pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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at 66 SLP slightly NW of 6z
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Nooner GFS early on...precip field coming a bit south of 6z. It's ELLIOTS fault.
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One thing to remember, we want to root the primary on for as long as it can, as thats the key to avoiding dryslot when primary transfers. Some early morning runs show this and hopefully confluence lessens a bit as this would likely further aid in primary holding together longer. Something I'm watching for anyway. edit...and as i look at nooner ICON, it says screw your idea pal.
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RGEM snow map moves N approx 50-*75 miles fwiw.
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GREM thru 77 holds onto primary longer. I 80 and south crew approves of this.
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FWIW RGEM coming in a tick N of 6z thru 65/ Precip shield slightly N as well. Subtleties mean everything to those on the edge, so I'm hoping the edge moves north today.
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Mine started first pull. Oil so slightly used in last 3-5 yrs, I just topped off and am ready to go.
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Feel better pal.
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Normal ebbs and flows of model watchin. A little S and then a little N finds the southern tier lookin at an appreciable event...no matter the subtleties of our backyards. Still think up to I 80 and S see snow, unless some big shift comes in the next 24 hrs, which is not likely IMO.
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good enough for now. See you tonight, or maybe HH
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CMC is similar to GFS and qpf distribution . Snowmaps a touch better and gets 6" up to voyager
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as i look at snowmaps for the funner qpf distribution, youll notice a nice bump N into true central. Thats a great thing. rt 30 and S has warning level and advisory level getting closer to I80
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cold press at 102 is what might limit Nwd expansion, but can also help to squeeze the lucky ones isothermally.
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looking at 500's and 700's not sure how much further north this can come, so keep an eye on that for those livin on the edge.
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verbatim based on SLP track and thermals, this is really a nice evolution, and believable as it fits the pattern.
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of course, but now you have the GFS sayin..... hold my beer
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102 also transfers in N Va. good spot for us, as dry slot would be muted up here.
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102 has snow up to NY border. Crowd pleaser fo sho
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Trend continues at 96.
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SLP at 90 a smidge N of 6z qpf field similar thermals a tad N (which should allow a better adjustment N in next couple panels. I80 and S may approve
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yep. Looking a touch N of 6z. Money panels incoming
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at 72, nooner GFS is a tick N of 6z wrt thermal boundaries and SLP good start, how will it finish....
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absolutely. Regardless of how these next couple weeks work out, legit tracking has commenced and is most welcomed by many. Nice to see a couple of chances looming.
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I'd think many/most would take the 12z evolution in a heartbeat. I know I would. Nice to see most bigguns coming around to more norther options. Not sure I'd call it a consensus yet, but its starting to look like one is forming, and the souther whiff appears a bit less likely.
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But is it a good model......??? Well for today it sure is...
