pasnownut

Intensity picking up here in Akron. wish me luck. Gonna need it. 2” eyeballing here.

Nice hat. Have one quite similar.

Agreed. Lobes of cold running to the north with well timed vorts to the south can lead to multiple events like today. Pac flood if the ridge rolls over would suck arse. tts not a sustained cold pattern but one that give chances for snow. In a year like this, thats better than nothing.

Just got home. Etown definitely had better rates. They have a whack at 4" IMO. Here in Akron/Ephrata, we may be at 1.5. Nowing nicely but we need some thumpin rates in the next 2 hours, but in truth, the Messo's have nailed this one so far wrt accums (base on reports), so if the pivot happens as modeled, we will not see more than 2". I'm still happy as a lark. Happy for all who cashed in.

thats exactly what i heard on news while at lunch....thats when i chuckled and made my beer bet with my lunchmate as i knew we'd be getting a short duration thumping. He has lost so many bets w/ me over the years (hes a half empty glass kinda guy sometimes). almost makes it too easy...lol

Our driver just came back and said "its a mess".. nuff said.

I saw that and hope your right. Every extra flake we can salvage.

Yeah its ripping nicely here in ETown. Everything is white....roads included. Thanks to good rates....we overcame edit....the road i can see has caved....

Dude I’m glad your realistic. No better way to be. It’s repetitive crankiness sans weather discussion that triggers/d us die hard snow hounds. all good bud. Enjoy your flakes today. They will be gone by Friday.

Positive takeaway is that the LR consensus is now bouncing around, which we know implies potential change. Scandy ridging seems to be showing up more consistently, which implies a change upstairs. PSU's concern sure is a valid one, but as he and some of us have stated for a few weeks, there are multiple indices to consider in the LR guidance, so worrying about 1 (albeit a potentially big one) still doesnt mean we can't overcome so long as other players show up.

Yeah, I'd place my chips with them as well. Getting steadier here, but still has a way to go to get interesting. I just won a beer bet w/ a salesrep that is a PIAA official about tonights games being cancelled. He said no way and hour ago.... Now I'm deciding on what beer I'm ordering when we go out......#win

Really really light snowflakes starting to fall here in Etown. Good luck everyone.

He's like a champion bird dog..... for snow. keep sniffen em out bud.

Now THATS the Bubbler we all know and love

Unfortunately this one "wasn't for you". Dont worry, I live on the other side of that, so i know all too well how that feels. Maybe next one likes you more. Say what you will, but I'd trade places with you in a heartbeat. I LOVE Lyco and would live there in a heartbeat. Ever since college it had me.

If one looks over nooners so far, the guy who really needs to worry about getting jipped...... is me. based on LP evolution best forcing shows cashtown taking all the marbles again, and then Lanco snow dome goes into full effect. Nam's and GFS see this. Could just be noise, but....it has my attention. I think most here are going to enjoy a nice interlude between the episodes of ugliness.

as i posted yesterday, ENS guidance it starting to open doors for the way out of this crappy regime. Still concerned about a few things, but seeing the Aleutian and Scandy ridging changes gives hope that a new regime will be coming once we get beyond 10 days. Still a long ways out, so caution is definitely warranted.

yessir

Based on model consensus, I think slippy PM commute is a given. At T-6 hours to onset, I'm not sure enough can go wrong for a true miss for much of CTP/LSV. I wouldnt be suprisded to see nooners tick a bit S (based on years of model watching), but that still keeps most in the game (except maybe IPT). Thats just a hunch though. One of the nice things about this storm, is that its evolution has been similar to what we are traditionally used to, as it crept back to us inside 72hrs...which happens quite frequently.

Not worried about the warmth. DP's are low and while we may "lose" a bit of snow early on while column cools, your second bullet should "fix" that. Waaayyy down here in the LSV we MIGHT get a little bit of white rain, but I'd think it very minimal.

Yeah I’m just glad to see the consensus showing up. I’m not sure if I cracked 3” yet. beggars we are.

Wow, it really has been late to the party on this one, but verbatim is trying to bud in line to steal the dance w/ the class cutie... It is a typical bias of the GFS to lose then find the storm, so this isn't something new....even though the model is :). If one toggles through the 500's you can see it tucking in a little tighter to the coast and parsing over the ICON and NAM, they all have a somewhat similar evolution and consensus on this event. I'll gladly take it. Even if it is gone in a few days. Funny thing is there is enough time for another subtle shift or 2 (good or bad)

That's a very valid point. PAC is and has been the primary driver as we all know that's where our weather comes from, but you don't need a +2 PNA to get what we want if you can get the AO/NAO to get off their high horses (currently +3 and +1), and as they trend to neutral (or better), it doesn't take a ton of things right to score in prime climo (look at tomorrow night and next weeks potential warm spell buster - if it verifies). Mind you this doesn't scream snow in the streets for days either, but in a less than stellar year, you take what you can get and get over the rest - well at least that's how I roll..... On the bright side, my snowmobiles arent getting beat up. I'm really trying here guys so work with me

@Blizzard of 93What a way to ruin the warm fuzzy weather....boy Im sure this is pissin some off. Heck the Tug Hill is getting smoked right now. I didnt see that coming as I've been blinded by the doom n gloom of late....and yes, it is somewhat justified. Last couple days there have been several decent ensemble runs and another window amidst the warmth as the 18th through 20th appears to have a relaxation of the ridging here in the east, and the west appears to be realigning to a more workable scenario. This is per the GEPS. If one looks further out at the GEFS, you can see the Aleutian ridge progressing east and in turn a more broadbased flow establishes in the PAC NW. I'm not cherrypicking what i want to see, as I'm seeing both good, bad, ugly and better, and trying to sort through it all. Here is the GEFS showing better ridging out west and this isn't far from workable at all. Yes this is way out beyond where i like to look, and no this isnt a flip to crazy good, but its better. We all know its wash rinse repeat for the next 7-10 days, so there's no use beating the dead horse anymore. We just need to get over loosing another good week in hopes that winters staging some kind of comeback. AO and NAO both show some help and are trending down as we get beyond next week, so lets hope the models continue to adjust accordingly. MJO goes lower amplitude towards the COD, but still in warm phases, but as I stated some time back, as we have no overwhelming signals this year, we need to look at all signals, and blend as best as we can IMO. If one looks at the EPS at end of run, you can see the Scandy ridging established which would lend credence to the AO/NAO signals potentially having some merit. Like I said, i promised myself to not get invested beyond 240, but there is a strong enough signal to write off the mid term and look beyond for signs of winter. If we can sneak something in next week (which I'm a little skeptical about), it would be nice to help salvage something out of this ugly period.

Agreed. Scandinavian ridging looks less than last few runs and that really degraded the press of cold on "our side", as we know we need something to dislodge things upstairs. trough in SW is killin us and IF we cant get help from AO/NAO we are really reaching for how it can work. Just no way to sugarcoat it for now.