pasnownut

Agreed. I think we looking at different ways to a better pattern (and for me just a serviceable one is all I'm asking for) as I'm a realist and dont waste any time wishing for things to happen. I just make a life making lemonade outta lemons if you will. As long as I see that blue blob in the SW, we literally and figuratively will be sweatin it out here in the east w/o help from AO/NAO domains. Just gotta hope that one or both come to save us.

with all due respect, give it 6 hrs.....

I'm concerned that if you get your retrograde and there is no blocking.....its flip flop Feb. around here. There will be a ridge bridge alright, but it will be in the east starting in Venezuela right up to Nova Scotia. I mentioned the tellies, because when we see AO trending neut/neg, that is something that can and does happen. NAO has been rather elusive at best. It would be interesting to how many modeled and verified AO's vs NAO's have come to pass in the last decade or 2. Looking to see how and if ENS guidance starts to reflect AO in the next couple days. GEFS today says keep waiting.

I'm looking at current ENS guidance as well as tellies. I've been a fan of the AO and i've stated that in the last couple years, and in my mind, if we can shove that ridge east and couple it with -AO, thats a nice combo to play with. Tellies show that trending more favorable, so thats where my chips are headed. Point is there are more than a couple ways to do this. Im not judging whos right or whats best, I'm talking about what guidance is showing us. Thats all.

Yeah that definitely works, but when looping through the ens, it also seems to have that stubborn trough in the SW, and as Ens guidance started to show on yesterdays 12 GEFS, that Aleutian ridge showing signs of progressing east in my mind is a good thing as the trough axis suppresses any WAR and creates a boundary (albeit zonal) that can lead to some opportunities around here. If NAO/AO arent going to help much, that ridge moving east at least keeps the door open for cold intrusions into the central/eastern areas. If those last to mentioned indicies decide to help, then we really get a nice longwave track that gets us all in the game. Tellies suggest those 2 domains trend better for us.

I'm about ready to sacrifice something to the weather gods..... At least based on the stats you shared, we have around a 40% chance of a -AO, and the AO has been responsible for some decent stretches of winter so theres that....... While unfortunate that we will likely lose some of Jan, if we can come around in what is typically the easiest month for it to snow, we'd all take a normal to rockin Feb.

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.

No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut

x 2 JB loves snow and weather. I appreciate his passion and insight. As much as he looks for how things may correct in our favor, he also has no problem saying how things change or bust. He has a better long range nose than most in the business. Nut