pasnownut

Couple raindrops w part 2. 35 deg.

FWIW Gfs was seeming to “Bring it back” early on as well. More ridging out ahead of it. Not sure it ends up being anything but it came across my mind when seeing it. edit-and just seeing what Bob posted about it being frozen is also a worry as ridging is the likely reason for seeing it pop but the byproduct is scouring our precious cold in advance. Just not a winning setup verbatim

light snowflakes falling...#mood snow

You're ahead of me by 1.899"

WRF/NAM's look rather similar so it may be a little bit of snow/ice before we change over. 2001kx and Voyager look to be in the fun zone.

I edited my bolded part after you got to it, as i changed snow to frozen, as that is the delineation that i was meaning to highlight

I've tried hard to forget, but thought it was 15 or 16. I do remember the temp though... 76

member that time a couple years ago.................. skorts for everyone..... thank goodness we will have plenty of liquids for hydration....

unfortunaely dp's are up so not much help there. Yeah, we need good rates to score frozen down here. Heh...just looked at the nooner NAM's and tippy top of Lanco flirts w/ frozen for round 2 through the whole next round. If you look at snow panels (and understand the flaws within) - one can see the wet/frozen lines - and thats what i use them for in situ's like this.

and to add to above, it was largely a rainer on GFS well into the weekend. If we can mute warmup a bit more, looks like a shot at white christmas for parts of I 80 and N. Here is the hot panel i'm concerned about.

boy i wish i was north of 80 tonight. Looks like a nice little event for them.

I'v always found it intriguing, how micro climates still exist within general regions (ie peidmont). While in general Trainers mindset of being burnt more than not is true for most everyone in the forum, like you stated someone still cashes in while others largely sit on sidelines...thats my point. In fairness to Trainer, it was always a light qpf event for part 1, but if you look in the MA forum, many are on the snow board this morning (best forcing was slated a little south of, so its understandable.

I cant argue w/ your fizzle part whatsoever. Mountains are like snow eatin monsters for us piedmont folk (in situ's like current one). In my mind there was enough forcing to get this done, but DP's were rather low and helped to gobble up what QPF was in them there snow clouds after the mountains got done w/ them. Forcing is there w/ round 2, so hang onto your thermals as long as you can, and take pics....cause south and east of 80-81, your gonna lose it fast. N and W of there, you may be fine, and actually build a little snow pack. Enjoy.

it would be funny to see us get our 1-2 by round 2 overdelivering. Snowing S and W of us right now so maybe we can score before we lose thermals.

Yeah you could see that part1 fizzled out in the last few model runs. With no good HP to the north to help squeeze out whatever WAA precip was headed here, it was smart to temper expectations. With Cashtown cashin in like usual, its not to say that this was a total bust, as he is SE of the mtns just like us....he just lives where it likes to snow. Good for you bud. Will be interesting to see if this weekends opportunity comes back on the models, as they've lost it (middle range normalcy??). Guess we'll find out in a couple days. Still feels like normal Dec. around here, and we're talkin about threats. All good by me. Just hoping next weeks warmup gets muted as the PAC seems to want to flood the conus with warmish air around Santa time.

Nothing here in the Lanco snowhole.... My 1-2" is in trouble.

Enough going on in the NAO space that we can see Episodes of it as the season progresses. Been a decent start so far and I’d think most sensible folk dont expect wall to wall winter.

12z NAMs say you may well be right. Much less taint as well, but still likely w/ part 2

NAM is good at drying up at this juncture. It’ll likely back tomorrow at this time.

Yeah, seems that if you took a 1/3 blend of each we'd be sittin perty. Gotta give props to @frd as he has been saying that we may see notable changes in the mid range and in....seems like he's onto something, no matter the result. Fun tracking ahead gang. Have a good rest of your day. Off to a holiday party.

this happens with WAA. I think as we close in, the models will come around...or we just see Meso's pick up on it closer to show time.

yeah thats a definite possibility with this deal. We are close either way.

One thing that is in our favor, is that WAA usually is under modeled, and we tend to overachieve with setups like this. I think thats what Blizzy is suggesting. You are sitting in a nice spot pal.

Bingo buddy boy.... E/W orientation pf WAA precip shield looks to limit Nward progression of thermal boundary. I do agree w/ Mr. Trainer guy that taint is also likely, even to some rain, but we are close to all frozen (as per GFS which has been the warm on in the group). IF the Euro stays south, I'm hedging bets that our first widespread wintery event happens on Monday. Upper air flow is conducive to it.

I've got NO probem with that. Seeing the nooners adjust slightly further south still says that we are close to at least an appreciable front end period of frozen, and it we get 2 more ticks south, would likely be mostly frozen as thermal boundary would likely follow south. Looking further beyond, a week from today all eyes could be on a pre Christmas doozy, that could give a white christmas to some that rarely see it. Looking forward to seeing how the pattern shakes out for next week and beyond. Fun times ahead.