pasnownut

It's because that's all you do is....complain and blame mets for blown forecasts. Weather isnt just data generated and the science behind it is what the allure is for many here. You seem to want simple weather outputs that hit 100% of the time. Just not gonna happen, and you know it. Maybe you throw your weather thoughts into the ring, and we'll see how that goes. Otherwise, expect much the same.

While we need the blocking for something big, I don't think any here are lookin for a big dog on this one. He's right, it is still a progressive flow, but this one is all about the trough axis and how much it can dive in to push this up the coast and slow the eastward progression. Many here would take a 2-4" scooter up da coast, and be just fine. Point is that trough axis is the key to the snowy promise land on this weekend. Not enough dig, it slides off the carolinas and we smoke distant cirrus here.

CMC/Icon also ticked west for Sunday funday storm. Enough time/moves left for this to be next on watch list. Still a progressive trough, and not a longwave stable look, so it needs to dig and pop fast, as any delay in doing so would be headed for scooterville (SE Coast/fishy) kinda deal.

Yep, trough axis gave it a chance to come up and not out. a little more dig on HH and beyond, and we might get into a notable event. Even as depicted on nooner, I think LSV and easters would approve

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. I guess it really is "up in the air" right now. hehe

IMO its really the SS starting to fire back up that is throwing the models into fits, as there are so many vorts coming at us, they are trying to figure out what (if any) interaction there may be between the 2 streams and as yall should know by now, it doesnt take much to make sumthin when you sit near the boundary. For that reason, I think, is why its really inside 72-96 till the picture starts to get less fuzzy. Thats why I've not written off this period like many others have. In the end, I may be wrong, but I'm just followin my guy on this one (and by following gut, that doesnt mean something will happen), 6z GFS is gettin notably closer for weekend. Might be sniffin cirrus back here while easters see some flakage.

and as I suggested a few days back, it might be into the mid range until things get sorted out. With that in mind, 0z's are coming around to the idea of a lot coming at us, and look a tad better for this weekend as well. ICON/GFS/CMC are stepping in the right direction. 1/24 nuke job, we'll find out in a few.

Hey man. Good to hear from you. Glad that you are liking where we are headed. Lets just hope baroclinic zone wavers south for some of these. SWFE's are some of my favorite, as frequency is usually every couple days, and ya just need to see what side of the snow fence you are on for each of them.

If this news gets published here.... I might not have anyone to chat w/ me anymore.....hehe edit: i see it has..I'm wonding if Im being purged as we speak.

Might be headed to cabin this weekend. Not sure yet. I'm told the weekend rain froze and made it a real icy mess up on the hill. Mtn roads are almost impassable. Do you agree? Looks like a couple inches coming tomorrow night. If wet, it'd prob help. If fluffy....ugh. We were slippin and sliding 2 weekends ago. Groin still recovering, but I'd like to get up.

For now, virtual reality sounds fine, right?

Atta boy. Shoulda known better. Kioti's are nice. Played on one when cutting wood every year (property owner had a dealership and always had the nice "demo" toys to play with). If you saw that map above, that might warrant blowing the dust off the Kioti. Enjoy.

Hell, a warnin level event would suit me just fine, or a couple advisory types in a short timeframe. I'm a realist, but someone went a little wild w/ the fairy dust for HH. @anothermanthanks for postin it.

Yeah I knew Kutch would look better than run of the mill 10:1, but didnt want to sound like I was hypin somethin up

Some peeps just want somthin to complain about. I don't get that one bit. Who f'in cares if they are calling for 46 and its +/- a couple. Whoopy f'in doo. Sounds like the Debbie train is loaded n full steam ahead.

Callin @Blizzard of 93 Yall want a snowstorm to root on, go look at the GooFuS 1/24 "event". Then hold onto side rails.... and look at the snow map. Verbatim, it is likely one of the most prolific snow events I've seen, maybe ever. Maybe not for widespread disruption, but entire state at 12+ Through the run, somerset jackpots at 62". What I/we wouldnt do to see something even remotely close verify. Someone needs to post the map. Its just a statewide slammer. Based on pattern evolution and looking like a zonalish flow, based on tellies blah blah blah, it sorta fits the flow. Just go look so you have something to bitch about when it doesnt happen.....till then, I'ma gonna dream.

wow.... can you say.....snowPLOW! thats a long driveway!! you can get a plow cheap on marketplace. I got brand new one that was for an Exmark Tractor (for free), and cut mount bracket apart and fabricated it to be a front pin mount for my UTV. Works like a charm (minus my less than stellar welding), and it's saved my back a ton when at cabin. Hoping you get to use your blower Thurs.(not sure why i said Friday earlier other than I friday on the brain as i may have to travel from Etown to Lock Haven to Mansfield that day.) Then I'll just stay up north and play w/ my plow. I'll turn the negative in the the positive.

I80 northers approve of HH NAM'in they are getting Thursday. as many models are honing in on SLP track, looks like some snow is possible for them. Hoping its the start of something. If not, there's always the next one.

officially or just chatter. officially once in last 19yrs unofficially probably 100's. I like Tomlin, and wish him well.

I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend. The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs. Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather. That said....we feel your pain. Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun. For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.

no offense, but that's your personal take. Mine, not at all the same. I like winter and seeing snow....often. Even if nickels n dimes.....often. Like every other day....often peeps need to be reminded that ones perspective is often based on personal likes/dislikes, and thats just fine. But just cause you feel something and post about it...doesnt make it happen. I rarely post w/ my emotion (well in fun sure), but I think most know that I try to keep my personal feelings/wishes out of what I see or share, and try to use some amateur weenie knowledge into possibilities. We've had a not horrible pattern for weeks now, and yes, it feels wasted to us true snowhounds, but up north has been basically snowcovered since thanksgiving (with the exception of a few small periods/days).

I dont really "like" what you state, but couldnt agree more.

as soon as a good hit shows....you'll be back. Just like most of us.

i do not follow him, but from the sounds of what some of you share, he sounds like he's got the ass of something. Also not sure that his reasoning is the only reasons that it "isnt happening". 50/50 just locks cold in. Verbatim, patter IS cold enough, but as I've suggested a few times over the last week, IMO its move of a split flow kinda thing that NS/SS aren't really synching up. I'm no met, but that's what it looks like to me. Still think we can keep an eye on some smaller stuff.

lol. Now watch one of these synch up w/ SS and give us a nice event. Tell me without telling me that it cant happen?