pasnownut

fwiw, the ENS and Op are having a little infighting going on..... just a little...

crazy how different a couple model runs can go. 6z was nuts in snow dept and now its going to be about 1/4 of that (of which most falls this weekend.

absolutely. It too ticked South w/ 540's, so while we dont need to trust it...we'll take the trend for sure. CAD also showing up a bit more early on.

While the ICON is frozen/non frozen with no ice component built in....watch the southern tick across the MD line. Thats what we want to see for a better frozen outcome (especially us south of the Turnpike). These are the trends i look for. While its small and maybe considered noise to some, when your living on the edge...its everything. 6z 12z

Just parsing through the rest of the storm on the ICON, and i've gotta say that it really trended better in the front and back. Toggle through and watch the 540's (critical thickness where snow likes to live). You can see CAD early on and then backside collapse as column cools. Verbatim, there would be some surprises in there. That's purely model reading btw....

Yeah it is a shame, but gut says tonight we "moisten" up a bit (my wife L O V E S that word ) so as Trainer suggests, we should have cold enough ground to save every flake/pellet we get.

we like you buddy

watch the critical 540's back in from the NE at 54. CAD is doin its thingy.... I personally DID NOT expect the ICON to do this. Little model fight going on. I hope Z Germans win this one

if memory serves me....yep

Lets all go over to fbook and troll the sh!t outta them I'm game

Thats a good one....

NAM has a habit of juicing up as we near, so yeah I agree. Still alot of time left and with something like this, we are in the battle zone, so wiggles make a big diff to ones backyard. I'd take 1" of snow and 1" of sleet. No problem.

Looking at the wonderful "snowfall" map, suggests to me that sleet is a big part of LSV "accums".

Stronger warm push north evident as 850s and we lose them when we need them during max qpf, so ZR likely unless warm layer is shallow enough to stay IP.

snowdome blocks wind too?

that is a definite possibility (location dependent). Lets hope mid/lower levels continue to cool...especially 850/925's as that where liquid freezes :). Really hoping for IP over ZR.

yeah, the 6z gfs was by far the best run of the year (go peek at snow map). If we can keep this look on the maps, there is a nice train of events for trackin in the next couple weeks.

Looks like the ens are starting to line up w/ the Ops as per blizz's map above. wrt overnights, cmc ticked north, 6z gfs ticked south, but it looks like turnpike and north mostly frozen w/ north and north of 80 seeing most white (while still seeing brief mixing. to me that 2-4 call with me closer to 2 and voyager and points north best whack at 4 or more. This is based off thermal fields and seeing them slowly eek south, which increases my confidence at frozen vs plain rain mixing in. Really looks like a decent amount of sleet for lower/mid suqu valley.

In the them of the all powerful Geenie...ask and you shall receive

0z Icon and GFS also ticked south a bit at 700/850 so ICE ICE baby may be the tune to sing yourselves to sleep w/. Gnight

I'm hoping/thinking everything you just stated as well. In truth, , you have a legit chance of this verifying just as you wish. Seeing the frozen lines continue to creep South gives hope to minimal non frozen (except for maybe far S/SW crew (and they are rather close to predominantly frozen events....just less snow and more ice Can you give me the Geenie lamp for the 1/25 event??

18z kuchera 0z kuchera

I’ve said it for days....wrt this system thermal profiles will determine what your backyard gets. Storm has been rather consistent in where it’s going. We still have 48 hrs to see how CAD and antecedent cold factor in. Systems like this can surprise as we approach game time. way too early to call anyone’s backyard.

Likely yes but “snowfall” on NAM is hard to distinguish. Voyager sits in a much more favorable location being northeast of the LSV. and that doesn’t mean he’s a big winner here, but 0z was rather similar with qpf distribution. that’s my point.

Keep wishing it away and you may end up right.....but no it didnt