pasnownut

Like many others here, you add great value, and the open minded - level headed approach to offerings is easy to see. Keep up the good work as this hobbyist has learned so much from the likes of you/others. IMO the PDO is and has been the biggest player in what we see here in the east, and if we can manage to stay neutralish in the means, it may be much more "normalish" here in the east... as all of last years good indies, were offset by it IMO.

Pin worthy post. Part of the fun IMO as even a hobbyist can add some value as the constant ebb and flow of weather is ever changing, and we seem to play catch up wrt what we see and what may happen. Not for a second would I ever discount ANY met/pros offerings, unless a bias is present in what they offer to the masses.

Rabbit hole or not, lots of good stuff here. Thanks for sharing.

Great stuff as usual. On way home from the northwoods, Beautiful (and likely peak) from northwoods along rt 6 down to just above @pawatch in Perryville/Trout Run areas off rt 15. Brilliant colors from Trout Run to Morris exit. Was really great on the eyes. Based on above, I'd guess this week will put you up to WSPT in the colorful crosshairs. Enjoy.

Lowest car thermo went this am was 41. In last couple weeks, I've seen a couple hi 30's so far this year (37 being lowest so far on same thermo -for accuracy's sake....)

Thats plenty enough for me to be out enjoying it...Not sure how you get such good quality pics on here, but I often enjoy what you post. Guessing 1/2 hr north of Williamsport will be where I'll see more intense foliage change (typically anyway at this time of year).

And seeing that Saturdays washout looks to be giving way to less qpf... thats good to see. Enjoy the weekend all. I'm outta pocket and going to enjoy the fall spendor in the northwoods.

Yeah, as I was reading up on chatter about potential impending warmth, the cold snuck right under my feet. 40-65ish is rather enjoyable and its a beautiful morning for sure. More Indian summer to enjoy.

38-41 on way into office. Spotty frost on a few rooftops and a spattering in some protected lowlands. Been a wonderful autumn so far. Hitting the hills tonight after being in clearfield last weekend. Was looking for you @Atomixwx at the Rendevous Saturday night. Cool litle place.

Not diggin Saturdays forecast, but it is what it is.

Yeah thats nice. I'm expecting Nov/Dec torch(s) as "normal" (uses rather loosely) NINO climo suggests that may be the case, but so far, autumn has been real nice. Just need to find a way to get the storms ot of the way midweek, and not on weekends.

My street is at the bottom of the hill in Akron, Other areas were low lying areas on way into office and is exactly what you stated. No frost observed on ground tho. Just sporadic rooftops in said areas.

I saw 37 on car thermo just outside of Akron/Lititz. I had 39 at my house. Spotty roof frost observed as well, mainly between my house and Manheim.

My son, his wife, and a bunch of friends were there also. Hope you had a nice time. Sounds like it went rather well?

mowin n mixin w/ a splash of weather

This looks awesome and like a rather good lunch cocktail.

hate to say it...but warm early Octobers is not much of a qualifier for Winter 23-24' outcome imo. If we add in high end MOD/Stong Nino then maybe it gives a little more credence to the list that would be shown (much smaller as well IMO) Warming base state plus ENSO/EPO/NAO/AO offer a little better glimpse, but as we all know, some don't show their cards until closer to game time, but thats just how my brain sees it.

Yep, It'd be quite a bold prediction to think that more Indian Summer is not on the way. Ens guidance beyond 240 starts to diverge some as we get twds end of run (not putting a ton of faith in that - just an obs). Havent looked much deeper to see how the other indicies are lining up.

They have 2,000' more of elevation, and yeah, that can "add up" in the winter. and yes, ULL sits above us for a couple days and feeds the area w/ colder NW flow. Been consistently showing up for a while now and doesn't seem to be losing steam as we get closer to Saturday.

My son just got married at the Mt. Hope Winery (part of the Ren Faire) on 9/16, and it was PACKED. Get her a turkey drumstick and have a blast. Quite a few of the wedding guests said they were going back to partake in the festivities. Enjoy.

Globals still holding serve on Sunday first legit cold press of the season. When looping back over last few runs, it may be a tad deeper fro yesterdays runs.

As I enjoy the long lead stuff heading into winter (ENSO thread is a great source of ideas/input from some really talented gurus). They/some disagree and think it may be aoa peak. What does that mean to us....not sure yet, but this looks (below graphic copied from Tip), to be headed to a basin wide Nino and not just East based. Just another theory being tossed around in "our" circles. Unfortunatley the typical x/y correlations also may not apply or hold as much value, as our base state is one that we've not had much data sampling to match up to wrt the warming of mother earth. Time will tell.

I'm the guy who doesnt wash his team jersey UNTIL they lose, so I'm right w/ ya.

Sunday looks like the core of the cold, and this coupled with this would be the catalyst for my first flakes suggestion. Other globals not as deep wrt 850's, but again, I'd say Allegheny plateau and north into NYS could have a brief window for some mashed taters w/ Sunday dinner.

shusshhh you. bad voodo