pasnownut

And another.

Here’s one from the mtns

Approx 9” up on top here in Gaines. Really hard getting around. Still snowing a bit.

Happy Turk Day all! Hope we see some white this weekend. Headed to cabin tomorrow so I will be largely MIA till Wed. Hope everyone gets some action (snow too :). Nut

what horns??? sorry, no idea here.....Bash away. I'm a big boy and can take the beatin.

if one looks at the 6z gfs, that proves your point perfectly. Setup has always been somewhat skeptical to me with no troughing here in the east to let this thing fester. Progressive look says move along....not boom to my eye. I do think we potentially see some front side and backside (typical NW locals), but think thats about it. I wanna be wrong here so don't shoot me. Regardless it will feel like the season and for that I'm thankful. Happy pre Turk Day all. Lots to be thankful for. Nut edit - and when I say front side and back side, I mean just mood kinda stuff, but not much more than that (Typical LES might grab a couple inches).

wow....quite bullish for CTP to be tootin the snow horn this soon. Sure is good to hear.

Was out getting food for hunting camp. Thanks for the desert....boy now how do we make this verify? I'll be up north, but would be glad to see my southern crew get some love from above while I watch from afar. Sounds perverted does'nt it? Lol's fwiw i just peeked and CMC is showing some fun as well. If this holds until Friday, ya'll may need to dust off the shovels. Heck I even get into the action in Tioga. Should would be nice.

Has Voyager hacked your hard drive?? WTF??

if the trend at 500 continues, i think the surface depiction will latch onto what is happening above and we would see a correction at lower levels.

agreed. this one is worth watching #1 cause its the first of the year for many of us (i had my surprise first 1'' on Sunday) #2 cause many of us are off and will not have much else to do, other than walk off Turkey/stuffing.

50/50 is the way to do this IMO. get that to back in a little more and force this whole deal a bit further south and that would be a way to score. We need the ridging out front to get squashed/forced south. 50/50 would do that for us...or a good HP placement. I'd take either. I'm not picky. .

now that i hit refesh...well i'll be darned. Time to limit Turkey intake, as ya'll dont wanna be sleepy this weekend. Lots of model watching to be had.

Yeah i'm just looking over the 500 panels and it does seem to thwart the warm nose a bit. still needs to go about 100 miles south to make this really interesting. Plenty of time i guess. 540's are backing into NE Pa, and still may be able to collapse the column further in the coming days if we keep with the trends.

if anyone will cash in.....it'l likely be you. You just have a knack of pulling off nice totals out there. Plenty of time for this to change. Just nice to see something on the radar to track no matter the result.

Looking at last 6 runs of MSLP, yeah i guess it has trended somewhat S and E, but Id think it a bit of a stretch to get it under us. edit....as i keep watching, it may not bee too far off from doable.

Yeah it looks once beyond the 12/6 timeframe that the PAC ridge/ trough East seems to stay their right through the end. Doesn't appear crazy cold, but if timed right, cold enough to get a festive feel in the air. Tellies really dont really support what the GEFS is showing (in my mind anyway - mostly PNA), but enough neutrals to say....ok...maybe.

If one looks at the potential weekend event on the GFS, there's more than a little bouncing around on the surface low evolution, and it seems plausable that as we near and see a better track that the potential for the ULL to catch the surface as it really slows once it hits the coast. Get that surface low to ride a little further south and it could be a nice little surprise IMO.

Still rippin here

Nice. Looks good man. Hoping that Blizz and the NAM's are right and we see a little flakeage down here.

I'd take the muted WAR option and hope for bowling balls/clippers....UNLESS Bob's NAO theory is right and we can keep that in the neg phase. Then i'd take some ridging in the Atlantic to help turn anything that rides the boundary up our way.

NAO/EPO/AO....whatever it takes to get us snow. Gotta say that the 6z GEFS surely depicts the EPO on roids. Cross polar flow is a term that might need dusted off if that comes to light.

if one looks a the 500's wrt Op and Ens....they are notably different. Ens looks just fine for now, and for whatever one believes in LR guidance, I'll roll with the ENS (also because I like that look much more.)

Was just thinking the same thing. Once the calendar turns, the pattern looks to be capable of giving us a legit threat to track. 6Z GEFS for that general timeframe was perty imo.

TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut