pasnownut

It’s melting......... 36 here. Hope cold front gets in the move to save our precious snow.

Zr here.

Big pingers with occasional flakes. While true snowfall did not quite add up, I love sleet. Worked out as I thought it would hoping for a little whitening on the back side. CAD held strong here. enjoy.

All sleet 28. no zr yet. My hopes have verified for a non rain event here.

About 1.5-2. Just switched. Pingers.

Still Snowing.

25 at 730 now 20 1” from round 1

25 at 730 now 20

Steady snow. Started at 8am. Happy happy. Time to Enjoy. out with smokepole. We are havin a blast.

Gut says 6zs will paint the picture As CAD almost becomes nowcasting as even Messi struggle to pick up duration.

Total storm qpf

FF at 850

Best forcing S and SW of them

Well you may like this one too.

Verbatim...You look pretty safe

That’s fine by me.

3k came south w frozen. Hoping it’s some snow then sleet. If Zr.......yuk

And TTs inclusive of sleet. Only sharing because frozen came south below MD

Hoping you are east enough to have enough CAD to pull it off. Thats why i've been hoping for a slightly weaker storm, as while we lose qpf...we also lose warm punch. Personally id take a cooler column w/ less qpf, than hoping rates overcome wet bulb (as Mag) suggested. Further east we may be deep enough for that to happen for a time, but eventually...we likely lose it.

Overruning type events tend to be a little ahead of models sometimes, so we'll take any advection snows we can get. I'm really hoping the gap between advection and the real deal narrows overnight for same reason, anything we can get before we lose the column keeps the chance at snow on the ground for a handful of days alive.

If...if that first batch is correctly modeled and we lose it to evap and low DPs....and the mids cook quickly.....well that’s the missle to the bow.

and full disclosure, while hugging the crap out of above, I think OTG totals are generally divisble by 2 as sleet and ZR will keep totals knocked down. Now time to pay attention to Mesos and hone in on 700 and below levels to see how they are initializing vs actual. Thats gonna pave the path to frozen. Also watch for CAD structure east of mtns and below MD line as we near go time. If my hunch is right you see a southern push to critical layers which is my path to victory. CAD erodes too quickly.....well you know how that goes. Will my battleship cruise into port with bands playin.....or get sunk from SS Submarine?

cause I'm a bonehead that tried to do it sitting in a parking lot.... better?? Looks like Horst hijacked the USS GooFuS special intel maps for his forecast

All aboard.......

The reasons you suggest is precisely why I watch the thermal boundaries. “Follow them and find your frozen” if you get my drift. While your CAD rule likely wins many bets....scenarios like this can/may be the exception with LP cutting so far W. This becomes a hybrid overrunning kinda scenario in my mind and warm punch often underperforms. guess we’ll know soon enough. Regardless I’m going to enjoy snow on the ground for a few days.