pasnownut

I couldnt agree more.....but some will see the rain and call it just another way to fail.... we all know who they are J I

Verbatim you see how we can still manage to lose even though things are "better". Reminder that while it probably verifies (even though i dont believe it)....its an Op run at 10 days out.

eagles out so.... x2

Cabin. Gaines Pa (15 miles W of Wellsboro). No sledding (although reports of folks riding - and few friend on the way to Potter to do so today/tomorrow, before we lose it all.....again). Late season muzzleloader is one of my favorite times to be afield....I dig primitive stuff, and love the fresh air of winter. Have a couple guys/my dad and my son coming up this and next weekend to do the same. Going to let the trees talk to me and take in the beauty of our northwoods. Hoping to be back up w/ sleds in next couple weeks though. I did Tug for many years prior to purchasing the cabin, but have spent my extra $$ making our cabin a cozy lodge, so bye bye Tug....but getting closer to complete so maybe Tug will be back in my future. f you love snow/snowmobiling, one needs to go up during a Lake Effect outbreak. It is C R A Z Y sh!t to witness. When its snowing too hard and snow is too deep to see trails/signs.....it is just AWESOME!! Ya'll need to add it to Snow Weenie Bucket list. I've sledded in 11'...yes....11' of powder up there. You couldn't stop sled, or it would sink (that really really sucks btw). Step off and sink to your chest. Yup....thats the good stuff.

Is this YOUR call............ I'm just playing around w/ yall. We all just need to keep it real as we see better days ahead, but one needs to proceed w/ caution, cause were always 1 indice away from crappin the bed....

Yeah, I've seen them being thrown around.... its hard not to want to buy in, but even if a portion of those to analog years verify, we'd be dancing in the streets.....clothing optional. Analog years are a HUGE resource, but as we all know....so so many pieces of the puzzle to factor in, and recent questions of their accuracy due to changing climate have some merit (in some minds anyway). Surely the more pieces we have in our favor over the coming days....the better. Continuity is what one needs to be looking for during the next few days. I"m going to be up north for a couple days, so I'll be looking from afar. Don't let me down guys....bring this change to our doorstep while I'm away. K?

I'm glad we see it the same. Yeah, we sure optimized a crack in the window earlier this week. No doubt and gotta love it when that happens. IF the recent updates on the MJO are correct/believable, and you roll forward the progression....it too would be another feather in our snow cap. Mersky in the MA forum rather boldy called this a couple days ago, and looking from the 10,000 ft view, one can see the logic in it. 7/8/1 is money phases for us. Concern i have w/ it, is that recent history suggests high amplitude MJO phases and progression in/out can be tricky. I'm sure MJO is factored into LR modelling, so what we see is a result of said indices factoring in, so in summary....proceed w/ caution.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying we are on the right side of the snow fence for EVERYTHING beyond D7, but if the pattern being advertised is real, the window of opportunity will be open much more than it has been for some time. If we set real/fair expatiations to win some lose some....we should be fine. We will be trackin for sure. I think the battlezone/boundary would vacillate in our general region, and in these types of deals, latitude is a big help. This is evident on the 500 panels, as a more zonal flow gets established w/ AO trending neutral and cold more readily available for us. One can see the wholesale shift in the regime. Something needed to change, and it appears to be doing so.

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct. Nice call for this one...if it verifies. Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play. Ask DT.

I'll not post maps as most know how/where to get them, but I'll say that if one parses over the 500's and 2m temp anomalies starting next Thursday/Friday and beyond, you will find the keys to the party wagon. GEPS/Euro still in better agreement. GEFS still diverges a bit (but still has opps for fun looks notably better at 500). Aleutian/Scandy ridges are looking good and you can see the cold press south into the conus as a result. This is a continuation of the last few days and i say that because its growing enough legs to be considered a real change. GFS Op at 6z as Blizz alluded to is borderline NSFW (compared to what we've been looking at), as it shows a lot of opportunities with several under us into the Carolinas. At this juncture that is just fine, as the takeaway is that the boundary is about to become favorable for the east coast, and cutters wont rule the day during this time. Blending the Ops and Ens, I'm rather excited to see what things look like next week. Rest up Blizz.....

Happens every year so let’s just embrace it and get shovels ready for later next week and beyond. starting to think our turnaround is growing momentum so hang in there gang. Post more later. Off to office

Yup. Uptick in activity and players realigning is all most rational weenies are looking at right now. Smh

So basically you want us to just stop using a long range threat to discuss long range....??. While most know better than to trust much beyond 240, we are smart enough to see the signs of better things coming and are glad to share/discuss long range stuff in a long range thread. you’re always welcome in banter

Back to the 30” or meh mindset are we??

Thats a great setup if it happens. Just nice to see a transition away from this upcoming hot mess and a medley of workable looks on Ens guidance moving beyond D7

Yeah after the last few days, that seems to be the day we start back into a more wintery regime. Still noteabe differences between GFS Ens so takeaway is somethings likely changing, EPS seems a bit quicker, and looks workable as well once beyond next week. Hope so.

BTW, i saw 17 deg at my house and 15 deg on car thermo in a little town called Rothsville (about 2 miles from my place). 22-25 was range coming into Etown (as snow got deeper as well). Beauty of a ride to work.

Happy belated bud! Beer stuck in snow is a great thing!!

I'm reading your posts and can see some of your logic/reasoning, but I'll say that you are 1 stall away in phase 6 from potentially eating a crap ton of crow....especially since the AO/NAO are not showing overwhelming signals to help your case. Mind you, I think that as they trend better coupled w/ prime climo and ridging showing up in Scandanavia it should help, and make your suggestions may have merit. While I/we dont know much about you....speaking in absolutes as you tend to do doesn't often bode well.....even for the best of the best. Just a suggestion.

just had both sleds out to check out the work I did on them. My eyeball says more like 3.5" here as there was plenty under my equipment and not really scratching through. then took dog for a walk through the fields to enjoy it a little more. Good stuff. Congrats York crew. Sounds like you are the winners.

Yep. Probably 3-4 years ago changes were made.

Intensity picking up here in Akron. wish me luck. Gonna need it. 2” eyeballing here.

Nice hat. Have one quite similar.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Just got home. Etown definitely had better rates. They have a whack at 4" IMO. Here in Akron/Ephrata, we may be at 1.5. Nowing nicely but we need some thumpin rates in the next 2 hours, but in truth, the Messo's have nailed this one so far wrt accums (base on reports), so if the pivot happens as modeled, we will not see more than 2". I'm still happy as a lark. Happy for all who cashed in.