pasnownut

I've become a fan of the AO in recent years, and we CAN do alright with that in our snow camp. Good to hear. add to that NAO headed neutral, and we can do ok w/ zonal bowling balls.

No...your just a wise old man....

Does anything?? Good luck down there gang. i hope you cherish every snowflake you see while looking out the window at 3 am... I'm sleeping through this one in hopes of a morning surprise.

Never had a good feeling about tonight and still don't. I think some late night mood snows that whiten the ground here and there are in the offing, but not much more than that. Post frontal has to be timed right and while column cools, we still have warm ground to overcome, and with light qpf, its going to be hard to get much out of it. I'm happy to be talking about it all the same. 2" pop in CASHTOWN is my bet and i'm stickin with it ;). (thats more of a joke btw). I said it in the MA forum yesterday that while there is no strong/overwhelming signal, there is enough in the neutral camp to not write of next week, but timing is even more critical. Looks like overnights timed next week favorably. Another one to track....i'm game. No shutout pattern is and has been my bar for many years, as I'm a realist. LIke mag said, NAO headed to neutral is workable if timed right. IMO we need the ridging out west to to stay neutral or +. Otherwise, we get a trough in the SW and without NAO/AO help....that never bodes well round here.

thats a neutral pna right there, and why we can still get something to come across and be close enough for something to watch. We've seen far worse looks. Not saying this is a snow pattern whatsoever, but its also not a close the shades/toaster bath either. While we all search for snow, above is quite normalish IMO.

Thats been in my mind as well. LR guidance has been challenging at best. With no dominant tellies (MJO AO etc.) to force anything good or bad, its more of a meh period that can still have a surprise or 2. In my mind, PAC firehose is biggest concern, and as long as we have +PNA things can break in our favor. That is about to go neutral, so a period of meh is likely.

Saw the 6z earlier at home, and yeah, thats what I was hoping for, a little south tick, as we all know how things "adjust" come go time. Hey, were inside 48 so its likely somethings happening, just need to see who gets lucky and who's watching. As I stated last evening, we typically struggle to get to cold enough down east of the blue ridge, but if rates get decent, we could get slush bombs for a while.

#coldbias I wanna believe, but we all know how these kinda deals work out. Cold seems to always be delayed until best precip has exited stage left... Boy I wanna be wrong for once

with NAM/GFS and Euro all coming around to the idea, I think we might have a legit threat here. Never a fan of changover deals here in the LSV, but with such a consensus, it's not impossible. I wish best accums were still south of the MD line for me to feel comfy. Looks like a Chambersburg to Allentown special IMO. Maybe a slushy inch or 2 down here if were lucky....but hey, even I get lucky once in a while....

12z GFS colder surface reflected in snowfall distribution as it also ticked SE. But if its still the GFS we know and love....its right where CTP wants it :). Going to get my tree today. Nice way to start the day. Have a good one gang.

fwiw, GFS is a tick colder thru 60 should help, and is only a couple ticks away from a nice little event to make it feel festive around here.

divide by 2 and I'm betting most would be happy. I am. Lets see if you can go 2 for 2 bud.

was thinking the same thing, as yeah this week is a rollercoaster w/ temp/precip/mood swings :)., then next week looks to be another step in the right direction. Still doesnt look to lock in, but flow thickness's are getting right that as long as we keep thrown precip this way, were gonna hit on some of them. Typical for our region...especially at this time of year. Beats the blazes outta warm n dry....

There is a half truth to that statement. Just because we got snow (well some/most) earlier this week, and most are on the proverbial snow board....it really is quite early to be knee deep in tracking, as climo says close be not quite yet. I will say it has been rather wintry up in the northern tier, as they've had multiple snow events, but southern tier is still a late fall feel. Looking at the nooners, says we should continue to progress towards show time round here. I'm happy to see normalish with no anomalous warm/cold. Good by me... for now....

all good. Carry on... Heres to a better tomorrow.

sorry wrong emoji. was just tryin to be inclusive. is this better? theres a little smartass in all of us. Just playin w/ ya. I dont envy any of you mods here. You all earn your keep/beer.

Thats what GEPS/EPS both show and part of what I mean by waiting. Verbaitim that ridging needs to retrograde a bit to get to what you are suggesting, but its not far away from decent

Looping the ensembles, gotta say thanks to the E PAC as there seems to be enough ridging and it really is trying to keep hope alive for use while we wait for the AO/NAO to get a better look to it. IMO as long as we keep that feature, we have a shot at something. GEPS/EPS look similar so thats a + to me. Mind you I'm just looking out to 10 days. Like PSU stated a while back any unfavorable looks seem to be brief/transient.

was just looking for the popcorn emoji when i read your post...SMH. Whats funny is that some think even this thread is debatable.... Thx for setting things straight. We owe you beers for all you do...but never see. Carry on. edit - Give that Mappy chick a beer too....

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter. I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow. Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise. All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens on precip panels :). edit - Just looked at the ENS run at same time and its nowhere close to the OP....but its better, so I'll hug it for now :).

Yeah, we can get screwed more than one way round here. That's for sure. Over the last few seasons, there's been more than enough southern fun for me to be jealous of those areas. Here's hoping we are in the thick of it this season.

One more for ya. Deer 1. Camp 0. Too much snow. Nothing was moving till yesterday when i was leaving.

and....now that I'm back (and digging out from emails/work), I'm looking for the next chance for snow (down here though). After frontal passage/ rainer, it looks to set the table for some love from above next weekend. Its at 10 days so it should be something to watch. Will dig in more in the next few days to see if this is legit. Lotsa catchin up to do. Nut