pasnownut

Thx Mag. Happy New Year to you and yours! Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window). Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible). Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same.

Hey Geez. Happy New Year! Yep, I'm a big lover of snow and snowmobiling. I like you, used to chase snow (Tug mostly, but Canada too). I purchased a cabin in 2007 in Tioga County PA and thats where I call home for my sledding fix. I too have spend a lot on sledding, but knew that once the cabin was purchased, that would end much of my chase as disposable income was used to reno it. No regrets whatsoever, but as I'm now 50, i'm getting too old to chase every weekend, but we still luck into decent sledding in Northern Pa, although last couple years have been a bit tough on the carbides. That said, yeah I suggested sometime back in the fall, that the "new norm" was throwing a wrench into analog usage, and the accuracy therein. I'm not sure this is necessarily the new norm as much as a new base state to use moving forward (as you suggest). One needs to be reminded that we've had many stretches of ugly over the last few decades. The difference is that we now have access to so much more data, that when something looks good, we tend to jump in and wanna believe, because we've evolved so much. As we are all weather enthusiasts, it's always best to remember that Mo Nature holds the cards, and is good at throwing wrenches into the best patterns/forecasts. On the flip side, look at how the southern mid atlantic has cashed in a couple years back, while northern PA couldnt buy a snowflake. Ebbs and flows of this sport/passion I guess. Here is to hoping that once beyond this next period of ugly (1/10-17 ish), that we can see signs of better sledding. Nut

man, I'm tellin ya....its just hard to look at. Its just painful to look at the ens. runs and see the ugliness. Only sliver of hope I could find is that at least there is less cutoff in the SW, and the flow is more zonal, but any flexing of the WAR and we will cook.

Hey Matt. Happy New Year. Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest. Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result. MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2. Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder. Nut

this answers my (others) questions as to why the MJO wants to get stuck into warm phases. Makes sense for sure. Thanks for the insight.

Yeah, I think we need to just work our way through mid week and see what the next cold shot can deliver. Beyond day 10 looks like an ugly ridge reload, but I'm not sweating it yet. Subtle changes will come....good or bad. Happy New Year to all.

Waiting for fam to get up, so I thought I'd snoop for weather gifts from Santa..... and hey, its not a 384hr panel....its down to 360, so odds have increased by .11114% of this verifying. Merry Christmas all! Nut

^^^what he said.

No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut

x 2 JB loves snow and weather. I appreciate his passion and insight. As much as he looks for how things may correct in our favor, he also has no problem saying how things change or bust. He has a better long range nose than most in the business. Nut