pasnownut

In other news, if the GFS is remotely close to correct, we are nowhere near done tracking. Plenty of decent events looming in the next couple weeks. Need cold air and towards the end (as always), it looks fun.

Getting to close for sizeable shifts, but yes, 25 -50 miles is possible and can make a big diff. for some. I've been out since Monday, so heck yeah, I'm rooting all of you on from the sidelines.

^^^^this well said.

Yeah if that look holds it’s a nice weekend to head north. GFS has been pretty consistent with LP just SE of us. actually rolling back through the last couple runs I’d say it looks better the last few. WSPT is sittin perty for this one.

Yeah I know. Some kind of cold mechanism has to show its hand soon or a much earlier transfer needs to occur to get 850s to crash for LSV to join the party IMO. I just don’t see another way. Isnt it weird to see me being all Debbie? Dont worry... I don’t like it either.

I won’t....I promise. I was in a weakened state. Sorry for mucking up a snow thread.

Not if ones lives in Lancaster County.

Just got off conference call. Not the "happy hour" kickoff we were hoping for. Hoping its just the NAM WAAYYY beyond useful range. Ugh.

and it was the GEM.....

Tried to explain that in my other forum this morning. With marginal and retreating antecedent cold....were cooked. Only winners would be elevation and max precip areas that are close enough to having column cool during best precip. The rest of us its the occasional spoonful of mashed taters at best. Boy i wanna be wrong on this one, cause we are starting to hear the tic toc of the winter clock.

12z shows the energy diving in that wants to get us the transfer. but IMO its gonna be really close around here. Shows primary dying off a bit sooner and transfer is cleaner than 6z. This IS a path to victory (for some). This is also the trend we need to see in the coming days. Sooner the better (transfer wise).

Thats definitely a better look. 6z gfs is where part of my worry came from . See below

FWIW, Z Germans make the transfer at 78, but the transfer is to southern tip of WVA. Us LSV'rs need antecedent cold to over preform w/ that track. Verbatim, LP does stay south, but its a nail biter, as it becomes an event that relies on heavy enough precip rates/dynamics to cool the column and support frozen. Again, N and NE look to be in best spot as per ICON (believe it if you dare )

for this to work for CTP we need to see something gettin ready to pops around VA. I dont see it.

#truth.

Oh boy this is dangerous but what the heck..... If one extrapolates the 12z NAM progression, you can see similarities of past weekend event. Primary too far West and North, and no sign of transfer. For this to work, it needs to be showing signs of that happening at the end of the run. I'm not seeing it (believe me....I want to though). Its a shame to see a 5 contour close LP at 500 "wasted" like that. Mag, Blizz, Trainer, Bubbles....anyone....tell me what I'm not seeing Mind you, I want everyone to know that I'm NOT saying I'm right, but I love for someone to discuss (which is what we do here) as to why I'm off my rocker. Take a peek back at Saturday NAM run for past weekend event and look at surface features.....it should raise an eyebrow.

you are correct. I'm sure someone can find the 500's from these storms and you'd see what a clean A orientation looks like. B's always have a transfer/jump to the coast as storms like to look for energy. That jump is usually right over/around where we live. When we have enough cold above, it creates a dome of stable cold air that the LP runs into (think of a wall), and gets pushed to the right (the next source of energy/food - Atlantic. This forces the transfer to the coast and bombogenesis occurs and NE usually says thank you. The stronger the cold mechanism above, the better the chance for a further south transfer, which alows the "new" LP time to mature and hit us. Hope that explanation helps any that needed it.

96 @sauss06 we can get good storms from B's - and we have, but in truth the frequency is much more common for us, but our best storms IMO are like examples posted above. Clean A's, triple phasers.

93

And FWIW I dont want to sound like a debbie, cause yall know thats not me. The benefit, is that this storm is coming at us from a bit more favorable direction, and has more of a chance to score, but we can also just find another way to fail (a way we are all too familiar with when its a miller B). MIller B's gotta be just right for the LSV. We all know that. Just trying to bring a bit of grounding into expectations. North and Northeast crew should be lickin their chops.

While I want this weekend to work out, as soon as i saw yesterdays midday runs start to delay the transfer a bit, i started to think we were out on this one. Without a good solid source of cold air to force a transfer under us, there is no reason to think the flow wont stay progressive and transfer is too late for us. A 1025hp 200 miles north of northern Maine does nothing to help block up the flow. Thats why when Blizz shared CTP's musings about the storm i started scratchin my noggin. In the longer range, it looks like pattern remains the same with decent storms every few days, but as the pattern is, we really need help from the AO/NAO domains to press the whole pattern south....otherwise...you know the drill. I will say that looking at the morning ens runs, its hard not to like the looks. We've been teased a plenty, so peruse with caution

Yes it does. Its a little less vigorous a system and ticked ever so slightly east of 0z. ............pulls some poker chips back in from center of table (even though thats not allowed)

Best takeaway from 12z gfs, was the major move towards a chance. CMC is close enough to consider. Still not having good cold supply and relying on dynamics is a sketchy proposition, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Yeah just look on phone. We really need cold to stick around later this week as this evolution would need to manufacture its own cold otherwise it’s a dynamically elevation driven snow event and plenty of cold rain elsewhere. Come on euro....