pasnownut

Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge. Look at the last 2 years for example. Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event, IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together. While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair. Think about it.

they just call it sore ass for short.

Heeeyyyyyyyyy now your talkin

Uh....If that happens, I'm going down to the southeastern forum and virtually throat punchin someone.

Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year.

at least wear and tear/ maintenance on my sleds has been cheap this year. My grass is pretty F'd up tho.....

IF we cant laugh shit off....what else ya gonna do?

looking early on at 18z happy hour kickoff, one can see the effects of the HP up in Canada....it makes it to NE PA and its underwhelming for them. pun intended....that WILL cut it get it....cut it ya know cut to friggin SE WISCONSIN. UGGHHHHHHH

Can’t hit the like button but good post. No cold above us.....Miller Bs just suck more than normal.

get that column to collapse a bit and verbatim that's plenty close enough to overcome. the good new is that while not a flip to fantastic....a new look is looming in the LR and it should be better for our chances.

just thinking the same thing.

and with the frozen ground....YUK

Primary is killing this thing for many of us. that needs to die a quicker death, but why would it. Primarys die when the meet too much resistance (ie. cold). The less the resistance, the longer it lives. Nuff said....done....next

I"m old enough to remember many dud years, so while I'm down right now....I've/we've been down before. Big diff between now and then is that we didnt have easy access to computer models and "trusted" the radio weather forecasts. Now we can live and die 4 times a day and with more than a handful of useful models....thats alot of stressin. Maybe ignorance really is bliss....

little more ridging early on for Euro. Not getting a good feeling about the next panels....#stupidtrends

We think alike pal. Exactly what I’ve been doing. I spend lots And lots of toggle time on maps in search of trends. I do it with 500’s, thermals and surface evolution. This one started too close for the LSV Imo and didn’t take much to put many on edge.

well...its AT the 10 day window..... #BEASTT

wow....now that i think back, that was crazy and I'm sure rather scary for you first responders. I did drive across and see the carnage. hearing the pressure heaves....just spooky.

Neither did I....let alone in a personal reference. Now I'm nervous for my next impending screw up.....it's been known to happen. In truth its all good and why I love it here. Sharing our passion for weather. (and the occasional snowflake).

Thanks guys. While I'm not a bit happy about it, I'm too old to bullshit and this weather stuff is serious bizz for us weenies. Onward and eventually upward.....I hope. (watch this thing trend S/E and we get a shellackin). Yall can come down and I'll by a round or 2 for wasting all of your time w/ my nonsense. That said, its why I'm here. I love the chase.

Yeah, your last sentence is the unfortunate truth. While I'm no met and NEVER try to imply as such, I've done this for so long that i feel I've honed my senses/abilities enough to smell a rat if you will. I've beat the horse a bunch, but with Miller B's we need a cold mechanism close by to work with. While we are in peak climo and it is "officially" the easiest time to snow....this pattern is close but no cigar if you will. The last 2 years we've been in a predominant cutter pattern, and until one of the mentioned indicies works into our favor (or PNA) changes, were kinda stuck. Yes, we sure can score in less than stellar patterns (and some likely will this weekend), but we live on the latitude fringe of winter if you will. If this upcoming event were shifted just a bit further south and east, I'd shut my pie hole. It could be worse, we could be in the MA who really is shutout in situs like this. I don't say that in a demeaning way either.....they've got no chance verbatim. At least we are in the game....till were out.

and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border). Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N. Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested. Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead. Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO. Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. Gotta block da flo yo What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken..... all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.

lol i post and see Mags post above only after i hit submit. Hope your right Mag. You know a little bit more than I do.....

No blocking to the N....no way to slow/hold the storm down. Thats been my rub/ stance from early on. HP centered just east of us brings the southerly flow right up and ruins what marginal 850s were there. One then needs dynamics to overcome, and while they will, it will be more isolated/elevation driven vs widespread snowfall distribution. I've little doubt some on some mountaintops say "look at me and all of my snow", but by and large, lots of staring out the window waiting for most of us. Gang, this is just me and my feelings on storm evolution based on my 10,000' view...not a forecast. So wanna be wrong.