pasnownut

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here. If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas. If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game. Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods..... At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that....... While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.

No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut

x 2 JB loves snow and weather. I appreciate his passion and insight. As much as he looks for how things may correct in our favor, he also has no problem saying how things change or bust. He has a better long range nose than most in the business. Nut