pasnownut

oops. happy PRE Friday santa and sleigh time makes the days run together for a sales guy that tries to visit top 20 in a 10 day stretch.

You keep posting the cabin cam pics, youre gonna started getting trolled like when i post Sweden Valley sno cam pics. Keep it up btw. I appreciate it Thx for sharing. Happy Friday all.

They likely caused me to be diabetic (jk...i know better). Could nock that green box of 20 off in a day when I was young. You know the ones.. that went on sale post Christmas....yeah those boxes. I've often said that I enjoy the simple things...and they are truly one of em...

It was like a blanket thick over east of you in myville....

Morning gang. Just parsin over the tellies and maps, and yeah it looks like the see saw ride will continue till we warm up to end the year. Moving past the holidays they continue to hold a workable look, as the NAO, PNA and AO have +'s and -'s where they need to be, but no overwhelming signals. MJO earlier this week looked to get into a better phase 7, but then did the pump fake and tried to loop back into 6 (not good- maritime phase). This morning that appears to be gone, and just higher amp 7. ENS guidance still lean twds getting into 8, but that's no lock. MJO influence may be muted based on current ENSO state, but it still looms large IMO and something I'm watchin as we end the year. +pna is great only when we can get cold press in the east, or if often means were just flooded w more pac air. IF it goes to 8 w/ other indies holding as shown, zonal to slighly troughed in east would be a legit possibility and a workable pattern may show. as the current look for the new year is, we need NAO/AO to help offset pac influence just warmth just rolls east or NE thru conus, and we get cuts and post frontal cold (as we've gotten rather accustomed to). Was hoping MJO would keep moving and better looks would be showing up, (other than the always good looks of 360 hr ens guidance shows) -but we've all seen them enough to know better. It's just a tool....fool, and for now they are just eye candy. Speaking of candy, there's candy canes over in the candy basket, so I'm going to snitch a couple. Have a great day.

GFS "warmed" up to the idea. Antecedent cold is a sketchy slope but 1042 HP off S Maine coastline doing its thingy....long enough for a little fun on the front end.

WOW. Now that's a SCORE! Enjoy the game.

Nooners starting to look like some stuff to watch as potential reshuffle may be taking shape. I'd pay good coin to WATCH the PSU snow bowl.... While I care who wins, I care more about snow....:)

Proceed w/ caution bud. ENS guidance notably less troughy on that same period. Of course I'm rooting for above to happen, but throwing it out there. You can still ask santa for an early stocking stuffer though.

ENS guidance starting to look a bit better for the 12/20 weekend and beyond. Not GREAT, but better. Should at least let talk of snow chances have some merit. Tellies overall looking better this morning. MJO still needs another week to see if it gets outta 6 and into 7. If that happens, it could be a nice look just in time for santa.

Dont mock it till ya try it..... Been there...did that. Its just not in the cards for us down here. As stated, norther westers can score on these, so if I lived up or over there...I'd be fine w/ backend snow and a couple days of white after. I guess I'm just pooh poohin the look in my/our hoods. I'm not trying to pooh pooh any chatter about how we may get snow, as sneaky surprises (like upcoming event) are capable of doing just that, but its a needle in haystack look for the next week. AO looks to be headed back notably neg and PNA + after mid month, and that helps IF other indies arent crap. Need to see what that new look is next week IMO.

Truth told, its been a while since we've had rain to snow scenario. The good ol days of watching every raindrop and waiting for the rain to turn to white rain, then the flip. I'm rooting for this, but we've done enough of these (especially down here) to know how this typically pans out (post empty pan pics at will). Elevation/norther/westers...many of us are living vicariously through you on this one. Happy to see the post frontal cold shots, to keep things from being totally sh!t, but until we find a way to get troughing back in the east, or at least zonal boundary far enough S to keep us in the mix, I'm keeping chips in pocket for a while. Not much on ENS guidance, as its a rather progressive look, and one of PAC air origin/dominance. Maybe next week we start to see a better look. Hope so.

lets get the soil water content up so when the deep freeze comes, its an insulated frozen tundra for maximum pack retention.

BTW, white rain at ski sawmill. https://skisawmill.com/webcam/

I never turn him or England Dan and John Ford Coley off. Ever...

Agreed. Its part of the game and to that end, the unpredicability is what makes many of us watch. Now if you are betting half of your lifes savings every weekend...then maybe I'd want it watered down to best coaching/talent. I've no interest in that, so let em play. Thats my sports rambling for the month....

Yeah it was nice for the northers to have a couple weeks of winter. wash - in process rinse - also in process repeat.....hope so. (prob later this month) - or maybe a festivus miracle. Whatever falls likely wont be OTG for more than a couple days, but I'd be happy to see that down here.

NAO heading + makes me skeptical of holding any colder scenarios (mind you mid week has enough neut/neg tilt to pull down backside fun for some), but this is where my heads been since I punted the next couple weeks last week. As always northers/westers can get backside action, but down here our goose is sorta cooked. If we can get MJO outta 6 and into 7, and couple that w/ -AO, we might have a better chance at scoring. +PNA w/ +NAO just says zonal pac origin air to me, but if AO can get notably -, that could put us in or close enough to the baroclinic zone to keep eyes on stuff.

Queues up Bryan Adams..."cuts like a knife". As suggested earlier, the reshuffle is gonna need to reshuffle before we can get something more than backdoor cold fronts....until then...meh. A tidbit of hope is that I was parsing over the Enso thread earlier to see how things have evolved in the last few weeks, and I'm not at all terrified by what I read. But with MJO heading into maritime phases, neg AO w/ slightly +pna still has a zonalish look to it. Oh and the NAO notably + doesnt help either. Just sharing what i see and what me thinks we have to look forward to in next couple weeks. Hoping I'm way off my rocker...

Sorry to hear this. NAM/HRRR both suggest that they should lessen as we approach noonish, but I'd bundle up for it nontheless. Thinking of you and your yours.

Looks like you mighta been more right for my neighborhood. Gusts to 32 Current obs here in Akron Partly Cloudy and Breezy 29°F -2°C Humidity 47% Wind Speed NW 23 G 32 mph Barometer 30.15 in (1021.6 mb) Dewpoint 11°F (-12°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 15°F (-9°C) Last update 6 Dec 7:53 am EST

They do have bite to them. Was surprised when I went out to get wood at 5am at how gusty it still was. Cams look like a winter wonderland for norther/westers. Tug looks good for Snodeo weekend as well (well its usually this weekend anyway).

Hope we can score a little backend lovin, cause if ENS and telles are correct, a zonalish flow that floods conus w/ pacific air looks like it will be taking over for the foreseeable future. Hoping we can change that before Santa gets here.

LMAO. Well played.

No worries....It'll change by 300-500 miles for HH.