ANY 300 hr map in the last few years has largely been "low res" if we look at verification scores. In the spirit of Christmas, I'll offer the last olive branch as I know we both share the love of weather in hopes of better times in here, as even I am tired of all of the basing of late. I'll no longer trash your offerings that I don't agree with, but I'll point out why I disagree (its a weather disco board ya know), and if I'm wrong, I'm capable of eating crow (and like usual, I'll admit it). As I enjoy/appreciate info you provide - and have even given you credit when you point something of merit, but being dismissive when others share same things as you do and only you get the "good call" is part of the problem here. Its surely noticed. Clickiness in our group has created alot of this, and many here have played a part in creating it...you're not exempt from that...and neither am I. It would be nice for all of us to have meaningful dialog without waiting for certain people to say "its happening". Were all a bunch of novice weather geeks, but there are plenty smart enough in here to support our groups weather convo. I don't think most here get paid for this. Its just for fun. Expecting to be ignored, but I'm over our past as I'm old enough to no longer hold grudges. Merry Christmas to all...and to any that don't believe in Christ....you should go to work tomorrow

Last week my thinking was that by this weekend, good looks would start to show up on the maps. Glad to see were getting there.

thinnking of you at this difficult time bud.

Thank you ....thank you.... and thank you. Until the pattern is figured out by larger scale indicators....even the best snow map on a mid/LR Op run is a short hair more useful than boobs on a bull. I'll us tellies and Ens guidance all day and every day, and even though not always correct, still better than 1 silly run of an LR Op. Ens guidance is many slight iterations of a general common basepoint, and while there are outliers, the ens mean is a good/great tool for longer leads when throwing darts at the weather board.

I guess the retreating cold air came back..... Holy crap, I feel like a cupcake compared to the last few pages. HH takes one for the team.

Based on tellies/ens guidance, looks like the pattern changes just after santa heads back up the chimney. AO/NAO headed - and PNA slightly + is going to help and ens guidance supports this. Unfortunately while the 500's look better as we approach New Years, the source regions are not flooded w/ arctic air. 2m temp snapshot shows this. At least flow is better and hoping the cold can load up in the land of the canooks...but this is a Nino so I'm not sure cross polar air is headed here yet. Better is the word for now.

Now that we have most Ens guidance showing the change and we're inside 200 hrs, it should give confidence to better times a comin. For all the lovers of LR Op, go peek at the 384 GFS. Looks like a doozy taking shape down south with cold a plenty in the MA. Rolled forward the word "incoming" pops into my noggin.

Yeah its nice to know that while we'll be under the influence of a large ridge this weekend, 2m temps are only in the 40's. Factoring normal biases, I'd guess some might crack 50 for a day or so, but at least its no pig ridge w/ anomalous warmth. That was my worry last week, but I'm happy to be wrong in that regard.

woke up to a coating/dusting on the grass/car topper. Ens guidance looks to be AOA the 10 day window for appreciable changes, so lets hope that by this weekend we are starting to crawl outta the caves and start chatting up some white love from above.

Great read man, and I totally agree. Thats why I always share various tellies, as while some indies are major drivers, they still are only 1 piece to a puzzle that is in a state of flux, and while separate in space, are always intertwined in our weather and evolution. Its not a simple x/y correlation for any 1 telleconnection and what it shows. Regarding MJO post, I suggested going strongly into 8 because higher amplitude might offset other more muted signals that AO/NAO/PNA were showing. Not gonna be able to dive in today (my sons house has 2" water in basement-so I'm at office to clean stuff up, and then going to hang up the santa suit for today (client wise) and put the muck boots on to help my kid. Quick look at Ens guidance looks notably better for the holiday week and beyond. Hoping the evolution continues to work towards a good pattern.

This looks better than a couple days ago when i said it needed to go due W right off the chart. Thats a decent run into 8 and coupled w/ better tellies might just get r done.

Sure hope so. If one looks at 2m temps beyond the rainer on the GFS, while the pattern still looks less than ideal....its not horrid either and beyond christmas the temp profile looks rather ninoish and more workable.

Liking that the GFS Ens are showing, but this ^^ is not a great look IMO. Hoping that ridging in central Canook land gets suppressed as source region (while cold)- is modified polar pacific origin, and while it may get cold enough, that ridge rolls over a tad east.....and you can look at early next weeks rainer and assume something similar IMO. Just me nitpickin and not forecasting whatsoever.

trolls is the key word/exception in all of this crap.