pasnownut

I never said it was a comfy coalition..... Truth told I think 18 or 0z will trim back on GFS and we hope n pray for CAD to do its dirty work for every hour we can (LSV crew)

Yavulll weenie rule #1 says look at ALL models and hug the sh!t outta the one that gives you the most snow. yo no likey da Ikon right now. (my Spanglish)

Not sure I’m totally buying the banded structure of first overrunning precip. ti my eyes decent lift in the dead zone says it should squeeze something out

GFS initialized at 1046

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. good luck.

Parsing over nooners. Looks like North America coalition vs the Germans. let's see what the Europeans have to say in a bit.

And after seeing 12 GFS I’ve decided to name my ship the USS GooFuS..... It’s a thermal defense destroyer. client meetings n travel today so bring it home gang.

If i drew it.....it'd be facing the other direction

and now you know why i asked for a banter thread......

and for other reference to see what the consensus is, here is GFS and one of the WRF nest at same timestamp. Saturday stays near or at freezing for LSV/CTP locals. I'd think a blended range to the mid 30s happens for a couple/few hours before frontal passage and we drop back for Sunday.

Going w/ 12k for 2m temps here is the "warmest" panel I could find for you. Verbatim, many in eastern 1/2 of state struggle to get to freezing. CAD is starting to show nicely in thermal profiles.

Looking over hi res/mesos from overnight still appears to be on track w/ my gut from a couple days ago. If one looks at WRF suite you'll see a bit more focus on front end loving before we taint. Once we taint, it appears to be a small window (speaking relative to LSV locals) for that to happen before column cools (which most precip is done by then so snizzle/flurries at the end. I've been riding this frozen ship for a couple days and will take the wheel wherever it goes. This is the reason I'm here, and as Flathead suggested, it is a place to share ideas and gain insight. I've got broad enough shoulders and a firm base to support them, so if I fail....i can take it. Trainer and i said 2-4 call from a few days back and think its a good call. NC mountains look to be winners w/ best go at 6". TGIFF gang.

That’s been my take from a couple days ago. We have a thin warm nose we are seeing in models and rates coupled with antecedent cold can help to keep this more frozen and less wet. I’ve never bought into the big snow totals (and still don’t after peeking g at 0z NAM.), but this has the look of a sleet fest for some of us. still keeping my win bar at 2-3” with sleet to be the icing on my snow cake.

Well stated.

yeah, york cashed in while nearby locals....notsomuch we got around 2.5 - 3" in northern lanco sorry flathead, canderson is correct

ok.....who put the wheel lock on TT website. We stuck

sounds much like I've been saying for the last 2 days wrt thermal boundaries and whos gettting what. Glad he agrees w/ me Still think less rain though. 18z NAM says so as well. I'll hug it for helping me be right w/ my guess.

Ask Voyager the builder.

was supposed to be back at cabin this weekend. Kid is on snow removal "standbye" so we had to cancel. Bumm r

If one looks at ens guidance nothings over. Some just need to take a break. Its old.

Yeah. Quite lol worthy. I only took time to post the maps because I wanted to try to suppress the influx of "its over" posts..... and in truth...we're still trying to get "it" started.

fwiw, the ENS and Op are having a little infighting going on..... just a little...

crazy how different a couple model runs can go. 6z was nuts in snow dept and now its going to be about 1/4 of that (of which most falls this weekend.

absolutely. It too ticked South w/ 540's, so while we dont need to trust it...we'll take the trend for sure. CAD also showing up a bit more early on.

While the ICON is frozen/non frozen with no ice component built in....watch the southern tick across the MD line. Thats what we want to see for a better frozen outcome (especially us south of the Turnpike). These are the trends i look for. While its small and maybe considered noise to some, when your living on the edge...its everything. 6z 12z