pasnownut

heres that panel shat shows what I'm talking about. You can see the closed contours over southern Ill. next frame, its of NC coast and right where we want it. again its just a run, but its a nice run.

verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm.

That's the underlying point i was driving at. At LEAST there's stuff to look at, and not just massive red blobs parked east of the Miss. for weeks on end. I'll enjoy the ride cause at least were on the ride, and not standing in a long ass line waiting to get on.

whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy.

snowing nicely in Etown

thats the $10mm question that spurs much debate. I see the same (not at wallys world, just at my local places of business that i patronize). I have opinions and my own answers to things, but wont get into that. Just sucks in many different ways for so many. All the best to my weather weenie crew in the next bump in the road.

In weather related news, the para holds out hope for next weeks chance for the I80 north crew. Ens guidance still shows broad trough in conus kinda look and no WAR. Not a stellar look, but not a toaster bath kinda deal either.

Yes. Increasing restrictions once again. Go buy wood now, because much will be used to board up businesses that are hanging on by a thread. Hell, California is now starting to wake up and see how bad restrictions are affecting their own economy. We can do this w/o draconian measures. I now own 5 masks....and hate every one of em but by and large were all good soldiers and doing our part.

Just parsed of home team ens runs and was not bothered (comparing to last year). I'd lock them in as currently depicted and see what shakes out. MUCH better curvy line orientations and colored blob placements. I'll throw some house money in.

its 2020. You really needed to ask.....

last snippet for the day (until things look legit, i'm not "wasting" time like i used to sniffin out snow). Too much grief and agony. Getting too old for that. On that note, home team ensemble runs today are not hard on the eyes, and much more workable than we've seen for some time. PNA is ok, broad trough central and east. Not saying we score, but we may be close enough to put something on the board(s). Have a good one gang.

another positive takeaway is that we are seeing subtle shifts in a favorable direction for next week. Thats something we'll all agree on.....cept Tamaqua boy :).

you missed this one. Yes its only 1 frame that we lose thermals, as 850s crash in the next, but SE crew would turn/taint for sure. Regardless, we are parsing over an Op run in wayoutthereland, so not really worried, as we'll have 20 more looks to pick from in the next 10 days, but like i said, its close enough for me to push SOME house money in.

Not a cutter but looks like a killer B to me... Closed countours of the SE coast show Coastal transfer complete in following 2 frames and verbatim, saves the 80 north crew, but yeah, i'd take that early on and be happy for the northern crew. Sign here ___________Nut______________________

12z ops continue to show enough subtle changes that I was seeing yesterday wrt mid term to inspire some confidence in a legit window being opened mid/late next week. Thats as far as I'm looking for now (wrt Op/ens guidance). I dare say i'm liking what i see (keeping all disclaimers of climo/base state etc in mind.) Looks normalish and in this bass ackwards year of 2020, I'm all about normal.

or pot callin kettle.....

I know, but the look beyond is starting to look a little better, and I like many, don't pay too much attention beyond 10 days for lr maps. Tellies suggest a window and to me the maps are coming around to that idea. SER still there, but less ominous, and more zonal/nw flow which is far better to work with. Thats my takeaway right now....

I can roll w/ this....would be nice to see some clippers. Snowbelts likely approve as well.

Antecedent is cool but not cold. 850's not for SE 1/3 where most precip falls. That's why the frozen will be a thin stripe on NW periphery of qpf field until it gets further north through NNJ and into NE where it can get into colder airmass. If this storm happened in January, seeing the panels as they are on 12z's home team models, I'd be moderately giddy down here. Its early in the season and we're still cooling off in the N Hemisphere. That's my take anyway. Like I stated yesterday, elevation will likely have a few surprises on that NW side. Allentown to Poconos still look like best spots in our region to me.

lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020....

Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020.

Good to see you again bud. Cant wait to turn the calendar eh??

and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look. Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution). Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December.

12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:). GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed.

car and mulch topper in Lititz/Elm area on way to work.