pasnownut

Should we use JB's delayed but not denied statement We've seen this far too many times and this shouldn't come as a surprise to most in here. If one objectively looks at 500mb maps on ENS guidance and source regions to see where our weather is coming from, one can come to reasonable conclusion that for the next 2 weeks its close the curtains and thats been the look for a while now. While we wait for the better signals (and as of a couple minutes ago, they are still decent as we get beyond next couple weeks), I think emotion also plays in at the time of year when Burle n Ives kinda Christmases run amuk in our snow loving skulls. Looks like we just need to chill n ride out the warmish period and hope that things continue to materialize and not get kicked down the calendar.

Congrats and agreed. Only diff moving forward it what I just posted, no real windows open for the next couple weeks, but for the fall and early winter as a whole...it's a WHOLE lot better than last year. Looks like winters just taking a pause for a little while. Is what it is and yeah, lets hope the 12z's tell me I'm off my rocker.

Looking beyond current cold shot, the flow becomes SSW and somewhat of an omega block gets established in the central parts of conus. Floods us w/ pacific air with no real troughing here in the east as we lead up to Christmas. 2m temp anomalies are just not looking good for the next 2 3weeks. Hoping there is a light at the end of the tunnel as we get to Christmas week and beyond.

while the pattern looks better in the coming weeks, heights associated w/ said pattern aren't anything to get jacked up about. All we can hope for is that once we get the flow right, we can get more chances as peak climo gets closer. That's been my worry while parsing over Ens guidance for the last week. 540's north of our region, no matter the flow....makes it challenging for sure. IF the SSW that is being discussed can take shape and grows in confidence, the lag time is typically 15-30 days, which could help us to get into some fun w/ colder source regions.

Dude, you don't have to answer to me. Your word is plenty good IMO. I'm not one of "those" guys. And even if you were embellishing a bit....the diff between 1/2" and 1" really shouldn't be anything to squabble over regarless.... Happy for you pal. Enjoy your microclimate

Congrats and welcome to the group. You guys were always in the catbird seat for this one. Enjoy.

You doubled me. I'd say 1/2" for my area. North of Lititz/Manheim was the big winner on my way into office. Frosting on trees and mountains to north had a pretty frosting as well. I was just pleasantly surprised to see anything, so my expectations were surpassed.

Congrats to all the winners. So because so many like to do the summer mow count. I'm doing a winter snow count. Thats 3 snowings for my house....so far and that already surpasses last winter #winning.

Looks like a rare "win" for us LSV'rs for a transition over to some snow. Just a light coating from my house to Etown, but I'll still say it was a win for me. It'll be gone in an hour or 2 but was nice all the same.

Good luck to all overnight. I’m setting my lowest bar for changeover here in Lanco but hope that dynamics can overcome meh thermals. Good to hear some within a few counties have started to transition. 425’ ain’t gonna do much for me here. Gnight all.

You're a better man than I. No lurking needed for me. I miss a few posters, but do not miss sifting through the rubble. I left shortly after you did, and you, Chill and PSU (and prob a few others that I forgot to mention) were the main reasons I stayed for as long as I did. Some here think it aint happening unless they say so. While three's a good bit of talent down there, our area can be notably different in outcomes, and sometimes I found myself getting caught up in what they were rooting for while it was snowing IMBY.

Some Ob’s from my travels. Palmyra to line grove had a solid 1”. Plows were down near catawissa. Bloomsburg barely a coating. Williamsport to Mansfield university much the same. Cabin down low a coating. Up top 1.5-2” and icy as hell. In Westfield now. Wing nite. I’ve got pics for proof but damn things are too big. Happy for all that got some flakes today. About 260 miles for the day.

BEAUTIFUL ride into work. Winter wonderland, and lititz to manheim had many roads caving/caved, and its almost as much snow as we received down here for the entirety of last season, and its only 12/7. Its a win. Happy for all that got some (2 days in a row mind you). I'm off the grid seeing clients up north, then headed to cabin till mid day Saturday. Yall need to work your mojo to make sunday happen. Enjoy

as i suggested the other day when the backend changeover look started to show, gotta hope for the earlier secondary pop so thermal boundary can collapse like a cheap tent. As depicted overnight, and as bubbler suggests, we typically dont do well w/ anafrontal snows (modeled vs reality).

Sad to hear. His site is/was of big interest to the snowmobile community, and I used to visit often during winter months. He was the one to listen to in the UP. Hoping they keep it going as you suggest. RIP fellow weather weenie.

Glad to hear/see all getting a little love from above. Looks like the north country is the big winner with the overnight and morning event. My obligatory cam post of link near cherry springs where stars shine "brighter" http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/CherrySprings.jpg

yeah its really light snow here in Etown as well. Good for the mood if nothing else.

congrats to the GFS for sniffin this out a week ago. Check radar verification.

Root on that secondary to pop earlier off carolina coast and maybe just maybe....

I also had some falling on way into office. They looked lonely, but I'll take a lost snowflake over none at all. beggars.......

Our own Mitch has been on them like a wet blanket. We dont need to wait for DT to say somethings happening...and at last check, his track record isnt too stellar. Good met but not perfect. thats all I'm saying.

DT has an affinity for all things Euro....not surprising. He saw Mitch's map and started woofin. Mind you, I've no problem w/ it at all, but no "good call" should be given to him. Tellies and MJO progression are 2 big hints that some changes may be looming.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

nooner GFS really trying to thwart any notable warmups fwiw....and beyond 5 days, I'm hedgin w/....not much. If ever it were to be right tho. Now would be a nice time to shine.

yeah, nice to see mention of snow showers in the next 2 days. Regardless of the outcome (which appears to be similar to what we saw almost a week ago), it has been well modeled for the last week.