pasnownut

Just saw that. Yeah nice to see the Southern press of cold on our side as a result. While I'm not a fan of looking WAY out beyond d10, it appears to anchor in and hold through the end of the run.

Agreed. I think we looking at different ways to a better pattern (and for me just a serviceable one is all I'm asking for) as I'm a realist and dont waste any time wishing for things to happen. I just make a life making lemonade outta lemons if you will. As long as I see that blue blob in the SW, we literally and figuratively will be sweatin it out here in the east w/o help from AO/NAO domains. Just gotta hope that one or both come to save us.

with all due respect, give it 6 hrs.....

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here. There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia. I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen. NAO has been rather elusive at best. It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2. Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days. GEFS today says keep waiting.

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies. I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with. Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed. Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this. Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us. Thats all.

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here. If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas. If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game. Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods..... At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that....... While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

from my view at Ops, we have all but GFS showing a r to MAYBE s solution for LSV. GFS says cutter. As normal of late, boundary layers are marginal, so verbatim, I'd think we would see normally favored N and W locals getting in on frozen, and we ride the line in the lower LSV. 0z Nam continues to follow CMC and ICON path (looking merely for continuity/consensus) but 850's are not cool enough. Looks like enough qpf for some to overcome and wetbomb for favored locals (cashtown/mag/kx), but its another tough one down here IMO. If anyone wants snow again, go hug the CMC for all its worth, as it shows several chances to score next week, and storm number 3 for weekend of 1/10 extrapolated looks tasty. Mind you I only say this for eye candy right now, as we've been a little starved for nice looking storms around here. The good news is that there is enough lining up for next week to give any winter solutions some merit and worth watching (starting to get a bit footballed out anyway).

Thx Mag. Happy New Year to you and yours! Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window). Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible). Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same.

Hey Geez. Happy New Year! Yep, I'm a big lover of snow and snowmobiling. I like you, used to chase snow (Tug mostly, but Canada too). I purchased a cabin in 2007 in Tioga County PA and thats where I call home for my sledding fix. I too have spend a lot on sledding, but knew that once the cabin was purchased, that would end much of my chase as disposable income was used to reno it. No regrets whatsoever, but as I'm now 50, i'm getting too old to chase every weekend, but we still luck into decent sledding in Northern Pa, although last couple years have been a bit tough on the carbides. That said, yeah I suggested sometime back in the fall, that the "new norm" was throwing a wrench into analog usage, and the accuracy therein. I'm not sure this is necessarily the new norm as much as a new base state to use moving forward (as you suggest). One needs to be reminded that we've had many stretches of ugly over the last few decades. The difference is that we now have access to so much more data, that when something looks good, we tend to jump in and wanna believe, because we've evolved so much. As we are all weather enthusiasts, it's always best to remember that Mo Nature holds the cards, and is good at throwing wrenches into the best patterns/forecasts. On the flip side, look at how the southern mid atlantic has cashed in a couple years back, while northern PA couldnt buy a snowflake. Ebbs and flows of this sport/passion I guess. Here is to hoping that once beyond this next period of ugly (1/10-17 ish), that we can see signs of better sledding. Nut

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

Hey Matt. Happy New Year. Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest. Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result. MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2. Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder. Nut

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.

Yeah, I think we need to just work our way through mid week and see what the next cold shot can deliver. Beyond day 10 looks like an ugly ridge reload, but I'm not sweating it yet. Subtle changes will come....good or bad. Happy New Year to all.

Waiting for fam to get up, so I thought I'd snoop for weather gifts from Santa..... and hey, its not a 384hr panel....its down to 360, so odds have increased by .11114% of this verifying. Merry Christmas all! Nut

^^^what he said.

Merry Christmas/Haunakah....or whatever y'all do! Looks like a good few days to enjoy w/ family and friends as there isn't much to talk about. Safe travels and enjoy! Nut

Looks like we still start the trend back away from the heater on 12/26, but will take a few days until pattern resets. This has been consistantly showing up on guidance, and while I havent looked too deep today, still see nothing to change the concensus that we may start the New Year w/ better opps for snow. Lotsa blues showing up w/ 2m temps once beyond the 29th. Have a good night gang.

Guys, i'm out for the day. Time to start Christmas shopping (24 stops to clients in last 1 1/2 weeks has set me back a bit). Someone find us a snowstorm today! Ok?? Check back tonight, hopefully for a happy hour w/ cocktail or beer in hand.

That is a most excellent point. If I have a strength in this, its that I like to look at the WHOLE picture, to see how one affects the other (like i stated above). Unfortunately my meteo knowledge has boundaries, but part of me thinks that can work to my advantage, as like you suggest, focusing on 1 part of the picture can diminish the ability to see the whole picture. MJO scares me but as you know, base state is diff this year, so thats why I'm putting a little more weight on tellies for now.

Yeah, one thing for sure, is that even the best can be wrong....and to your point, that is the takeaway for all of us. NOONE has the answers....we all just enjoy looking for them. btw, Voyager can look all he wants for travel update here. Noone can blame him for that. I think he now understands that saying he hopes it doesnt happen because of his job is a kick in the kahunas to snow hounds. Of course we wish him safe travels.

thanks for "stopping in". To be clear, i'm not making a forecast, i'm making a correlation based on lack of dominant forcing and remembering how the MJO seemingly stuck a fork in much of our winter last year (to my eyes anyway reading your post above, you bring up stong points. In my eyes, I see the NAO forcing the TPV or parts of it underneath into the conus, hence my suspicion of ridging getting suppressed as we get beyond Christmas. IF that NAO signal diminishes (as we know it can), then I'm eating a lot of crow. Thats how I see one way out. PNA looks to go slightly + so that coupled w/ NAO heading favorable is only now being picked up on ENS guidance.

Warmish....?? Just kidding. You punting this week really threw me when you stated 1/3 of winter gone. Maybe you just had a bad day. I think the last 1/3 or your 1/3 is salvageable. That's all. No doubt this period is tough as we seemed to miss a window. Absolutely nothing wrong w/ calling it as you see it. Its all good dude. Lets move beyond and not crud up the disco thread w/ too much "banter" . I dont want to be called out for doing what Im not a fan of...but democracy rules in this sub forum.

If one looks at the middle/longer range on this AM's ensembles, you and Bubbles may have your wish. Once beyond Christmas, we go zonal, and IMO it is what I was alluding to when I stirred up the pot a bit several days ago. I guess some didnt see the tellies and what they were pointing to when the Op runs were screaming dumpster fire. IMO the adjustments we are seeing are a response to the tellies due to MJO signal not being strong enough to overtake the pattern. NAO/PNA and where they are heading are directly reflected in the last 2 days of LR adjustments on the ENS runs. NAO response it beating down the ridging in the east. PNA is forcing ridging in the west, and that split flow that keeps popping up is definately workable as long as it doesnt close off and carve a deep trough in the SW. BTW Bubbles....I still like you and hope your not mad at me forever. While I have my work cut out with converting you from warm to cold, you seem to know your shit. I respect that... Its just weather buddy.

Thanks for the kind words. In truth, up here it just seems meh'd over sometimes...and when I post down there, it sometimes leads to discussion. I will say that this year, it REALLY seems territorial/clicky down there. Bob, FRD, Showme and several others used to have good convos. This year down there I can say/suggest something, with no response....but if so and so says the very same thing, it gets all kinds of likes and commentary. I just chuckle and carry on...I don't do this for elite status, but I know a LITTLE bit about weather and pattern recognition . As most can tell, I'm not here for the like button on my posts, I'm a diehard weenie here to discuss weather (and of course make friends along the way-heck, I've "known" some here for over a decade...that's really cool stuff IMO). I'd love it nothing more than to stay here and have commentary from ANY/ALL of our posters, as that leads to well rounded discussions (and I truely mean that). No storms need named after me.....just give us the damn storm .