pasnownut

and as I said the other day, the closer/quicker we get precip in here on the heels of the weekend rainer, the better, as any WAA will be coming into a cooler column, and thats how we can get frontended a bit. Based on GFS pattern, any appreciable frozen is not likely IMO. Taint too quickly. Gotta hope the Euro wins the day and we have a chance for some fun.

No you got it right. GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not). has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east. Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm. At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes. From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind. Welll thats how i do it anyway.

coming around are we.... Nice to see the Christmas warmup being muted to meh status. I think we all can take that. Just no skorts weather is all i ask anyway. Will be interesting to see the evolution of the NAO and EPAC in the coming days.

Really dont think you are off your rocker (weather wise anyway ). Especially if the LR looks that seem to be morphing into an active early winter pattern shaping up. Not saying blockbuster, but run of the mill offerings isnt as far fetched as some may think. Really liking seeing the NAO popping and the PNA heading pos. Split flow as some models are hinting at, can be fun times round here.

Based on what?? Please let us know what your seeing? Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity. NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases. Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud. I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future.

and to further your point, last year we had faux NAO projections which really mucked up some good periods (in addition the MJO that liked the #6). This year we actually have what appears to be legit opps at -NAO, and MJO moving along, which makes the base state much more workable when things line up right.

That's a great point to remind folks of. WRT to early next week, if we speed up a bit and keep it close on the heels of weekend rainier, that could keep the ridging in check for the wintry offerings to be in play for some of us.

@Atomixwx Way too early to speak with any finality about early next weeks outcome. If you are solely going off the GFS then sure, but Euro/CMC and Ukie all show a more southerly track of the primary, as flow at 500 are showing less ridging east of the Miss. If that system speeds up or stays close to weekend event, that will better the chance for more frozen. IMO we really wont know till Saturday as there will be a couple subtle shift that could have a notable impact on outcome. Its not far away from a decent event, even if we do taint. Stay tuned.

IF TPV drops in you may need said brick wall....

@psuhoffman After looking over op, gut says you may like 12z a bit more. This does have potential as wave spacing may be close enough from weekend deal that we have better flow out ahead and get some WAA loving from this deal.

was just parsing over 500/700 and less ridging (by a little), but a baby step imo.

Thats what my extrapolating mind was thinking. Spacing looks better and HP doing its dirty work in the east. Heres to hoping

Is it just me or does the GFS have a good look for follow up (at 96)? Liking trough axis for next vort coming out of SW. I guess we'll know shortly.

That's your answer right there. Its funny how those of us that have been hobbyists/pros for so long (25yrs of hobby/passion/learning for me) have seen this all too many times. Despite advances, Mo nature still and always holds the dealer hand. Advances are merely tools towards a hypothesis.

LOL I'll try anything to get my precious snow.

Yep...Lag effect which is just beyond and depending on base state, can last for some time. Not sure of the sensible correlation, but it beats playing with voodo dolls to get snow.

Saving lots of heartbreak. Seems like this year so far, keeping things inside a 10 day window has brought some sanity back to the board. Its unfortunate that we have to do that, but for now, may be the safest way to proceed. It sure is fun to look way out and see great looking patterns, but when they dont materialize, its not worth the pain. Better to be pleasantly surprised (like we currently are wrt next week - even if we miss - we still are close.

Boy wouldn't that make the spirits bright..... Regarding low solar, if memory serves it the period just beyond that is when max benefit and I thought we just hit bottom a couple weeks back? Maybe i read wrong but hoping Im right. That stuff is way above my pay grade, but like you, i find it rather intriguing.

Thankfully i was joking when i said it, as i was concerned you were too far west, based on last 2 days of trends. Waiting to hear how the chester/philly /md line crew faired as this appeared to be "their" storm...if you want to call it that. onto the big rainer.....then we wait for next week, as there seems to be a couple of decent events in the offing. SER seems to once again be a fly in the snow ointment and I hope it doesnt spoil too many parties this year. The flow pattern isnt a clean one IMO.

Im sitting in Etown and they got a nice dusting over here. Not clinging to everything like it was at my house though. At home we got about 1-1.5" and it looked rather pretty with everything frosted. Pretty morning.

yeah, I agree and figured we may get a few hours of snow, but rates have been my biggest concern as the ground truth is its just too warm for much to accum, cept for the the grassy surfaces. Trust, me I'm fine w/ eatin crow while looking at a snow covered landscape....cause I still win in the end.... i've got a new smoker, so I'll try anything once :). gnight gang.

Yeah i was traveling today and really didnt get to see but bits and pieces in the MA forum. If thats not enough, look at the Christmas miracle that a few op runs are throwing up.... Like I said, definately not a boring pattern and one that given enough opps...can produce. Biggest takeaway of late is that the warm signal that was showing up seems to be getting beat down pretty well, and NAO looks to trend to the negative as the month progresses. Just need the PNA to not go neg and we might be in for some fun. Last years cutterville express was hard on the stomach, and it would be nice to be looking to the south....and not the west for a change.

see my post from earlier. I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2". 41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain. meh I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry. Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop. We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me. Enjoy your snow gang. I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.

They do have good beer. Just sayin

I'll take your word for it......................