pasnownut

hell, just look at GFS op/ens, and if anyone has been doing this, that alone should cause a flag to show up. Notable diff's within them at 500. Just gonna be fun to enjoy a winter week and chat up more potential.

today is the add any model that shows what we want into the "ones not to toss" pile.

That comment was in regards to the next weekend event. I think this one is a safe advisory for you and south, but once north of the burg is gonna have a noticable drop. I'd bet selinsgrove barley sees an inch.

I'd think your by call is safe. next weekend just looks good on Op surface maps, but ENS arent really supportive. Plenty of time to narrow that one it.

Hoping this one can work out. Been a whiles since we've seen a potential event of this size.

Here'sto a Sunday funday of model watchin. NAM's tickin S for nooners. Starting to run outta time so I hope us southers can stay in the 3-5 r 6 zone today. Looking forward to a winter landscape for a while.

based on track, its a realistic distribution IMO

3k keeps us believers believin. SLP never transfers and just bowls across so no qpf dryslot to worry about for us. I'd sign right up for this right now and call it a great day. (it is a great day no matter what this storm does).

keeps my 3-6 guesstimate for southern tier in play (for 6 hours anyway).

agreed. with this setup, tight gradient should be expected to the N, as its lowest is 1004mb so forcing is limited, but whoever gets the good qpf at -8 to -10 iso's should rack up some fluff IMO.

Been doing plumbing and chores all day, but while concerned about the souther shift of late, we often see this, and with this current setup, norther adjustments arent bunk imo. Add to that the typical cool bias we sometimes see, I feel it offers this vort a chance to correct/jump north a bit...somewhat like the HH Nam'r just did. Is it correct, not sure, but like all of us weenies, I have my methods and theories as to how things often roll here and just use my 3 decades of weenie watching to base my assumptions on. Gun to head....we may have another tick or 2 N until we get inside of 24, then a tick back S and then it's go time. Headed out to dinner shortly, and am sorta casually watching, but I still think lowest tier counties are 3-6 w/ 8" lollies especially in somerset/laurels where a 10 spot may happen. As stated the other day, IF we can keep the miller b option delayed, or denied, I feel pretty good abt it. NAM @ 48, the 500's/700s dont show me why it gets sheared and heads SE and makes me scratch my skull a bit. Every panel SLP holds together, is a couple extra hours of beautiful blue over us. Mind you I'm just lookin at HH NAM maps. I may dive deeper later or tomorrow morning. Happy weekend gang.

That will tug em all right back in. I know it did me. for 6 hrs more anyway. We've suffered this long....lets ride or die.

Guess they didnt look at or consider the HH Nam. I like it.....alot

Glad to see the pros like to use ensemble guidance. They've been bashed a plenty by some.

Sure hope so.

HH RGEM ticks N and keeps us watching. Good to see some tickin N. Hope we’re not done yet.

Solid 1” here in Akron. Pretty much done now. Appetizer is good. Waiting for main course sun/mon.

This is ground truth.

ok, I'm out. Have fun yall. c u later

one takeaway, is that CMC goes w/ the idea i shared earlier, and holds onto primary all the way to coast. Thats a + but now we need the cold press to slow the souther progression. Thats wishcasting though so the jury can strike that comment from the record.

at 72, SLP and precip notably S. shall i stop now....lol

at 66, SLP smide SE, qpf smidge NE.... wtf

thru 60 CMC SLP and qpf field tick N of 0z

summary of GFS is....keep hope alive till next model says otherwise.

78 qpf bumped north. southers approve. I 80'rs hold breath till HH